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Ben Gee
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I was born in China in 1942, came to Canada in 1956. I earned a B Sc in physics, B Ed in Mathematics, and M A in Developmental Economics. I taught 4 years in public school and 23 years in a junior college. I retired in 2003.
  • I Am A Chinese Bull, Am I Full Of Bull? 8 comments
    Jul 18, 2012 3:33 PM

    The Chinese economic growth has slow down to 7.6% in Q2 2012. Most economists predicted that China's growth for 2012 will be 7.8-8.4% as compared to 9.1% for 2011. I agree with them. I suppose these are China bulls' predictions.

    Chinese bears think China is at the verge of collapse and all data came out of China are lies. Some of them think China is in the middle of a recession or worse, depression.

    Chinese bears quoted the reduction of Chinese RE prices and world commodity prices as evidence of Chinese collapse. I think Chinese bears are wrong. Chinese RE price reduction was engineered by Chinese authorities to prevent the Chinese RE market from over heating. World commodity prices collapse was the result of over production.

    Chinese bears think that GDP figures released by Chinese authorities are not accurate, they think electricity consumption figures are more accurate about the state of the Chinese economy. Do they realize that the electricity consumption figures are also figures released by Chinese authorities? If Chinese authorities lie about one, why do they not lie about the other? Do Chinese bears realize that if electricity consumption is a good measurement of economic activities, then, the Chinese economy would be much closer to the size of the US economy instead of less than 50% of the US economy? Or the Chinese economy would be more than 2 times the Japanese economy because China use more than 2 times the amount of electricity than Japan.

    There are Chinese data we can rely on. These are Chinese foreign trade figures and Chinese foreign investment figures. These figures can be traced from outside China. Chinese foreign investments are growing rapidly and Chinese exports are growing by over 11% even when export to Europe is collapsing. Chinese imports were less than 7%, that is because commodity prices are lower, not because of volume reduction.

    If foreign trade figures are correlated to economic activities, then, the rate of Chinese growth of 7.6% is believable.

    I believe the Chinese economy will continue to grow or expand at perhaps a lower and lower rate. But the Chinese economy will continue to expand for at least 20-25 years. I am a Chinese bull.

    Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

    Themes: economy
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Comments (8)
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  • HOBO POTHEAD
    , contributor
    Comments (47) | Send Message
     
    Just for the record I'm a total China Bull and am "betting the ranch" on China.

     

    I note that the actual wages of the Chinese are steadily climbing and that increasing numbers of ordinary Chinese have surplus funds. I'm GUESSING that the Chinese government will entice and/or force the ordinary Chinese to buy corporate equities to provide capital for Chinese corporations. I'd like to know what you think about this GUESS of mine if you have time.

     

    Also, I have heard that in China there are online brokerages like Scottrade here in the states. Do you think the increasingly wealthy Chine will use these online brokerages to buy significant amounts of stock?

     

    Frankly, I think China is going steadily up via production of actual useful stuff while the USA economy is sinking in more and more paper swindles. I think this is the Century of China.

     

    I think that in due course we will see an absolute explosion in the Shanghai stock market.

     

    Warm regards
    Hobo
    18 Jul 2012, 06:34 PM Reply Like
  • Ben Gee
    , contributor
    Comments (11313) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Not unlike Westerners, Chinese people has very little faith in their own stock market. There are a few rotten apples got into the Chinese stock market. You know how the story goes.
    I hope in time, authorities will come around and set rules that will prevent schemers entering a very important sector of an economy.
    You are right, in due time, Chinese stock market will reflect its economy. When? Maybe 10 years.
    20 Jul 2012, 08:13 AM Reply Like
  • Sam Liu
    , contributor
    Comments (3864) | Send Message
     
    Wages in cn has not been outpacing inflation!
    21 Jul 2012, 09:43 AM Reply Like
  • Ben Gee
    , contributor
    Comments (11313) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Sam, take your head out of the sand. You are seeing a few rotten trees, you missed the forest.
    18 Dec 2012, 04:19 PM Reply Like
  • Sam Liu
    , contributor
    Comments (3864) | Send Message
     
    Ben:

     

    Where do you live?

     

    Where have I been living over 75% of the time?
    18 Dec 2012, 07:37 PM Reply Like
  • fussyGroup
    , contributor
    Comments (6) | Send Message
     
    the reports of ghost towns make me wonder, who thinks the dozens of urban areas will be occupied, absorbed, in contrast to who thinks the Chinese planners will simply tear them down to recycle the materials into exports? Where I live, in Southern California, USA, more than 50% of my neighbors are young families from China and I suspect that many will invest in those opportunities to own and either occupy or rent out any housing they can invest in back in China.
    7 Jul 2013, 02:41 AM Reply Like
  • Sam Liu
    , contributor
    Comments (3864) | Send Message
     
    What in Shanghai occurred the young urban professionals moved to the suburbs and filling up Pudong, while principally the older migrant professionals bought the older units and the suburbs and Pudong.

     

    When there is convenient transportation flows into these ghost towns, they'll start booming!
    7 Jul 2013, 08:40 AM Reply Like
  • Shaduc
    , contributor
    Comments (1623) | Send Message
     
    Forget about being a bull-Cn. Elite grads are pragmatic: http://on.wsj.com/1tp88rt
    China’s market for factory jobs has remained strong even as the economy starts to show slower growth. But college graduates are having more trouble finding work as universities continue to crank out armies of graduates. The government expects a record 7.27 million college graduates in 2014, the State Council, or the cabinet, said last week. It has rolled out a series of measures, including loans and tax breaks, to encourage graduates to start their own business. (in Chinese)

     

    Asked about that barrier to other future noodle shop operators, the vice minister said: “Entrepreneurs can go to other cities; hukou is not a problem there.”
    22 May 2014, 12:24 PM Reply Like
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