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Today's Technical Outlook 11/14/2012

Market Summary

David Chojnacki S1F Market Technician

The indices made a valiant attempt to hold on to gains during the morning hours , but eventually technical resistance levels won out and pushed the averages to the down side. The selling was more fluid during the final hours and the indices closed with moderate losses in the session. At the close, the DJIA and S&P dropped 0.4%, and the Nasdaq100 slipped 0.8%. Breadth was negative, 2 to 1, on a pick-up in volume. RSI's fell close to the 30 level, indicating that we might be reaching near term over-sold levels. ROC(10's) remained negative and continued further to the downside. The S&P traded within a technical range as did the other major averages. The S&P remains below the 200D-SMA(1381), but found support at its 50% retracement level of 1371. We expect that near term there is fairly good support in the 1371-75 area for the S&P, but that eventually the major indices will follow the lead of the Nasdaq100 to additional correction. The S&P has upside resistance at 1384 and 1393. Bias, short term, remains to the downside as long as we stay below 1425. We continue to watch the Nasdaq100 as it is the leader to the downside and yesterday it closed below its 10% correction level. It traded as low as 2554 in the session, before finding some support and closing a few points above. The 2550 level and 2525 should provide some near term support. Near term technicals continue to suggest that we may get a brief bounce at these levels. Upside resistance is now at 2575 and 2588. We get PPI numbers today and FOMC minutes. These may have some impact on today's action. We also have the President having a press conference today, scheduled for 1:30pm, which may also be a Market mover. The VIX closed at 16.65, continuing to suggest that there is little fear in the Market. This does not reflect the action of the last several weeks. Futures this morning are higher versus fair value.

Major Economic Reports Today

Retail Sales-8:30am PPI-8:30am Business Inv.-10:00am FOMC Minutes-2:00pm

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