Please Note: Blog posts are not selected, edited or screened by Seeking Alpha editors.

Today's Technical Outlook - 4/28/2014

Market Summary

David Chojnacki, Market Technician

Once again, geopolitical concerns in Ukraine trumped any good news coming from earnings reports. The Market opened to the downside on Friday and continued the weakness throughout the session. A small bounce in the session left the averages off their lows, but with modest losses on the day. At the close on Friday, the DJIA and S&P lost 0.8%, and the Nasdaq100 gave up 1.6%. Breadth was negative, 2 to 1, on above average volume. RSI's dipped in the session, with the Nasdaq100 moving back in the 40's. ROC(10's) were mixed in the session, but remained in positive territory. For the week, the major averages were little changed with the DJIA losing 47 points, the S&P and Nasdaq100 giving up just one point. The week started to the upside, but as tensions grew in Ukraine the major averages sold off. The 10 yr. ended the week at 2.67%, as money from Russian bonds flowed into safer havens. The VIX moved up 5.5% to 14.06, but continues to remain in a relatively tame area.

Trading Trends

 

MAJOR INDICES Short term support and resistance level

DJIA

close 16361

SP500

close 1863

N100

close 3533

16301

16400

1862

1875

3525

3537

16200

16500

1861

1888

3512

3550

16050

16576

1858

1890

3500

3553

16000

16631

1852

1897

3495

3562

15972

16700

1850

1900

3488

3575

15900

 

1840

1912

3475

3586

15800

 

1837

1925

3462

3588

   

1825

1937

3450

3600

   

1815

 

3437

3612

Click to enlarge

DISCLAIMER LANGUAGE -ALL PRICES NOTED IN THIS PUBLICATION ARE AS OF THE CLOSE ON TRADING PRIOR TO

TODAY'S DATE, UNLESS OTHERWISE INDICATED

This publication is neither an offer to sell nor a solicitation to buy any securities mentioned herein. The information contained herein is based on data obtained from recognized sources that are believed to be reliable. Street One Financial LLC (S1F) have not independently verified the facts, assumptions and estimates contained in this publication.

Accordingly, no representation or warranty, expressed or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, completeness or correctness of the information and opinions contained in this publication. The information contained in this publication is not and does not purport to be a complete analysis of every material fact respecting any company, industry, ETF or other security You should consider the investment objectives, risks, and charges and expenses of the Fund carefully before investing. The performance data quoted represents past performance. Past performance does not guarantee future results. The Fund's investment return and principal value will fluctuate. Upon redemption, shares may be worth more or less than their original cost. The Fund's current performance may be lower or higher than the performance data quoted. Go to toll free telephone number or Web site to obtain performance current to the most recent month-end. The average annualized total returns reflect the deduction of the Fund's maximum sales load. (When also showing non-standardized performance, if the sales load is not reflected, the disclosure must state that performance does not reflect the deduction of loads or fees and, if reflected, would have reduced performance.)

You should read the prospectus carefully before investing. You should consider the investment objectives, risks, and charges and expenses of the Fund carefully before investing. Many of the securities mentioned in this publication involve a higher degree of risk and more volatility than the securities of more established securities. For these and other reasons, the investments discussed in this publication may be unsuitable for investors depending on their specific investment objectives and financial position. Each investor should complete his or her own additional investigation and assessment prior to making investments in any securities. You should consider the investment objectives, risks, and charges and expenses of the Fund carefully before investing Transactions in securities mentioned herein may be affected only in those states where such securities are qualified for sale.

Street One Technical Analysis LLC is an independently owned Company from Street One Financial LLC (S1F). S1F is an independent Company specializing in ETF's, equities, and options utilizing the Broker/Dealer services and licenses of Precision Securities, LLC, a fully registered Broker Dealer and member of SIPC/FINRA. S1F specializes in agency ETF/ETP, equities, and options trade execution. On the ETF/ETP end, S1F may work with the ETF issuers to understand their products more thoroughly and how they can complement an investor's portfolio.

Data sources include ETF Database, ETFTrends.com, IndexUniverse.com, Google Finance, and Bloomberg data and at times other data sources are utilized. Leveraged, Inverse & Leveraged Inverse Conclusions and Risks 1) Leveraged, Inverse, and Leveraged Inverse (L&LI) ETFs generally capture a high percentage of their expected daily returns, particularly on a net asset value basis. 2) L&LI ETFs are not appropriate for all investors. However, we believe they can be appropriate tools for some investors looking to make short-term tactical trades if they perceive a high likelihood of a strong market move occurring in a relatively short time period. In strong trending markets, being on the right side of the "trade" with L or LI ETFs can lead to very strong returns. 3) Investors should not expect these ETFs to deliver total returns linked to their benchmarks over any period other than daily. The effects of compounding and the daily re-leveraging or de-leveraging that occurs with L&LI

ETFs can lead to unexpected results over the long term. As a result, we believe longer-term investors should consider regularly rebalancing positions. 4) Trendless markets, particularly those with a high level of volatility, can lead to substantial relative underperformance of L&LI ETFs. 2) Leveraged and Leveraged Inverse (L&LI) ETFs typically utilize futures and equity swap agreements. The use of these derivative instruments increases risk and enhances the possibility of tracking error.

Relative to traditional ETFs, leveraged, inverse and leveraged inverse ETFs typically have higher costs and lower tax efficiency. 3) The effects of compounding can lead to significant deviations from traditional benchmarks over longer time periods. For example, if $100,000 is invested in an index that increases in value by 10% on day one and then decreases in value by 10% on day two, the investment will be worth $110,000 at the end of day one and $99,000 after day two. However, the value of a security that doubles the daily performance of the index would be worth $120,000 on day one and $96,000 after day two. Thus, the index is down 1% after two days, a doubling of which would be down 2%. However, the security attempting to double the return of the index is down 4%. Investors should consider carefully the potential impact over longer periods. MLP and MLP ETF Risks Individual MLPs are publicly traded partnerships that have unique risks related to their structure. These include, but are not limited to, their reliance on the capital markets to fund growth, adverse ruling on the current tax treatment of distributions (typically mostly tax deferred), and commodity volume risk.

For tax purposes, MLP ETFs are taxed as C corporations and will be obligated to pay federal and state corporate income taxes on their taxable income, unlike traditional ETFs, which are structured as registered investment companies. These ETFs are likely to exhibit tracking error relative to their index as a result of accounting for deferred tax assets or liabilities (see funds' prospectuses). The potential tax benefits from investing in MLPs depend on their being treated as partnerships for federal income tax purposes and, if the MLP is deemed to be a corporation, then its income would be subject to federal taxation at the entity level, reducing the amount of cash available for distribution to the fund which could result in a reduction of the fund's value. MLP funds accrue deferred income taxes for future tax liabilities associated with the portion of MLP distributions considered to be a tax-deferred return of capital and for any net operating gains as well as capital appreciation of its investments; this deferred tax liability is reflected in the daily NAV; and, as a result, the MLP fund's after-tax performance could differ significantly from the underlying assets even if the pre-tax performance is closely tracked. Commodity ETF Risks Commodity ETFs may be subject to greater volatility than traditional ETFs and can be affected by increased volatility of commodities prices or indexes as well as changes in supply-and-demand relationships, interest rates, monetary and other governmental policies, or factors affecting a particular sector or commodity. Currency ETF Risks Investments in currency involve additional special risks, such as credit risk and interest rate fluctuations. ETFs mentioned at times may have material exposure to small cap and/or international securities that may have higher levels of risk and volatility than other ETFs.

Registered Representative of and Securities Products offered through Precision Securities, LLC Member FINRA SIPC. Street One Financial LLC (S1F) and Precision Securities LLC are not affiliated entities.

Major Economic Reports Today

Pending Home Sales-10:00am

Long term trend continues with an upside bias as the averages were fairly flat in last week's action. There is some indication of perhaps 'topping' at these levels, but technicals have not confirmed that at this time. Short term technicals held steady last week and the bias remains to the upside. The Nasdaq100 is the only index with short term showing any weakness. It remains below its 1 year trend-line of 3625 and below 20 and 50D-SMA's. Near term, the Nasdaq100 has a downward bias below 3586. The S&P near term bias is positive above 1852. Ukraine remains a concern and earnings continue this week. The Nikkei was down over-night and Europe is higher in early trade. Futures are slightly higher this morning versus fair value as M&A deals are adding a spark to the markets.