Ted Stamas'  Instablog

Ted Stamas
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Degree in business administration from Ithaca College in Ithaca, New York. Been investing over 25 years, and writing in various formats for 30 years. Primarily investing in technology, focusing on wireless sector. Trade infrequently. Twitter handle is @TedStamas
My blog:
The Ithaca Experiment
  • Psychotic Reaction 0 comments
    Aug 3, 2011 8:22 AM

    The market seems to have turned tail the past few weeks after being oiled up and running hot. In reality, the indices have treaded water since the beginning of the year. As an example, the S&P 500 closed at 1,254 yesterday, August 2nd, and, opened at 1,257 on January 3rd. Not much to write home about.

    For the past seven months I've maintained my position that the markets will head lower because of the questionable sovereign debt situation and the slow growth in the economy. My two year investments in ProShares UltraShort S&P 500 (NYSEARCA:SDS) and Direxion Daily Small Cap Bear 3X Shares (NYSEARCA:TZA) have not paid off the way I expected them to do. In fact, on paper I've lost money, but I still believe we are in for a double dip recession, if not go lower than the market trough in March of 2009, so I just roll with it.

    For the past seven months I've been researching securities that I believe are part of the changing of the guard in green technology, cloud computing and biotechnology. Some of these stocks are forces to be reckoned with. Can put a real charge in your portfolio if bought at the opportune time. For the most part, they seem overvalued with extremely high P/E ratios because of the momentum behind much of the hype that surrounds them. That's why I want to bide my time and wait for them to come on down to much more reasonable valuations. Here is a list of the majority of the stocks I've covered and their performance since the original article:

    APKT 75 4/7/11 55.35 -26.2
    ARUN 28 6/1/11 22.16 -20.86
    ATHN 45 3/5/11 59.43 32.07
    CELG 53 2/16/11 57.29 8.09
    CRM 140 2/17/11 143.26 2.33
    DLB 48 4/2/11 40.55 -15.52
    FFIV 95 4/2/11 40.55 -15.52
    HOLX 20.50 4/18/11 17.46 -5.06
    ILMN 70 3/1/11 58.65 -16.21
    ITRI 48 6/10/11 41.82 -12.88
    NTAP 54 5/15/11 44.94 -16.78
    NUAN 18 3/9/11 19.04 5.78
    NVDA 18 5/23/11 14.42 -19.89
    PAY 55 4/8/11 39.39 -28.38
    SEAC 9 3/21/11 9.33 3.67
    STP 8 3/21/11 7.24 -9.50
    TIBX 30 5/10/11 26.16 -12.80
    UTHR 65 3/23/11 55.37 -14.82
    VECO 52 2/23/11 36.15 -30.48
    VMW 93 5/8/11 95.07 2.23

    These were all hot stocks from one time to another and rightfully so. They are all they're cracked up to be as far as technology is concerned. If and when the market keels over, these equities will prove to be more than a flash-in-the-pan and could be industry leaders for the next 5-10 years. Essentially, this is a partial watch list for what I'd like to purchase once the S&P 500 gets down to a more reasonable fundamental level. Right now we are in a prolonged period of uncertainty and I prefer to let my short positions run and build up my cash reserves.

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