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Today's Technical Outlook -4/29/2013

Market Summary

David Chojnacki S1F Market Technician

After opening to the upside, the indices quickly reversed direction and began a slow move to the downside. In the PM hours the indices began to move to the upside regaining some of the morning's loss. By the close, the major averages were hardly changed and mixed on the session. At the close on Friday, the DJIA added 11.7 points, the S&P gave up 2.9 points, and the Nasdaq100 lost 8.1 points. Breadth was negative, 1.4 to 1, on average volume. For the week, the DJIA gained 1.1%, the S&P added 1.7%, and the Nasdaq100, the big gainer, moving up 2.1%. RSI's remain in the mid 50's, and ROC(10's)are positive and advanced in the last session. The indices began the week, with 2 strong moves to the upside and then the advance slowed as the averages neared their recent highs. On Friday, MACD's crossed above signal for both the S&P and Nasdaq100. Technicals remain strong and the rally since November 2012 continues. Fundamentals and earnings revenues have shown some weakness lately, but this has not manifested itself in technicals, except for some occasional near term weakness. Last week's pull-back from testing the highs on Thursday may be setting a double top or perhaps just a temporary consolidation. The momentum has slowed in the last two weeks, but the VIX is not displaying any fear.

MAJOR INDICES Short term support and resistance level

DJIA

close 14712

SP500

close 1582

N100

close 2840

14700

14800

1576

1588

2837

2850

14684

14865

1568

1593

2825

2864

14660

14875

1556

1597

2812

2875

14600

14887

1550

1600

2800

2878

14525

14900

1540

1612

2791

2888

14500

15000

1525

1625

2788

2900

14423

15125

1512

1637

2775

2912

14400

 

1500

1650

2750

2925

14375

 

1496

     
Click to enlarge

Major Economic Reports Today

Personal Income/Spending-8:30am PCE Prices-8:30am Pending Home Sales-10:00am

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Trading Trends

David Chojnacki S1F Market Technician

The bias to the long term upside continues in the Market as technicals remain strong. The major indices were testing their highs last week before a brief pullback. Last weeks early strength improved short term technicals as MACD's for the S&P and Nasdaq100 turned above signal. We also saw the Nasdaq100 gain parity with the S&P and DJIA. The major indices remain above key short term moving averages. Near term we will be watching if the indices can test and penetrate the recent highs and move out to new levels. In the last two years, the spring pullback began the first week of May. A big week for economic reports, with an FOMC meeting and Employment numbers. Earnings continue. Futures are pointing up this morning, as overseas Markets were positive overnight.