Seeking Alpha

Jose Koshy's  Instablog

Jose Koshy
Send Message
Have been trading n investing in the Indian stock market for 20+ years, has been my hobby to track markets and predict based on fundamental and technical models.
  • India - week ahead - 12th - 18th July 2010 0 comments
    Jul 11, 2010 2:35 AM | about stocks: IFN, EEM, INFY, WIT, TTM, IBN

    The global markets shined last week with a 5+% up move, this came post a bad week in global markets. The Indian markets did not go into a euphoric mode and moved up 2 %. So the talk across is, are we on a new up move globally or is it a dead cat bounce? I wish the markets had the octopus or a parrot to decipher thisJ. As a trader, would think the latter, for the following reasons 1. All the governments have started the ‘pull out from stimulus’ to avoid runaway inflation (This may be good from a macro economic model, but in a developed market where growth is still stuttering, will cause a ripple effect downwards). 2.  The loose money which created growth in the last 18 months may not be there to support a global up move. The Indian market in the meantime has been reflecting on the good news from monsoons and an expectation of a good earnings season. Last week also saw the biggest IPO of Agri Bank of China ($22.1billion) going through without any issues. So there is ample liquidity to support good issues and themes in emerging markets. The IMF also raised the India GDP estimate to 9.5 %, the developed world will want to give all their money to India sooner. India as a power house will be seen by all in this generation, we are at a state where US was post 1970 or Japan in the 1980’s. I was reading an article recently which said, retail ownership in blue chips has reduced this year, this is a classic case that Retail investors will not believe in India till after many years and when they join it, that is when the bubble will form. History is always so.

    This week the Indian markets will look up to the IIP nos & the result season. The results seem to be discounted in the price, so we may not get an up move that all are betting on and instead will get a correction to the mean. Last week India underperformed the global markets, so it is India’s time in the short term to do so. The prominent results this week are from Infosys, TCS, HDFC, Hotel leela. On global arena, results from Alcoa, Google, Citibank & Intel will be watched closely for cues. The China GDP nos. too will give a feel of the demand situation. Mind you markets look ahead, so a great result does not mean an up move. Need to watch out for what will happen in the future.

    The derivatives position for the week stands at Rs 140571 Crs in OI; the PCR is at 1.31 the option IVs for Calls at 16 % & Puts at 20 %. We are hitting the IV at the lower band and the PCR is suggesting, we must start the fall soon.

    Nifty on 9th July: 5352

    For the week: Sell Nifty on a move to 5400 for a Target of 5180. Stop Loss: 5420

    Stock trading Ideas: Sell Tata Steel @ Rs 510 for a target of Rs 480. SL @ Rs 516 

    Happy Trading!

     
    Themes: India Emerging Markets Stocks: IFN, EEM, INFY, WIT, TTM, IBN
Back To Jose Koshy's Instablog HomePage »

Instablogs are blogs which are instantly set up and networked within the Seeking Alpha community. Instablog posts are not selected, edited or screened by Seeking Alpha editors, in contrast to contributors' articles.

Comments (0)
Track new comments
Be the first to comment
Full index of posts »
Latest Followers

StockTalks

  • CIT filing Bankrupcy amid wild speculations, will be good for stocks as it opens. the suspense is done.
    Nov 2, 2009
  • Is an Expiry of Options day too..so will have all short covering done n out..Now what ? correction looming..watch out
    Jul 17, 2009
  • An interesting day with Goog, GE, IBM, Citi announcing results to a mixed bag. Technically Markets are staring @ S&P 500 of 945 resistance.
    Jul 17, 2009
More »

Latest Comments


Posts by Themes
Instablogs are Seeking Alpha's free blogging platform customized for finance, with instant set up and exposure to millions of readers interested in the financial markets. Publish your own instablog in minutes.