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A. R. Rotsevni's  Instablog

I am a private investor. I use and promote simplified analysis as the most understandable methodology for investment pricing. Investment selection rests almost exclusively on identifying highly skilled and motivated CEOs. I employ a simple benchmark for all investments, i.e. The Market... More
  • Carlisle Cos (NYSE-CSL) turns to lean manufacturing 0 comments
    Aug 26, 2009 08:43 AM | about stocks: CSL, DOV, GGG, ROP, ITW, JCI
    Carlisle Cos (NYSE-CSL) has since June '07 a new CEO, Dave Roberts who formally ran Graco (NYSE-GGG). While at GGG he boosted ROE from an already high low ~40's% to upper ~50's% which was reflected in a substantial rise in the stock price. His stated goal is to boost Revenue from $3bil ot $5bil and ROE from low teens% to mid-20's% in a 5yr time frame. Success at achieving these goals should result in $8/shr eps vs. ~$2/shr currently. Should inflation remain in check and the economy recover an est. of 5% Market Cap Rate (MCR) would predict parity pricing about $160/shr. Inflation of 4% vs. 2% estimated would give a MCR in the ~7% range and a stock price closer to $110-$115/shr range.
    The 2Q09 report indicates that Roberts is having success at implementing his lean mfg concept at CSL.
    CSL mainly manufactures rubber products (roofing and off road vehicle tires) and has smaller specialty truck trailer, wire harness and food service equipment businesses. Roberts is looking for acquisitions much like what Roper (NYSE-ROP), Dover (NYSE-DOV) and Danaher (NYSE-DHR) have used to build larger companies from multiple businesses by applying an efficient management process to under-managed situations. Roberts calls his process the COS.
    The author is long CSL, DOV, ROP, ITW, JCI and DHR which were bought within the last 12mos and expects to hold for the next 3yrs-5yrs.
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