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I am a daily activist in the market. I hold a few great stocks for a long time and trade non great stocks daily. I believe one should only act in the market on information that they Know. Not what one Hopes will happen or what they Think will happen. This simple philosophy has saved me from... More
  • Risks Of Owning Axion- A Discussion 65 comments
    May 17, 2012 6:50 AM

    An Outline of the Risk of Stock Ownership in Axion Power, International (OTCQB:AXPW)

    BY:

    FUTURIST

    5/12/12

    This article is written simply as a discussion tool for the owners of Axion stock. There has been an attack on Axion shareholders by a few disgruntled persons on the message board of Yahoo.com.

    It is fairly obvious that these disgruntled persons are indeed one or more of the original Mega C corporation that ended up owning a company that could not afford to pay the scientist for their knowledge or patents. Axion shareholders converse on the Axion Concentrator instablog of SeekingAlpha.com. A few of these negative shareholders have tried to join in the conversation. Always being drummed out due to their negativity has drawn criticism that the Concentrator contributors never look at real world risk. I disagree with that theory. I believe most Axionistas ( as we call ourselves) are level headed investors that understand markets and risk. But, in order to formally discuss risk, as an Axion Shareholder I offer the following article for your perusal or comment. I do not expect that its submission will allow the previously banned negative posters to contribute as they are only prone to personal attack.

    1. Micro cap risk

      AXPW.ob is a publicly held stock that trades on the Over the Counter market. In 2003 the company was a privately held company that purchased the patent and full rights to a technology developed by a few Russian scientist. Their discovery was that if you replaced the negative lead electrode in a standard lead acid battery, with a negative electrode made of carbon, then the battery would act as a capacitor and a battery. It should give one the power of a lead acid battery and the quickness of accepting and releasing a charge normally reserved to a capacitor. Thus was born the PbC, " a multi-celled asymmetrically supercapacitive lead-acid-carbon hybrid battery.

    The team of entrepreneurs decided to try and commercially develop a way to make the negative electrode and sell them to current battery manufacturers. Thus manufacturers all around the world could order the electrodes and compete in selling the PbC battery. PbC is the trade name now used for the asymmetrical capacitor. Pb is the symbol for lead. C is the symbol for Carbon.

    In 2003 a group of original investors realized that it would take about 30 Million dollars to secure the patents, go public, and develop the PbC to commercialization. To do this they contacted an attorney named John Petersen, who specialized in small firm start -ups. He happen to control an SEC clean publicly owned shell corporation called Tamboril Cigar Company. The shell was purchased and the name changed to Axion Power International. John Petersen later was named Chairman of the Board of Directors. The history of the company is found in this article entitled Axion: Against all odds posted on the Axion Website

    ( http://www.b2i.cc/Document/1933/120330.pdf). I mention this for two reasons. First so everyone understands that Axion Power is a legitimate publicly traded stock company that has no relation to a Cigar company except that they took over a functioning shell corporation. Second that John Petersen was a respected attorney that earned the position of Chairman of the board and has no status or connection to the company now. Except as a significant shareholder. Much negative criticism has been received by Mr. Petersen due to his writing and support of Axion Power since his departure 4 years ago.

    As a matter of risk, small micro cap stocks are very risky. Axion initially had 30 Million to buy the needed patents ,set up a team of engineers and scientist, and develop their commercialized product. To date they have been woefully slow in achieving their goal. As of the end of the 2011 fiscal year Axion has spent $76 Million to develop the PbC. More than double what they planned. This is not unusual for microcap stocks. Often well laid plans take twice as long as necessary and cost more than twice as much as expected. Axion is still not breaking even on a cash flow basis. They are not expected to until the last quarter of 2013. The risk of not being able to meet funding needs is the largest risk of Axion. They have enough money today to continue their existence until the first quarter of 2013.

    1. Product acceptance:

    Axion's second largest risk is that of not developing a product the world wants. Making a better mousetrap does not guarantee success. A better mousetrap needs to compete effectively with the old mousetrap. If you go to a hardware store and go to the mousetrap isle you will find many types of traps.

    The old fashion wood base trap with a single hinged spring cost about $.50 and are very effective.

    Its a little messy for picking up and disposal. Cheapskates that want to reuse the trap have to ward off touching the dead mouse in the disposal process. As an aside ,one reason for the success of this product is the fact that people simply throw the mouse and all in the trash. After all its only $.50. A simple google search will show mousetraps of every other variety on sale from $3 each to $85 each.

    From the looks of it many companies have tried to build a better mousetrap. I'm sure some are better. But there is risk in simply not being able to beat the competitors price.

    3. RISK OF PRICE

    Axion is competing with a standard lead acid battery that sells for around $65. An AGM battery sells for $125. It has been estimated that a PbC will sell for around $250. Now a PbC lasts five times longer than an LAB. It has never died, as far as published material can show, when discharging at a rate above full depth of discharge. It has several qualities that mimic the benefits of lithium batteries that would cost 3-5 times the cost of a PBC.

    So there is risk is that the product will not be accepted. This risk is now tempered because Norfolk Southern has accepted the product to install for testing in its hybrid locomotive program. The Navy has accepted the product for testing in its zero energy use building. BMW has been testing and not dismissing this product for its Start/stop systems for three years. Viridity energy and PJM have joined with Axion to be the first "behind the meter" battery storage product that actually can be used to sell electricity back to the utility. This provides cash flow to the owner and allows the utility to spend less money in capital expenditures.

    Each investor must establish whether the product is at risk of failure or non acceptance. This is simply a fact that has to be addressed. Some don't believe the product is a better mousetrap that will be accepted and some believe it is the best value mousetrap on the planet.

    4) Commercialization

    Axion"s initial plans were to build the negative electrode on a very fast robotic assembly line starting in 2009-2010. Excitement was everywhere because the ability to manufacture in quantity was soon to be here. But something went terribly wrong. The process of making a negative electrode out of carbon instead of lead proved difficult. So difficult that the first Gen 1 electrode assembly line was scrapped. A Gen 2 line was ordered and installed. This new line has been tweaked all through 2011. The CEO reports that it could now be duplicated and large numbers of products could be made. That's a nice thought but until you try to manufacture one million of anything, with low fault error, you simply don't know if it can be done, until you complete the task. Risk exists. According to the latest Conference Calls the risk is low. Yet, the risks exist.

    5) World wide political and economic risks.

    As with any company a world wide recession can have detrimental effects on Axion. Axion presently produces a majority of it's revenues from making old fashion lead acid batteries for another battery company. A meltdown could cost Axion 75% of its revenues. Likewise a European meltdown could stop BMW from progressing to implement an Axion solution. Governments could ease pollution restraints in response to an economic collapse. A better battery would not be needed because the economics could change. A driving force for the adoption of the PbC is its ability to save fuel for automotive, rail, housing, and renewable energy storage. All which are fueled by environmental concerns. Politics and economics are strange bedfellows. For now the world seems to believe in saving the environment and money by burning less oil. The PbC might help. But if political forces change, so could the fortunes Axion Power, Int.

    CONCLUSION

    Each and every shareholder of a microcap company must identify the risks of the investment. When one looks at the disruptive technology that Axion has developed and compare that with the rest of the industry a conclusion can be drawn that the risks are in the shareholders favor.

    Disclosure: I am long OTCQB:AXPW.

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Comments (65)
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  • CO3
    , contributor
    Comments (244) | Send Message
     
    Well done, Thanks
    16 May 2012, 10:16 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2224) | Send Message
     
    Great overview of the major risks. Drilling down a little bit as I contemplate the risks I believe the biggest risk to Axion is the time required for market acceptance. Their 10Q states plainly that market acceptance has been slower than anticipated. Part of the reason for the slow market acceptance is probably due to the unique qualities of the PbC. A presumed high rate (about 1% a day) of self-discharge. Another is the lower energy content compared to standard lead acid batteries. One third of the lead is replaced with carbon electrodes, hence the lower energy content. It simply won't provide as much standby power, plus if it is in standby mode for a long term as a UPS supply the battery could completely self-discharge by the time it is called upon to supply emergency power.

     

    Third, the voltage declines from 12V or 16V in a steady ramp down from fully charged to fully discharged. A standard lead acid battery provides a steady 12V until it is nearly fully discharged. Fourth, utilizing the battery requires a custom design versus a drop in replacement within a system designed for a steady voltage. Collectively all these characteristics slow utilization of the battery in various systems. "You mean I can't just buy it and drop it into the systems we already make? I've got to design the whole system over?"

     

    So what good is the battery? It delivers much more power than a standard lead acid battery, it recharges ten times faster or so, and it accepts much higher levels of power when charging. It also cycles (from full to empty and back to full) many more times than standard lead acid batteries with out the self-destructive effect of destroying the negative electrode as a result of increasing chemical deposits on the negative electrode in standard lead acid batteries as it is cycled.

     

    Those growing chemical deposits are the main failure mechanism of standard lead acid batteries and they are unavoidable in a battery with lead in the negative electrode. The PbC battery avoids this failure mechanism because the negative electrode is made of carbon.

     

    If you have a means of rapidly cycling the battery (quickly shifting from discharging to charging) you quickly eliminate its negatives (lower total energy, self-discharge, voltage decline as the battery's charge is depleted) and you gain its benefits: High power output, high dynamic charge acceptance, and much longer battery life versus standard lead acid batteries. The sales and marketing challenge is identifying applications that benefit from these characteristics and convincing a company to invest in designing a system to utilize these unique benefits for their application.

     

    An example of an application that benefits from this characteristic is a battery powered locomotive that captures energy from braking and converts it to a current that charges the battery when going down hill and the uses the captured charge to help push the train up the next hill, then doing that over and over again as the train travels.

     

    The end result is that it takes time for organizations to discover the PbC, determine if it might be useful to them, allocate people and funds to design a system to utilize the battery, test the system and then adopt it on a large scale. This is a multi-year process for every application.

     

    Then there are other alternatives to saving fuel with a railroad that will compete with the PbC solution like the many forms of mouse traps cited above. There are also other batteries to consider like lithium ion. Trade off and test programs with each possible battery solution. It is a long process. The same is true for every other potential PbC battery application.

     

    Consequently, I see the greatest risk to Axion being the possibility that it cannot raise the funds needed to endure this long process until the company's sales produce profitable revenues. Every succeeding Axion capital raise has been at lower prices per share. $26M at .57 cents a share. 9M at .35 cents a share. Without a higher stock price to discount to investors who purchase the new shares the investment funds simply dry up.

     

    The price of the stock could sink to a level that simply will not support additional capital raises, or the capital that can be raised could simply be to little to support the needs of the company, or the terms could be so onerous that Axion is unwilling as a corporation to accept them. Investors will only finance a business that is not steadily increasing revenues for so long before there are simply no investors with any interest in putting additional funds into the company.

     

    In a nutshell the battery has unique properties that are very beneficial in certain applications. The big risk is that Axion simply doesn't achieve enough revenue growth in time to attract the additional capital required to sustain the company and grow the business until it reaches profitability.

     

    Then there are all the macro economic and political risks you cited above Futurist. Axion is currently a high risk speculative investment and will remain so until its revenues are great enough to insure sufficient capital to sustain it to profitability.
    16 May 2012, 11:54 PM Reply Like
  • Mathieu Malecot
    , contributor
    Comments (956) | Send Message
     
    agreed, biggest risk is lack of cash to keep playing the waiting game. this can lead to unfavorable partnerships as well as flat out bankruptcy. that said, it was management's ability to make very good use of cash on hand that got me buying.
    17 May 2012, 01:36 AM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2128) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Excellent points Bang,
    Your points on the technology issues is well taken. A carbon electrode allows such a long cycle life and such high charge acceptance at such an affordable price, it would appear to be headed for successful commercialization. You have my interest piqued as to the self discharge rate. I see little problem but you are correct. It poses some risk.
    17 May 2012, 06:23 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29176) | Send Message
     
    Self discharge is only an issue if a battery isn't connected to a power source. A car sitting in an airport parking lot for three weeks is a good example. It's not an issue for anything that's connected to the power system, such as a UPS.
    17 May 2012, 08:13 AM Reply Like
  • carlosgaviria
    , contributor
    Comments (775) | Send Message
     
    FUTURIST & BAN
    Futurist excellent article. Bangwhiz: excellent his comment.
    Now I have the feeling that both the risks and benefits are in the conscious of investors.
    Have a nice day.
    17 May 2012, 08:57 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (16953) | Send Message
     
    "plus if it is in standby mode for a long term as a UPS supply the battery could completely self-discharge by the time it is called upon to supply emergency power"

     

    SOP is that UPSs are connected to grid to receive power as needed in standby mode. The BMS keeps them "topped off". So risk of full self-discharge is low unless there is no power available for an extended time.

     

    An excellent set of considerations though.

     

    HardToLove
    17 May 2012, 09:15 AM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2128) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » And a car sitting in the parking lot for three weeks isn't an issue if the S/S system has a small lead acid starter battery.
    HMMM. Just like the white paper proposed.

     

    Its tough to get ahead of the PbC guys at Axion.
    17 May 2012, 02:29 PM Reply Like
  • magounsq
    , contributor
    Comments (964) | Send Message
     
    bangwhiz

     

    "... biggest risk to Axion is the time required for market acceptance. ...
    The end result is that it takes time for organizations to discover the PbC..."

     

    Bingo!
    17 May 2012, 04:56 PM Reply Like
  • KentG
    , contributor
    Comments (367) | Send Message
     
    Nice job Futurist, thanks for the test drive as well. 8-)
    17 May 2012, 01:05 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9482) | Send Message
     
    Futurist: Wonderful spin on risk. Well done!

     

    However, a common mistake, and one which I've made, is that (I'm pretty sure, and may have this bass ackwards) the robotic Gen2 line does not make the cathode. It produces the electrode. Epson makes the robots.

     

    Twice I have visited Axion HQs. I still haven't seen, or cannot recall where the activated carbon cathode is made. But I was so wide-eyed grasshopper green, gulping in all the info I could, I may have seen it, and did not know what I was seeing.

     

    Top on my list this shareholders conference is to learn just that, to iron this out. How the eff could I not for sure know? Embarrassing.

     

    Bang: Great comment!
    17 May 2012, 01:30 AM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2128) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Maya,
    Not sure where I inferred "cathode" but I suspect when I called the Electrode the "negative plate" that was the error. I corrected that flaw. I simply think of the negative electrode as a series of carbon plates stacked together. I'm sure that is not a very proper technical description.
    I look forward to viewing the plant together this June.
    17 May 2012, 06:26 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8492) | Send Message
     
    Thanks for the article Futurist. Nice job!

     

    Hey, If you don't provide specifics concerning charging or discharging you can't be wrong. Convention is during discharge though.

     

    "Beware of some tricky terminology:

     

    During the discharge operation, the “-” plate is called the anode (since the plate material is being oxidized), while the “+” plate is called the cathode (since the plate material is being reduced).
    During the charge operation, the “-” plate must now be called the cathode (since the plate material is now being reduced), while the “+” plate must now be called the anode (since the plate material is now being reduced)."

     

    Hey, If you don't provide specifics on charging or discharging you can't be wrong. Convention is during discharge though.

     

    http://bit.ly/L30Od0
    17 May 2012, 11:29 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29176) | Send Message
     
    It's distinctions like that one that make people crazy Iindelco. If you don't mind I'll stick with the lead-based positive plate and a carbon electrode assembly for the negative. That way I can't screw it up too bad.
    17 May 2012, 12:29 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8492) | Send Message
     
    Yeah John, I had to hear for years while being educated about electron flow, "BUT you have to use hole flow theory if you work for the US Navy". It is also now used heavily in the semiconductor industry.

     

    Yeah, things just aren't as clear in the science fields as they are in the legal field! (Now you had better get at least a snicker out of that one.)
    Oh, And I don't want any snide remarks about particle physics.

     

    All in all, I think your method is a sound one.
    17 May 2012, 12:46 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29176) | Send Message
     
    The biggest risks from my perspective have always flowed from the fact that the PbC is a fundamentally different technology platform in an industry where most innovations are simple re-formulations of an existing technology developed by somebody else.

     

    A simple analogy from the computer world highlights the difference. A PC and a Macintosh are both boxes of chips, processors and electronics that manipulate data, but they do so in fundamentally different ways. While there are lots of users who could make their lives easier and more productive by switching to a Mac, it takes a while to understand that there is a fundamental difference and even longer to make a switch from the known and familiar to the unknown and different. It's an education process but mercifully many of the most exciting new user needs are better served by the Mac.
    17 May 2012, 02:47 AM Reply Like
  • Stilldazed
    , contributor
    Comments (2046) | Send Message
     
    Futurist and JP,
    Thanks for the article and insight. JP, if you ever want more controversy than your EV articles just compare APPL and Microsoft or Linux. :-)
    17 May 2012, 03:10 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29176) | Send Message
     
    I've been a Mac User since 1988 and am proud to say that I don't know the first thing about computers. I turn mine on and it does what I want it to do. When I get a frowny face I take it to the shop. I'm always amazed at how stupid I feel when I try to use somebody's Windows-based machine.
    17 May 2012, 04:59 AM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2128) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » In trying to understand your description of the risk I worded it this way.

     

    There is risk in the marketplace, that fundamental technological changes will not be widely adopted, because they are simply different.

     

    I consider myself a value shopper. It is rare I buy anything without understanding the short term price and the long term value. Businesses buying millions of dollars worth of batteries cannot afford to look the other way if a new fangled lead acid battery can do the job cheaper and better.
    I have never bought a MAC. My computer use never justified the price difference. I think what I'm trying to say is that "cheap beats cool most everyday" . I like the fact that the PbC is cheap in the long run and pretty cool tech at the same time.

     

    Unless it is priced way out of proportion to other products I have little concern for market acceptance. But, your point is well taken.
    Acceptance could be slower than expected due to the marketplace simply not wanting to change.
    17 May 2012, 06:42 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29176) | Send Message
     
    The biggest part of the technical risk is that the PbC is not very good as drop-in replacement for existing devices that were designed to run on conventional lead-acid batteries. If users want to get the maximum benefit from the PbC, their devices need to be built to take advantage of the PbC. That fact keeps Axion from going out and courting after-market business at WalMart and auto parts stores, but simplifies sales and distribution mightily because the only people worth talking to are end users like NS who are making their own hardware, and OEM manufacturers like the automakers who want to drastically improve their products.
    17 May 2012, 08:20 AM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2224) | Send Message
     
    Axion does have a "buy it - use it" product with the PowerCubes of all sizes. They are sold as a complete system, no design necessary. Power in, power out. When the PowerCubes will gain traction in the marketplace remains to be seen.
    17 May 2012, 08:53 AM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2224) | Send Message
     
    JP> That analogy suffers somewhat because Macs are sold as a complete system. The user may have to learn the difference in use, but he doesn't have to build the machine.
    17 May 2012, 08:56 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29176) | Send Message
     
    The PowerCube's biggest strength seems to be its multi-purpose functionality that cuts across several market niches and covers a wide swath in the middle of the commercial power user's market. There will always be better and more sophisticated for the most demanding users, the A students on the bell shaped curve, but for the middle of the road users who's needs are more mundane, the PowerCube offers a great balance between price and performance.
    17 May 2012, 08:59 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (16953) | Send Message
     
    IIRC, the various OSs used by AAPL are derived from UNIX, of which Linux is a "clone".

     

    I've never heard an *IX bigot (I are one) bash AAPL's stuff.

     

    MS is fair game though.

     

    HardToLove
    17 May 2012, 09:19 AM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1483) | Send Message
     
    Nice write up Futurist.
    17 May 2012, 05:31 AM Reply Like
  • Poul Brandt
    , contributor
    Comments (269) | Send Message
     
    Nice articel.
    17 May 2012, 07:01 AM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2128) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Thanks,
    Congratulations on reaching your milestone.
    17 May 2012, 02:32 PM Reply Like
  • magounsq
    , contributor
    Comments (964) | Send Message
     
    Futurist

     

    Excellent article...well balanced!

     

    At the risk of showing my ignorance or inattentiveness, your Mega C reference helps me better understand the trolls...the vitriol and the personal attacks.
    This answers one of my queried comments about some hidden agenda flowing through several commenters.

     

    John...no matter the finish, would make an interesting book.
    17 May 2012, 04:47 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2128) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I linked the story "against all odds" because it does a good job of explaining the Mega C connection.
    There were many innocent investors that got hoodwinked in the Mega C scam. They were awarded some Axion stock in the Mega C bankruptcy but the scam artist spent most of it in useless litigation that kept claiming ownership of the Axion patents.
    17 May 2012, 06:27 PM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1333) | Send Message
     
    Futurist. As usual, nicely done...
    17 May 2012, 04:57 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2128) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Appreciate the compliment .
    17 May 2012, 06:27 PM Reply Like
  • Osterix
    , contributor
    Comments (405) | Send Message
     
    For me the Axion battery is "deja vu" all over again. In 1972-73 I was living in France when the price of oil spiked because of the 1972 war in Israel. I noticed that small and medium trucks in Europe were using Diesel engines and in the US all such trucks used gasoline engines because there were no light automotive Diesels in the US.

     

    I therefore got the bright idea of bringing light Diesels to America and revolutionizing the light and medium duty truck industry and becoming a multimillionaire in the process. I returned to the US in mid-1973 and spent the next two years trying to raise venture capitol for my light automotive Diesel project. Would it surprise you that my efforts were a total failure. In the process I learned a huge amount about the global automotive industry and the venture capital industry.

     

    In the summer of 2008 when gasoline went over four dollars a gallon, I got in touch with the US Postal Service's engineering department to find out what it was doing with hybrid powertrains for its delivery trucks. For the next year I kept touching base with the USPS project engineer who knew everything in the world about alternative technology powertrains. Thanks to him I became an expert on the subject.

     

    About 2009 I started following John Petersen's articles. About 99% of what he says reflects my experience and knowledge about introducing a new technology to an existing industry. Progress is glacially slow, if it happens at all. Today in the US, some light duty and many medium duty trucks have Diesel engines. That is after 39 years from the time people like me started to take an interest in Diesel engines for light and medium trucks for the US market.

     

    Reflecting on the future of Axion and its stock price, I have reached the following conclusion. The price of Axion stock is linked to the price of oil. The main reason there was such a slow conversion to Diesel engines in the light/medium truck industry is that adjusted for inflation the price of oil is virtually the same today as it was in 1970. GM tried to rush into Diesel engines for automobiles with the Oldsmobile Diesel which was a technological disaster.

     

    My belief right now is both good news and bad news. I don't think Axion stock will go over one dollar a share until oil is moving consistently towards 200 dollars a barrel and general agreement is that it is a permanent trend, not a temporary spike. Once this happens, there is no limit to what price Axion stock will go to.

     

    The stock market is irrational. Consider that the stock of Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc., a Mexican fast food chain, is today $406 a share with a 52 week high of $442. How much Mexican food can Americans stuff in their faces over the next three to five years to justify this high a stock price? Compare this to Axion. Regardless of the level of risk, it is a unique technology that has the potential to revolutionize important sectors of energy using industries

     

    Any sane person who feels like crap shooting is far better off buying a share of Axion at under a dollar than CMG at $406. I consider myself sane, and that is my analysis. As a matter of disclosure I must warn that many people do not consider me completely sane.

     

    Most if not all the commenters who argue with John are truly ignorant. There will never be large numbers of all electric or even hybrid electric automobiles for the reasons John keeps repeating to zero effect. Just one obvious reason is the same as why there are no Diesel powered automobiles built in America today compared to Europe. Diesels for autos make sense when gasoline is seven to eight dollars a gallon. They don't make sense when gasoline is under four dollars a gallon.

     

    The economics of an all electric auto will never make sense. The jury is still out with respect to electric hybrids. The largest selling electric hybrid, the Toyota Prius, uses an NiMH battery if my understanding is correct. Toyota has a lock on both the technology and the rare metals used in their battery. Everyone else has to use Lithium ion based batteries. I first learned about that from the USPS project engineer. He knew all about it.
    7 Jun 2012, 04:25 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29176) | Send Message
     
    I have to disagree with your idea that Axion's stock price is linked to oil. The thing I like best about Axion's current market position is that the automakers are implementing stop-start and the railroads want to get to hybrid trains in response to fuel economy and environmental regulation.

     

    I'd be much less comfortable if I believed Axion's short-term future depended, for example, on consumer choice. As long as the automakers and railroads are living with a regulatory Sword of Damocles hanging over their head I'm confident they'll do what's in Axion's best interest.

     

    Aside from that it's always fun to learn that I'm not the only one who's had the optimism beaten out of him by life. Do you ever notice how young investors talk about their latest victory while us older farts talk about the one that got away? I don't know about you but I learned a lot more from my failures than I did my successes.
    7 Jun 2012, 04:33 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9482) | Send Message
     
    Osterix: Fantastic comment. I recommend for you to paste into the Axion Power Concentrator!
    7 Jun 2012, 04:34 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2128) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Thanks for theinciteful comments. Your real life story shows how difficult it is to take a ureka moment to commercial success. Axion has been trying for seven years.
    Im abeliever simply because the PbC cansave much money for certain users. In the long run they are a winner.
    10 Jun 2012, 07:31 PM Reply Like
  • tongas
    , contributor
    Comments (40) | Send Message
     
    Futurist
    Very good article and comments.
    I think now I have been through most of Axion's blogs/articles/comments.
    Took me a while but read them more or less like a novel,and it had been very educational,beyond Axion itself.
    thanks again for the great job.
    3 Jan 2013, 01:01 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2128) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I wrote this article in May of 2012. Its been awhile since anyone has visited the article. Glad you liked it.
    Now I am going to have to re-read it and see if I still agree with the premise.
    3 Jan 2013, 04:25 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (16953) | Send Message
     
    The points you brought up were good then. Until some "events" occur, I think they still hold. The "speculation" is a bit better with such as EPower involved, the increase in the NSC battery order and more information on PC performance by Veridity, but it's still speculation.

     

    Good concerns still.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    3 Jan 2013, 05:05 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2128) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » HTL,
    Do you realize how sick we are that we still have this article flagged for new comments. BTW. Got my new shares earlier this week. Average at $.285. Tried a couple different ways but did best as an AON order.
    3 Jan 2013, 05:08 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (16953) | Send Message
     
    Futurist: Thassa good. I think the AON orders might do better at some MMS (brokerages) than others. More aggressive OTC desks will work them just like the others. Lazy OTC desks will put them in their pocket, as ETrade told me once about their desk.

     

    HardToLove
    3 Jan 2013, 05:12 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2128) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I use Scottrade. Not sure what they did. But two hours later it was filled and two days later...... $.30.
    For once I got to tell a positive story to my lovely bride. She still thinks I'm an idiot for buying Axion.

     

    " You tell John Peterson he is crazy also" she says.
    I haven't had the heart to tell her about your charts.
    3 Jan 2013, 05:16 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (16953) | Send Message
     
    Well, if she starts too apply to much pressure, show them to her, tell her you ignore them, and tell her that proves you're one of the more sane and conservative denizens! ;-)) Then show her Stilldazed's avatar! >:-O

     

    HardToLove
    3 Jan 2013, 05:19 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2128) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Or Metros. Either way we are very sick individuals.

     

    BTW, Used your charts to make a buying decision.
    3 Jan 2013, 05:22 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (16953) | Send Message
     
    Futurist; Thanks. I was hoping that eventually some real concrete deceisions might result. Now we need to see if they mislead or not.

     

    <*case of nerves begins to develop*> ;-))

     

    HardToLove
    3 Jan 2013, 05:25 PM Reply Like
  • jayenright
    , contributor
    Comments (10) | Send Message
     
    Believe it or not, I also still had this article flagged ... still lurking ...
    3 Jan 2013, 05:53 PM Reply Like
  • KentG
    , contributor
    Comments (367) | Send Message
     
    Still flagged here as well. You guys make me laugh.

     

    Kent
    3 Jan 2013, 06:09 PM Reply Like
  • Stilldazed
    , contributor
    Comments (2046) | Send Message
     
    I heard that HTL. ;-)
    3 Jan 2013, 05:21 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (16953) | Send Message
     
    Then your TFH must be defective - it's supposed to protect against unwanted incoming as well as outbound leakage! :-))

     

    HardToLove
    3 Jan 2013, 05:26 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8492) | Send Message
     
    Stilldazed. I think HTL has failed to recognize the historic leak at the top of your hat given the chosen form. No matter how hard you try there is always a small hole at the top where things can get in or out. It's the darndest thing.

     

    http://bit.ly/S7swzh
    3 Jan 2013, 05:36 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (16953) | Send Message
     
    Iindelco: LoL! It's been a few years since I saw such!

     

    HardToLove
    3 Jan 2013, 06:04 PM Reply Like
  • Stilldazed
    , contributor
    Comments (2046) | Send Message
     
    HTL,
    This hat is the experimental model that you discontinued. Any chance of a refund? Oh, never mind it was a freebie try out anyway, but it still says class.
    3 Jan 2013, 06:32 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2128) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » OMG,
    we are a society of sick investors. I will repeat.
    I wrote this in May 2012. Sane people would have deleted this by now.

     

    But mind you this. Of all of Axionista land, HTL is definitely the proudest wearer of a tin foil hat. :-)
    3 Jan 2013, 07:35 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8492) | Send Message
     
    Futurist, "Imitation is the highest form of flattery".
    3 Jan 2013, 07:54 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2128) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Yes it is IIndelco, indeed it is.
    I hope all the lurkers in this deep pit of obscure minutia have
    A VERY HAPPY NEW YEAR.
    3 Jan 2013, 08:00 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3308) | Send Message
     
    2013 will really have to outdo itself to be less gratifying than 2012... ;)
    3 Jan 2013, 08:11 PM Reply Like
  • CO3
    , contributor
    Comments (244) | Send Message
     
    20 new comments .... (now 21)
    Must be something hot going on ......
    New Risks being identified & discussed?
    Come here to escape a herd of trolls?
    Nope ....
    New hangout for the TFH crew!
    Here's my personal favorite:
    http://bit.ly/132FWP2
    4 Jan 2013, 12:20 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29176) | Send Message
     
    I'm wondering if we shouldn't hold a TFH design competition where each of us makes an original TFH, submits a photo of the creator and his hat to a willing host and we use a polling site to pick the winners.
    4 Jan 2013, 12:35 AM Reply Like
  • CO3
    , contributor
    Comments (244) | Send Message
     
    Oh Goodie,
    A father-daughter project!
    (my youngest is taking fashion design this semester & loving it)
    4 Jan 2013, 12:49 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29176) | Send Message
     
    We could even start a TFH Concentrator, although we would have to worry about NSA infiltrators.
    4 Jan 2013, 12:53 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (16953) | Send Message
     
    "... have to worry about NSA infiltrators"

     

    Worse than that, some of their cohorts at such as the CIA would likely to use the forum and some nefarious means to start killing us off, from "natural causes", as we began to expose their activities, giving a whole new meaning to "going viral".

     

    =>8-O

     

    HardToLove
    4 Jan 2013, 08:21 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29176) | Send Message
     
    They'd only kill off those of us, if any, that designed truly efficacious TFHs.

     

    Seriously, why would they ever want to retaliate against the deluded?
    4 Jan 2013, 08:35 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (16953) | Send Message
     
    "Seriously, why would they ever want to retaliate against the deluded?"

     

    They don't like competition?

     

    HardToLove
    4 Jan 2013, 08:36 AM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1483) | Send Message
     
    "I'm wondering if we shouldn't hold a TFH design competition where each of us makes an original TFH, submits a photo of the creator and his hat to a willing host and we use a polling site to pick the winners."

     

    I've officially entered the TFH Sweepstakes Competition.
    4 Jan 2013, 10:24 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8492) | Send Message
     
    Ahhh Metro, If I was only younger, the opposite sex and nuts. It becomes you!

     

    Well one out of three. Pretty close. lol
    4 Jan 2013, 11:12 AM Reply Like
  • magounsq
    , contributor
    Comments (964) | Send Message
     
    Futurist

     

    Coincidentally, I "borrowed" from this discussion blog to satisfy answers from a friend's question yesterday about AXPW/JP from YAHOO board postings.
    It was good to have a ready made source.
    Coincidentally, received this from him this am...

     

    "Joe
    Spoke too soon ...

     

    http://yhoo.it/VzKWrm"

     

    -Bill"

     

    I told him ask me any time if he always brings this luck!
    4 Jan 2013, 11:53 AM Reply Like
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