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Today's Technical Outlook -12/13/2012

Market Summary

David Chojnacki S1F Market Technician

After opening a few points higher, the indices traded nearly flat leading into the FOMC decision at 12:30pm. The Nasdaq100 was slightly weaker going negative into the decision. Encouraged that the Fed will continue easing, buyers stepped in, sending the averages to their highs of the day. During the PM hours, the indices began to run into formidable resistance areas. The S&P has on several occasions been unable to get through the 1433-35 levels and the Nasdaq100 had been driven back from 2700 several times. Once again the indices ran into a wall and fell going into the close. At the close, the DJIA dropped 2.9 points, the S&P managed to add 0.64 of a point, and the Nasdaq100 lost 7.5 points. Breadth was slightly negative on average volume. After breaking through a range the prior session, that the averages traded in for nearly 12 sessions, the indices looked like they were poised to make a run toward the September highs. The DJIA and S&P formed Doji's in the session. The Nasdaq100 closed with its 50D-SMA(2673) nearly crossing below its 200D-SMA(2672). Typically known as the 'death cross'. Though near term technicals are fairly strong for the Nasdaq100, we find the 'death cross' setting up because the index is at the same levels it was back in March. The index closed just a point above this intersection after meeting some headwinds earlier in the session. 2700 will provide formidable resistance for the Nasdaq100, as will the 50% retracement level of 2694. It will find near term support at 2664 and 2650. More important support remains at 2625. We find the 1433-35 area and 1450 level, providing near term resistance for the S&P. There is fairly good support in the 1420-1425 area and at 1410. The VIX remains mild at 15.95. Key numbers today(see above) which may move the Market. Indices across the pond are lower this morning. Futures are slightly to the downside versus fair value.

Major Economic Reports Today

Initial/Continuing Claims-8:30am Retail Sales-8:30am PPI-8:30am Business Inv.-10:00am

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