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John Thomas graduated with a bachelor’s degree in biochemistry with honors and a minor in mathematics from the University of California at Los Angeles (U.C.L.A.) in 1974. He moved to Tokyo, Japan where he was employed by a medium-sized Japanese securities house. Thomas became fluent in... More
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  • There's a black Swan Coming Out of Japan 0 comments
    Jul 29, 2009 05:13 PM | about stocks: JEQ, JOF, DND, DNL
    Japanese Prime Minister Taro Aso’s call for national elections on August 30 is setting up a potential “black swan” type event. His Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) has ruled for all but 11 months of the past 55 years. But his party’s 18 year effort to spend itself out of an “L” shaped recovery has failed miserably, succeeding only in converting Japan from the least, to the most indebted industrialized country.  Think of a 1,000 “bridges to nowhere.” Look at the 30 year round trip in Japanese real estate in the chart below. So the opposition Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) has a real shot here, which has promised to fundamentally remake the economy by boosting social spending, canceling useless construction projects, and encouraging domestic consumption. Remember what a surprise Congress Party win did for India’s stock market? Look at the excellent piece from The Permanent Wealth Investor’s Martin Hutchinson  for an analysis of how such an outcome could affect Japan on a stock by stock basis by clicking here.

    Stocks: JEQ, JOF, DND, DNL
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