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Street One Financial LLC (S1F or Street One) is an independent entity affiliated with GWM Group Inc., a full service registered broker dealer and a member of FINRA/SIPC. Street One specializes in educating, evaluating and trading ETFs, equities and options. Our firm assists portfolio managers in... More
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  • Today's Technical Outlook - 2/25/2013 0 comments
    Feb 25, 2013 7:52 AM

    Market Summary

    David Chojnacki S1F Market Technician

    After two days of nearly a 2% pullback, the Market started to the upside on Friday and held that strength into the close. The buying was fairly steady during the session and the major averages closed near their highs of the day. The indices erased 50% of the losses in the prior two sessions. At the close on Friday, the DJIA was up 0.86%, the S&P adding 0.88%, and the Nasdaq100 gaining 0.95%. Breadth was decidedly positive, 3 to 1, on average volume. For the week, the DJIA and S&P were little changed, down just 0.1% and 0.2%, respectively. The Nasdaq100 was a little weaker, giving up 0.9% on the week. The Market was due for some consolidation after the gains made since Jan 1. The S&P meets resistance in the 1525 to 1540 area, and it was at 1530 during the week when the S&P reversed and moved down 2%. The S&P found support just above 1494, which was a near term level of support. A drop below 1494 and we can test the 1460-1475 levels. 1460 and 1540 are the boundaries of a 1 year up-trending channel. The Nasdaq100 developed a complex head and shoulders back in the Aug.'12 to Oct.'12 timeframe, with the neckline near 2718-2725. This level is key to the future short term direction of the index. It has been trading near this level since Jan. 1. MACD's continue below signal for all 3 major indices.

    Trading Trends

    David Chojnacki S1F Market Technician

    March will mark the 4 year anniversary of an up-trending market, since the reversal from the 50%+ loss of the financial crisis in 2007 to 2009. It has taken the DJIA and S&P 4 years to get close to challenging the 2007 levels. The Nasdaq100 has held above its 2007 high since Oct. 2011. Expect some challenging resistance before the indices can move to new highs. Short term we expect resistance just ahead of current levels and it may take some time before we challenge old highs. Near term look for 1530 in the S&P and 2725 in the Nasdaq100 to provide a pivot point for bias. 2 weeks of heavy economic data, Market moving news from Europe, and Washington Crisis(Sequester), Bernanke, should make for some interesting weeks. Prophylactics are a must.

    MAJOR INDICESShort term support and resistance level
    DJIA

    close 14000

    SP500

    close 1515

    N100

    close 2737

    13953140001512152527342750
    13930141251511153027302751
    13800141981500154027252762
    13725142501494155027212775
    13700143001488156227182788
    13656143751475157627142800
    13610145001462158827122812
    13600 1460160027092825
      1450 2700 

    Major Economic Reports Today

    No reports scheduled

    DISCLAIMER LANGUAGE -ALL PRICES NOTED IN THIS PUBLICATION ARE AS OF THE CLOSE ON TRADING PRIOR TO

    TODAY'S DATE, UNLESS OTHERWISE INDICATED

    This publication is neither an offer to sell nor a solicitation to buy any securities mentioned herein. The information contained herein is based on data obtained from recognized sources that are believed to be reliable. Street One Financial LLC (S1F) have not independently verified the facts, assumptions and estimates contained in this publication.

    Accordingly, no representation or warranty, expressed or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, completeness or correctness of the information and opinions contained in this publication. The information contained in this publication is not and does not purport to be a complete analysis of every material fact respecting any company, industry, ETF or other security You should consider the investment objectives, risks, and charges and expenses of the Fund carefully before investing. The performance data quoted represents past performance. Past performance does not guarantee future results. The Fund's investment return and principal value will fluctuate. Upon redemption, shares may be worth more or less than their original cost. The Fund's current performance may be lower or higher than the performance data quoted. Go to toll free telephone number or Web site to obtain performance current to the most recent month-end. The average annualized total returns reflect the deduction of the Fund's maximum sales load. (When also showing non-standardized performance, if the sales load is not reflected, the disclosure must state that performance does not reflect the deduction of loads or fees and, if reflected, would have reduced performance.)

    You should read the prospectus carefully before investing. You should consider the investment objectives, risks, and charges and expenses of the Fund carefully before investing. Additional information concerning this publication may be available on request, if available.

    Many of the securities mentioned in this publication involve a higher degree of risk and more volatility than the securities of more established securities. For these and other reasons, the investments discussed in this publication may be unsuitable for investors depending on their specific investment objectives and financial position. Each investor should complete his or her own additional investigation and assessment prior to making investments in any securities. You should consider the investment objectives, risks, and charges and expenses of the Fund carefully before investing Transactions in securities mentioned herein may be affected only in those states where such securities are qualified for sale.

    Street One Technical Analysis LLC is an independently owned Company from Street One Financial LLC (S1F). S1F is an independent Company specializing in ETF's, equities, and options utilizing the Broker/Dealer services and licenses of GWM Group Inc., a fully registered Broker Dealer and member of SIPC/FINRA. S1F specializes in agency ETF/ETP, equities, and options trade execution. On the ETF/ETP end, S1F may work with the ETF issuers to understand their products more thoroughly and how they can complement an investor's portfolio.

    Data sources include ETF Database, ETFTrends.com, IndexUniverse.com, Google Finance, and Bloomberg data and at times other data sources are utilized. Leveraged, Inverse & Leveraged Inverse Conclusions and Risks 1) Leveraged, Inverse, and Leveraged Inverse (L&LI) ETFs generally capture a high percentage of their expected daily returns, particularly on a net asset value basis. 2) L&LI ETFs are not appropriate for all investors. However, we believe they can be appropriate tools for some investors looking to make short-term tactical trades if they perceive a high likelihood of a strong market move occurring in a relatively short time period. In strong trending markets, being on the right side of the "trade" with L or LI ETFs can lead to very strong returns. 3) Investors should not expect these ETFs to deliver total returns linked to their benchmarks over any period other than daily. The effects of compounding and the daily re-leveraging or de-leveraging that occurs with L&LI

    ETFs can lead to unexpected results over the long term. As a result, we believe longer-term investors should consider regularly rebalancing positions. 4) Trendless markets, particularly those with a high level of volatility, can lead to substantial relative underperformance of L&LI ETFs. 2) Leveraged and Leveraged Inverse (L&LI) ETFs typically utilize futures and equity swap agreements. The use of these derivative instruments increases risk and enhances the possibility of tracking error.

    Relative to traditional ETFs, leveraged, inverse and leveraged inverse ETFs typically have higher costs and lower tax efficiency. 3) The effects of compounding can lead to significant deviations from traditional benchmarks over longer time periods. For example, if $100,000 is invested in an index that increases in value by 10% on day one and then decreases in valueby 10% on day two, the investment will be worth $110,000 at the end of day one and $99,000 after day two. However, the value of a security that doubles the daily performance of the index would be worth $120,000 on day one and $96,000 after day two. Thus, the index is down 1% after two days, a doubling of which would be down 2%. However, the security attempting to double the return of the index is down 4%. Investors should consider carefully the potential impact over longer periods. MLP and MLP ETF Risks Individual MLPs are publicly traded partnerships that have unique risks related to their structure. These include, but are not limited to, their reliance on the capitalmarkets to fund growth, adverse ruling on the current tax treatment of distributions (typically mostly tax deferred), and commodity volume risk.

    For tax purposes, MLP ETFs are taxed as C corporations and will be obligated to pay federal and state corporate income taxes on their taxable income, unlike traditional ETFs, which are structured as registered investment companies. These ETFs are likely to exhibit tracking error relative to their index as a result of accounting for deferred tax assets or liabilities (see funds' prospectuses). The potential tax benefits from investing in MLPs depend on their being treated as partnerships for federal income tax purposes and, if the MLP is deemed to be a corporation, then its income would be subject to federal taxation at the entity level, reducing the amount of cash available for distribution to the fund which could result in a reduction of the fund's value. MLP funds accrue deferred income taxes for future tax liabilities associated with the portion of MLP distributions considered to be a tax-deferred return of capital and for any net operating gains as well as capital appreciation of its investments; this deferred tax liability is reflected in the daily NAV; and, as a result, the MLP fund's after-tax performance could differ significantly from the underlying assets even if the pre-tax performance is closely tracked. Commodity ETF Risks Commodity ETFs may be subject to greater volatility than traditionalETFs and can be affected by increased volatility of commodities prices or indexes as well as changes in supply-and-demand relationships, interest rates, monetary and other governmental policies, or factors affecting a particular sector or commodity. Currency ETF Risks Investments in currency involve additional special risks, such as credit risk and interest rate fluctuations. ETFs mentioned at times may have material exposure to small cap and/or international securities that may have higher levels of risk and volatility than other ETFs.

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