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  • Why GMCR's quarterly result will be very good? 1 comment
    Apr 25, 2009 1:30 AM | about stocks: GMCR, DDRX

    On March 23, DDRX( Diedrich Coffee) reported its quarter till March 5 report. DDRX's revenue goes up 72.3% to 19.5m, led by the K-cup product revenue jumping about 95.9%.

    DDRX is a good prophet for GMCR's coming quarterly result.

    Historically, we compare the K-cup revenue of DDRX / GMCR and all the K-CUP growth as follows (although DDRX's report time is about 25 days  earlier than GMCR)

                                      DDRX        GMCR           ALL K-CUP SALES
    2007 growth             49.7%          41%                        42%
    2008 growth             61.6%          61%                         59%

    We can conclude that DDRX's K-cup  revenue grows a bit faster than GMCR and the whole K-cup sales, but they go for the same direction. DDRX's K-cup revenue growth is a good indicator to the GMCR!

    So , because the K-cup coffee revenue of DDRX was accerlating to 95.9% this quarter( till Mar 5), GMC's this quarter revenue will win great growth,too. But as to the K-cup ratio of revenue, GMC is lower than DDRX, so
    GMC's revenue maybe grow at 70%-75% to about 140 million dollar, which is great outperforming the market expectations!

    KEURIG is also benefit from the DDRX's result, although we cannot anticipate the brewer sale number, because the brewer donot earn money, only the revenue and locking the future revenue. Historically, KEURIG's earning grows at the same pace with its customers,such as DDRX.

    THE CONCLUSION is GMCR's quarterly of Mar 29 will be a surprising growth! The market is seeming to neglect the fact that DDRX's quarterly report suggests!

    Stocks: GMCR, DDRX
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  • rainman.zhao
    , contributor
    Comment (1) | Send Message
     
    very nice analysis !
    25 Apr 2009, 01:50 AM Reply Like
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