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Jose Koshy
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Have been trading n investing in the Indian stock market for 20+ years, has been my hobby to track markets and predict based on fundamental and technical models.
  • India week ahead - 3rd - 9th October 2011 0 comments
    Oct 2, 2011 7:49 AM | about stocks: IFN, EPI
    This week the Indian markets moved up as expected by 1.8 %, India was a market which stood out in the global markets. The volatility in the global markets have a telling effect on traders, a clear trend does not be seem to be there. We have an up day followed by a down day; this clearly shows the level of indecision and panic in some form in the market. The settlement of derivatives went off well in the Indian markets. The huge shorts ensured the markets were cushioned. The global cues were mixed, with Germany passing the much needed bill to support Greece and others in the EU in cased of crisis. Greece too has been going all out to tighten its belts to get the aid, the moves have been un popular with the locals, but have to be done. Last quarter is best to be forgotten with a fall of 15 – 19 %. There is this fear of much larger fall post the results, which most of them continue to believe will be weak. In the US the Debt yield and dividend yield is at 2 %, first time in close to 30 years. Taking a cue from this, we either need to see a sharp up move on Debt yields, this looks unlikely with the operation twist announced last week. The other option is a strong up move in Equities, which seems to be an option, the global risk is already factored in, the commodities seem to be correcting. The US $ needs to correct keeping these new moves. In India the Inflation continues to be strong, hope with the fall in commodities things can start slowing and induce fresh growth in the markets and get the interest rates down.
    This week the Indian markets will continue to be volatile, the September sales nos. of autos & cement will be viewed. The fear of further slow down seems to be showing up on the Put / Call ratio. The FII’s have been net sellers to the tune of Rs 3088 Crores in September; they have slowed down their sales from August though. The result expectations will drive the markets in the days to come. The global cues will be closely watched. The best season (Nov – Dec) globally for consumer sales is coming up soon.
    The derivatives position for the week stands at Rs 93231 Crs in OI; the PCR is at 1.40 the option IVs for Calls at 26 % & Puts at 33 %. The Nifty Future is trading at a 11 point discount to spot. The derivative position suggests a volatile movement. We can expect a trading range of 4900 - 5040. A decisive move is expected soon on either direction.
    Nifty on 30th September: 4943
    Nifty trading ideas for the week: Buy Nifty around 4900 levels for a Target of 5040 SL: 4880
    Stock ideas for the Week: Buy L&T around Rs 1340 for a Target of Rs 1450 SL: 1320
    Happy & safe trading
    Stocks: IFN, EPI
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