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Today's Technical Outlook 12/5/2012

Market Summary

David Chojnacki S1F Market Technician

After exhibiting a little strength in the early going, the major averages slowly drifted to the downside, leaving prices in the red at final bell. With no major news to move the Markets, they once again traded in a narrow range for most of the session. At the close, the DJIA dropped 13.8 points, the S&P gave up 2.4 points, and the Nasdaq100 slipping 3.9 points. Breadth was just slightly negative, on average volume. RSI's were little changed and ROC(10's) remained positive, but declined in the session. MACD's continue above signal for all three major indices. The indices continue to trade near key technical levels and appear to be content with consolidating in the current range. We are in a congestion area, so that does not come as a surprise. The DJIA briefly traded above its 200D-SMA (12996), but by the close had retreated below. The Nasdaq100 closed just below its 200D-SMA(2670), while the S&P could not hold above its one year trend-line of 1411. The S&P did manage to continue above its 200D-SMA(1385). We expect the S&P to find resistance at 1411 and at the 1420-25 area. The index will find support at 1400 and 1396, near term. The S&P may consolidate in a wide area between 1375 and 1425 until a clearer direction on fiscal policy is formulated. The Nasdaq100 which closed just below its 200D-SMA(2670), will now find that level to provide resistance along with 2675 and 2700. Support sets up at 2661 and 2650. The VIX has risen for three straight sessions, moving above its 20 and 50D-SMA's, and seeing its MACD cross above signal. It closed yesterday at 17.12. We receive a slew of economic reports this morning which may have some impact on the Market. We have Europe up in early trading and that is helping to keep our Futures to the upside before the open. Focus on Washington for some type of fiscal resolution still remains the main concern for now.

Major Economic Reports Today

ADP Employment Change-8:15am Prod/Unit Labor Costs-8:30am Factory Orders-10:00am ISM Services-10:00am Crude Inv.-10:30am



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