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John Thomas graduated with a bachelor’s degree in biochemistry with honors and a minor in mathematics from the University of California at Los Angeles (U.C.L.A.) in 1974. He moved to Tokyo, Japan where he was employed by a medium-sized Japanese securities house. Thomas became fluent in Japanese... More
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  • More Falls to Come in Commercial Real Estate 0 comments
    May 9, 2009 10:30 AM

    George Soros says that it is “inevitable” that commercial real estate falls another 30%. Rents are falling, tenant bankruptcies are rising, there is tons of debt to be refinanced for which there is no market, so cap rates are rocketing and “ghost mall” has joined the recessionary lexicon. This all adds up to lower prices. Some credit default swaps are trading at levels suggesting that a major REIT bankruptcy is imminent. I know George is sometimes prone to extreme statements, but this time he may be on to something. If you want a short play, or if you have an existing long position in commercial real estate which you can’t get out of and want to hedge, try a short position in the (NYSEARCA:IYR). You can also play one of the sicker REIT names like Brookfield Properties (NYSE:BPO).

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