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Goldman Sachs (GS) analyst David Kostin argues that investors are wildly confused about "cash on the sidelines," how much there is, and how much of it is likely to flow into equities.
In 3Q09, reserve/NPLs fell from 85% to 82%. While not our favorite metric (remember that in several circumstances NPLs are already written down to market value) and it is not uncommon to see this metric fall at this point in the cycle, we believe that some banks have to be approaching ‘floors’ and believe regulators are looking at this.
Strictly from a historical perspective, this market is overdue for a correction. As a result, I found myself examining the many offerings in the ProShares family of exchange-traded funds that let investors profit from market declines. I came away convinced that in unusual circumstances, some of these funds can play a useful role.
My, my — Tuesday’s US consumer confidence survey certainly took some analysts by surprise. The Conference Board’s confidence index fell to 47.7 from a revised 53.4 in September, while analysts polled by Reuters had expected a rise to 57.0. The present situation index, meanwhile, fell to 20.7 from 23.0 last month, while the expectations index fell to 65.7 from 73.7 in September.
Those who doubt an economic recovery is under way may want to check out the latest investor letter from Paul Tudor Jones. The legendary hedge fund manager of Tudor Investment sees a wave of money flowing into the markets, pushing up stocks, commodities and other assets in what he terms “The Great Liquidity Race.”
Asian shares fell sharply on Thursday after weak US economic data rekindled investor worries about growth, while hedge funds sold risky assets, lifting the yen and supporting the dollar.
Japanese industrial production rose for a seventh consecutive month in September, underlining the recovery in exports because of stronger demand from China and worldwide government stimulus spending.
ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: buyiShares MSCI-Japan;
ArcelorMittal is planning a 50 per cent increase in capital spending next year to take advantage of growth opportunities in emerging markets, as more signs are pointing to a broad upturn in the steel industry.Countries targeted for an increase in investment include Brazil, Kazakhstan and South Africa, where the group already has plants.
The banks that do have the financial wherewithal — like Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan Chase, which made combined profits of nearly $7 billion in the third quarter — are not making their money through lending. They are making it from trading complex financial products that few people understand.
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ETFDesk Top News and Investment Ideas 10/29/2009 0 comments
Goldman: Cash On The Sidelines Is WAY Less Than People Think
Posted: 28 Oct 2009 12:56 AM PDT
ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: sell DJIA DIAMONDS; sell S&P 500 SPDR; sell Nasdaq-100 Index Tracking Stock;
Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion
Regulators looking at banks’ coverage ratios, BarCap says
Posted: 28 Oct 2009 12:57 AM PDT
ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: sell KBW Bank ETF; sell KBW Regional Banking ETF; sell SPDR-Financial;
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Dollar Rally Sinks Commodity ETFs
Posted: 28 Oct 2009 05:21 AM PDT
ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: buy PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund; sell United States Oil Fund LP;
Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion
An Experiment in Taking More Risk
Posted: 28 Oct 2009 06:54 AM PDT
ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: buy UltraShort QQQ ProShares;
Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion
Foreign direct investment: Overtaking
Posted: 28 Oct 2009 07:45 AM PDT
ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: buy iShares MSCI-Emerging Markets; sell iShares MSCI-EAFE;
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Analysts still confident even if US consumers aren’t
Posted: 28 Oct 2009 07:53 AM PDT
ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: sell Retail HOLDRS; sell SPDR S&P Retail ETF; sell iShares FTSE NAREIT Retail Index Fund;
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Seeing Next Boom, Tudor Goes for Gold
Posted: 28 Oct 2009 03:20 PM PDT
ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: buy PowerShares DB Gold Fund; buy streetTRACKS Gold Trust; buyProShares Ultra Gold;
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US economy is growing once again
Posted: 28 Oct 2009 10:53 PM PDT
ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: buy SPDR S&P World ex-US ETF; buy PowerShares DWA Developed Markets Technical Leaders Portfolio ETF;
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Newmont Mining Profit More Than Doubles
Posted: 28 Oct 2009 11:11 PM PDT
ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: buy Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF;
Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion
Growth concerns hit Asian equities
Posted: 29 Oct 2009 12:04 AM PDT
ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: sell iShares MSCI-Pacific ex-Japan Index;
Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion
Export revival lifts Japanese manufacturers
Posted: 29 Oct 2009 12:05 AM PDT
ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: buy iShares MSCI-Japan;
Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion
ArcelorMittal plans 50% rise in spending
Posted: 29 Oct 2009 12:06 AM PDT
ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: buy Market Vectors Steel Index Fund; buy iShares MSCI-South Africa;
Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion
Ongoing Agony of the Banks
Posted: 29 Oct 2009 12:32 AM PDT
ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to: sell KBW Regional Banking ETF; buy iShares Dow Jones U.S. Broker-Dealers Index Fund;
Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion
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