Have been trading n investing in the Indian stock market for 20+ years, has been my hobby to track markets and predict based on fundamental and technical models.
The Indian market shed 2.1 % last week, as expected. The inflation and poor inflow kept the pressure on the Indian markets. The PE ratio has fallen below the long term average of 19.4 times, is this time to see more correction? I think so. With such high inflations, the growth would be eaten away by inflation. India always got a premium to other emerging markets but with Inflation not getting under control and the government helpless on the supply side, would only put pressure on the markets. The result season has come as per expectations but margin pressure is showing up. The global markets were edgy due to the Egypt crisis. The US markets seem to be hitting new yearly highs due to the safe haven move. Technically the US markets seem to have topped and ready for a 10 % correction.
This week the Indian markets will look up to global cues, IIP data and the Inflation nos. we must see some volatile movements going forward. The government deadlock on the 2G scam and JPC will be in focus on the domestic side. The Egypt crisis is another thing the global markets will be looking at.
The derivatives position for the week stands at Rs 119515 Crs in OI; the PCR is at 1.11 the option IVs for Calls at 19 % & Puts at 22 %. The Nifty Future is trading at a discount of 13 points to spot. There is a level of indecision in the market with very low conviction.
Nifty on 4th Feb: 5395
Nifty trading ideas for the week: Buy Nifty around 5380 – 400 for a Target of 5540, Strict SL @ 5350. Short term trading in light of oversold conditions.
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India week ahead - 7th - 13th Feb 2011 2 comments
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StockTalks
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Is an Expiry of Options day too..so will have all short covering done n out..Now what ? correction looming..watch out
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