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Today's Technical Outlook-6/29/2012

Market Summary

David Chojnacki S1F Market Technician

Troubled by headlines and indecision on how to react to the SCOTUS ruling, the Market was down early. The major indices were down more than 1%, when a late day rally brought the DJIA and S&P to close nearly flat on the session. The Nasdaq100 was a little weaker, on heavier volume, and closed down 1.1%. At the close, the DJIA and the S&P were off just 0.2%. Breadth was positive 1.3 to 1, on below average volume. RSI's remained at 50 for the DJIA and S&P, but fell to 46 for the Nasdaq100. ROC(10's) turned negative and declined for all three major averages. Trading remains technical and the late day rally may have been short covering, since there was no real volume involved. The DJIA remained below its 150D-SMA(12658), but held its 20D-SMA(12528). Look for these levels to provide near term resistance and support. The S&P was in a technical range trade during the session and closed right at its 150D-SMA(1329). 1319 and 1312 will once again provide near term support, with 1335 and 1363 providing resistance. The weakness in the Nasdaq100 yesterday is the biggest concern. It dropped below its Fibonacci 38% retracement level(2541) and closed just 3 points above its 150D-SMA(2533). It did this on a spike in volume from the previous session. As we have noted in the past, the Nasdaq100 has been the Market leader since the 2009 reversal. When we see adverse behavior to the other indices we have to take notice. The Nasdaq100 will find support at 2512 and resistance at 2546-50 and 2575. The VIX moved around in a 10% range during the session, but ended up just 1.3% to 19.71. Futures are up significantly, on agreement in Europe to support the banks, this AM.

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