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CautiousInvestor
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With advanced degrees in both economics and finance, I place great deal of importance upon macreconomic developments and fundamental analyses of industries and individual companies In typical markets, I seek out investment themes which offer compelling reasons to invest in a group of like... More
  • This may get real ugly (Marketwatch) 3 comments
    May 19, 2010 1:41 PM

    Dan Sullivan, editor of two investment advisory services -- The Chartist and the Chartist Mutual Fund Letter -- emailed clients last night that he was changing his recommendation from being 100% invested in equities to being completely in cash.

    This move should give bulls pause, given Sullivan's track record: He has done an outstanding job of timing the stock market over the past three years. He got out of stocks early in the 2007-2009 bear market for example -- in January 2008, in fact.

    And he got back into stocks soon after the bull market began (in April 2009), and -- except for one brief retreat to cash in the summer of 2009 -- has remained steadfastly bullish ever since.

    Until today.

    In going to cash, Sullivan joins Richard Russell, editor of Dow Theory Letters, who also is firmly in the bearish camp. This past weekend, Russell sent to his clients an unusually apocalyptic message:

    "Do your friends a favor. Tell them to 'batten down the hatches' because there's a HARD RAIN coming. Tell them to get out of debt and sell anything they can sell (and don't need) in order to get liquid. Tell them that Richard Russell says that by the end of this year they won't recognize the country."

    Contrarians may be the only ones to find a silver lining in this very gray cloud, since it means that there is now an even more formidable wall of worry that a bull market could climb

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Comments (3)
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  • Thanks for the reference to Dan Sullivan and his view.

     

    We believe we could head into trouble very soon. Looking at credit markets and you temped to say something is cooking - and it doesn't smell good. Credit spreads are moving higher and breaking significantly away from their one-year rolling mean which has never been a good sign.
    bit.ly/96IE6L

     

    Have a good weekend.

     

    /Peter
    12 Nov 2010, 10:21 AM Reply Like
  • Spooky. When I read this article I thought it was current. Maybe we should just change the date?
    3 Jul 2012, 03:50 AM Reply Like
  • Being ahead of your time is indistinguishable from being wrong.
    12 Jun 2013, 08:50 PM Reply Like
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