Jose Koshy's  Instablog

Jose Koshy
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Have been trading n investing in the Indian stock market for 20+ years, has been my hobby to track markets and predict based on fundamental and technical models.
  • India week ahead - 19th - 25th July 2010 1 comment
    Jul 18, 2010 3:37 AM | about stocks: EEM, IFN, INFY, TTM, IBN, SPY

    The global markets had a good up move till Thursday and gave it all up on Friday; the Indian markets went up 0.7 % after hitting a new high. The Global markets were down    1 – 2 % due to the US sentiment index coming lower than expected. The result season across the world came out better than expected and the analyst wanted all the Co’s to beat the forecasts by a mile. This happened with Infosys in India to Alcoa, Google & GE in the US. So ‘Buy the expectation, Sell the News’ seem to be the flavor in this result season. Markets are operated by social beings and swing with the mood, the analyst community were upping their forecasts for the last 6 quarters, and may have run ahead of their time and a small disappointment leads to a Sell off. We will continue this sell off lasting into the earning season in spite of some fantastic nos. from the top companies. The economic activity is gauged by the shipping index ‘BDI’ and has been on a downfall from May and is down a whopping 60 %, typically this is a leading indicator of the economic activity into the future. This gauge went down from a 12000 to 650 ie. 95 % drop in June – December 2008. So are we going to see a repeat? Based on all the indication ie. Pull back on stimulus, Low growth in developed markets, high unemployment, would think we are headed to this scenario sooner. In the midst of all this Indian rupee has a new symbol `, so Indian rupee joins the elite currency club. The Indian growth in the next 20 years will be jaw popping, so get ready for the ride in India. A caveat: watch inflation & fiscal situation closely.

    This week the Indian markets will look up to the earning season & the global cues, the FII’s have been buying aggressively in July, they have brought in $ 1.1 billion of the 2 billion brought in 2010 YTD. You need to watch them closely, as they are short term funds than the typical long only funds like Insurance or pension funds. So the FII’s are fair weather friends for India, their inflow & outflow decides the fate in the short term..How Sad! In the mean time the DII’s have been net sellers $ 500 million in July to date and have a net inflow of $ 2 billion in 2010 to date. So what scares me is buying is always slow, but sellers run for exit at one go…you need to watch for this syndrome in the week ahead.

    The derivatives position for the week stands at ` 156835 Crs in OI; the PCR is at 1.41 the option IVs for Calls at 15 % & Puts at 20 %. We are hitting the IV at the lower band and the PCR is suggesting, we will have a rush to the exit this week.

    Nifty on 16th July: 5393

    For the week: Sell Nifty on a move to 5400 for a Target of 5180. Stop Loss: 5420

    Stock trading Ideas: Sell Sterlite @ ` 166 for a target of ` 140. SL @ ` 172


    Happy Trading!

    Stocks: EEM, IFN, INFY, TTM, IBN, SPY
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  • Girish
    , contributor
    Comment (1) | Send Message
    Hi Jose...I have sincerely found your stock blogs very effective and useful at almost all the occasions. Must appreciate your knowledge of the subject and explanation of the same in your blogs...they are extremely simple to understand from which even a novice in share market can take immense help in learning as well as getting trading benefits. Personally, I am a witness to the fact that I have regained my lost confidence in the share market after taking leads from your contibutions. Sincerely thank you for the same.
    20 Jul 2010, 08:05 AM Reply Like
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