On March 23, DDRX( Diedrich Coffee) reported its quarter till March 5 report. DDRX's revenue goes up 72.3% to 19.5m, led by the K-cup product revenue jumping about 95.9%.
DDRX is a good prophet for GMCR's coming quarterly result.
Historically, we compare the K-cup revenue of DDRX / GMCR and all the K-CUP growth as follows (although DDRX's report time is about 25 days earlier than GMCR)
DDRX GMCR ALL K-CUP SALES
2007 growth 49.7% 41% 42%
2008 growth 61.6% 61% 59%
We can conclude that DDRX's K-cup revenue grows a bit faster than GMCR and the whole K-cup sales, but they go for the same direction. DDRX's K-cup revenue growth is a good indicator to the GMCR!
So , because the K-cup coffee revenue of DDRX was accerlating to 95.9% this quarter( till Mar 5), GMC's this quarter revenue will win great growth,too. But as to the K-cup ratio of revenue, GMC is lower than DDRX, so
GMC's revenue maybe grow at 70%-75% to about 140 million dollar, which is great outperforming the market expectations!
KEURIG is also benefit from the DDRX's result, although we cannot anticipate the brewer sale number, because the brewer donot earn money, only the revenue and locking the future revenue. Historically, KEURIG's earning grows at the same pace with its customers,such as DDRX.
THE CONCLUSION is GMCR's quarterly of Mar 29 will be a surprising growth! The market is seeming to neglect the fact that DDRX's quarterly report suggests!