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Today's Technical Outlook-6/14/2012

Market Summary

David Chojnacki S1F Market Technician

After some early weakness, the Market tried to recover and get into positive territory. By mid-afternoon the indices began to slide and closed near their lows of the day. At the close, the DJIA lost 0.6%, while the S&P and the Nasdaq100 gave up 0.7%. Breadth was negative, 2 to 1, on below average volume. RSI's declined slightly to the mid and upper 40's, with ROC(10's) remaining positive, but declining. A bit of a slippage in near term strength and with the S&P below 1319, we see bias to the downside. MACD's continued above signal indicating that short term technicals remain improved. The indices continue to bounce around several technical indicators, and this is just a confirmation of the choppiness seen in the last few sessions. The VIX reflects this volatility, closing up 9.8% to 24.27 and moving toward the top of its recent range. The S&P moved below the 1319 to 1325 area, and we see a downside bias below this level. If we remain below this area, there is a good chance that we retest the 200D-SMA at 1290. Look for near term support at 1312 and 1300. The 1319 to 1325 area will once again provide upside resistance. The Nasdaq100 closed just above its 20D-SMA(2526) and remained above its 150D-SMA(2512). Look for these levels to provide near term support. On the upside, the .38 Fibonacci retracement level of 2542, will provide resistance, along with 2550. The DJIA remained below its 150D-SMA(12601), and above its 20D-SMA(12427). Look for the 20D to provide support and the 150D to provide resistance. Today's claims report and CPI should set the stage for the open. If we follow this week's up /down script, today will be an up day. Futures early this AM are slightly above fair value.

Major Economic Reports Today

Initial/Continuing Claims-8:30am CPI-8:30am Current Acct. Balance-8:30am

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