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Henrique Simoes'  Instablog

Henrique Simoes
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  • Still Short Oil. Invite Your SO To Dinner. 0 comments
    May 15, 2009 7:03 AM | about stocks: USO, SPY

    Today I rolled over my June Crude Oil Future to July. The July contract will be the most active from today.


    Oil Futures have been a lot stronger then I expected. I attribute that to the upbeat sentiment in equities and in risky assets in general. But as I said before underlying conditions are bound to prevail and reality will set in and lower prices will follow.

    Will it be here and now? Will it be 5 dollars higher? I don`t know.

    Even though I am still short the NYMEX Crude Oil Futures at 59.42 dollars a barrel and I am very confident that this trade will be a good one.

    Have you noticed the collapse in the contango? Its under a dollar in a month period. This is the lowest contango I have seen in almost a year.

    Regarding equities I am still bearish and expecting lower prices ahead but I want to short the S&P Futures at higher levels. I can miss that trade if the stock market trades lower from here without rebounding, but I have a strong short position in oil and I would like to have a decent profit on that play before I commit any more capital to the market.

    I will leave you with one of my favourive market quotes from Richard D. Wyckoff, "speculation, in its truest sense, calls for antecipation."

    Have a nice trading day and if you are profitable today, withdraw some money and go out to dinner in a nice restaurant with your significant other. Trading is not a viable long term business if you don`t reward yourself and the ones surrounding you when things go well. Keep that in mind at all times.

    Oil Traders Blog is a website for active online futures traders. I will provide my real time trading decisions and my market thoughts on this webpage.

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