Jose Koshy's  Instablog

Jose Koshy
Send Message
Have been trading n investing in the Indian stock market for 20+ years, has been my hobby to track markets and predict based on fundamental and technical models.
  • India - Week Ahead - 18th - 24th Jan 2009 0 comments
    Jan 17, 2010 2:28 AM | about stocks: EEM, IFN, WIT, INFY, TTM, IBN, HDB
    The week saw some sideways moves in the Indian market, the markets opened with fantastic numbers from automobile, cement etc, we also had the Infosys numbers coming ahead of expectation. The markets don't seem to react despite all the good numbers, confirming the markets are nearing the top and there is fatigue. Was analyzing the market behavior post the great depression and we did see identical moves, we are not sure if this will play out again in the global markets but the chances are bright. There needs to be some large sovereign defaults to come soon. We have Greece, Portugal etc struggling. So we need to watch these carefully. How long can developed countries keep printing currency without fundamentals to back it ? Conservatism is the best mode at this hour. Live within your means.
     
    This week markets will look to the earnings season back again, but all of it seem to be discounted. In the US despite good results from JP.Morgan, Intel & Alcoa markets were not able to hold highs. The S&P is struggling @ the 1150 levels from where it is reacting downwards. This level is also a technical level from where the 2007 crash started. So you need strong fundamentals to take it ahead. In case it does, we will enter into a bubble territory which can be a disaster for the global markets. The good news is India need not unduly worry due the conservative mode of the RBI. India may not fall as much with its global peers.
     
    The derivative series has seen some good roll over to the new series, the derivatives positions for the week stand at Rs 109000 Crs OI; the PCR is at 1.28 the option IVs for Calls at 20 % & Puts at 22%. The no’s give a feel of complacency on the part of bulls. Technically, the markets are not convinced on the up move, the Nifty volumes are down > 30 %, the frightening part is the volumes on small cap stocks have moved up.
     
    We should see the much needed correction this weeks.
    Sell Nifty @ 5250  for a Target of 4950
    Stocks: EEM, IFN, WIT, INFY, TTM, IBN, HDB
Back To Jose Koshy's Instablog HomePage »

Instablogs are blogs which are instantly set up and networked within the Seeking Alpha community. Instablog posts are not selected, edited or screened by Seeking Alpha editors, in contrast to contributors' articles.

Comments (0)
Track new comments
Be the first to comment
Full index of posts »
Latest Followers

StockTalks

  • CIT filing Bankrupcy amid wild speculations, will be good for stocks as it opens. the suspense is done.
    Nov 2, 2009
  • Is an Expiry of Options day too..so will have all short covering done n out..Now what ? correction looming..watch out
    Jul 17, 2009
  • An interesting day with Goog, GE, IBM, Citi announcing results to a mixed bag. Technically Markets are staring @ S&P 500 of 945 resistance.
    Jul 17, 2009
More »

Latest Comments


Instablogs are Seeking Alpha's free blogging platform customized for finance, with instant set up and exposure to millions of readers interested in the financial markets. Publish your own instablog in minutes.