Jose Koshy's  Instablog

Jose Koshy
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Have been trading n investing in the Indian stock market for 20+ years, has been my hobby to track markets and predict based on fundamental and technical models.
  • India Week ahead - 12th - 18th April 2010 0 comments
    Apr 10, 2010 11:39 PM | about stocks: IFN, EEM, INFY, WIT, TTM, IBN, HDB
    The Indian markets were volatile and closed with a gain of 1.4 %, one of the top gaining markets globally. We advised against any buy positions due to the extreme volatility which pay throw up whipsaws. The global markets were heated with the Greece default, what is so new about this, the speculation drives volumes and sentiments. On Thursday Indian markets fell 1.6 % on this news and pulled back the next day. So the logic of trading can always be faulted due to huge upheaval in sentiments either way. This week the food inflation in India came @ 17.7 % way above manageable levels, still markets seem to be ignoring this. There is a sense of false optimism on a global scale and a correction is due, what will be the headlines that pulls it down, Greece default, earnings lower than expectation, Iran’s nuclear ambition, the weak bond auction in the US, large bank going bust………and many more such factors ? Am sure it is a matter of time before the big fall in the global markets.
    This week the markets will start off the earnings season with Infosys, HDFC bank starting off, on the global front Alcoa, GE, Intel & Google are slated to set the result season going, expectations have run high. The results will surely be better that last year but on quarter on quarter will show some sluggishness. The Rupee strengthening against the $ will drive imports of capital goods and affect exports. We also have the speculation on the Chinese currency forced to strengthen soon, this will make Chinese exports costlier, and also the Chinese may reduce their buying of the US debt, so a tricky situation for the US fed to manage. As long as the US printing press is on…guess nothing to worry yet! The US debt yields are dangerously close to the 4 % levels, a break on the upside (which looks inevitable) can get the US & the world on its knees, so watch out for this closely to see the next big economic stress.
    The derivatives position for the week stands at Rs 118000 Crs in OI; the PCR is at 1.39 the option IVs for Calls at 15 % & Puts at 17 %. The derivative position gives a feel uncertainty, so we must get a break from the range soon. Watch the 5250 – 5400 range closely.
    Nifty on 9th April: 5361
    For the week: Sell Nifty around 5400 for a target of 5150
    Stock trading Ideas: Sell Chambal fertilizers @ Rs 64 range for a Target of Rs 58 or lower SL: 64.50 (In 2 weeks)                        
    Happy Trading!
    Stocks: IFN, EEM, INFY, WIT, TTM, IBN, HDB
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