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Today's Technical Outlook-7/3/2012

Market Summary

David Chojnacki S1F Market Technician

After last Friday's big day, all eyes were on Monday's open, to see if the Market retained last week's strength. The indices tried to get off to the upside, but as we knew, the S&P was right near a fairly formidable resistance level. After hitting the 1366 level and a poor ISM report, the Market began to tail off. The S&P and the Nasdaq100 closed positive with a late day push, however, the DJIA remained off a few points. At the close, the DJIA was down 8.7 points, the S&P up 3.3 points, and the Nasdaq100 gaining 9.3 points. Breadth was positive 2.4 to 1, on below average volume. The holiday shortened week helped keep volume on the light side. RSI's remained just near or below the 60 level and near term strength continues fairly strong. The DJIA has found resistance near 12900, the recent June high, and will find formidable resistance at that level. It has recently traded mainly between 12400 and 12650 for the last seven weeks. This move out of the range and testing the June highs, suggests a possible move to test the May closing high of 13279. Look for support at 12724. The S&P lingers right near the 1363 level, closing 2 points above. If we could get some volume to confirm a push to the upside, we would see buyers come in and push the index back up to test the 1419 high. With the holiday shortened week and the Employment Report at the end of the week, it will be difficult to get this conviction. Look for support at the 1340 level. The Nasdaq100 closed just above its recent June closing high of 2623, but just below the intra-day high of 2633. Look for resistance at 2650 and 2700. The VIX moved lower by 1.6% to 16.80, adding to the conviction that there is more upside left in the latest move. The Market closes early today at 1:00pm. Futures slightly lower this morning.

Major Economic Reports Today

Factory Orders-10:00am Auto/Truck Sales-2:00pm

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