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ETFDesk Daily 12/01/2009 Top News and Investment Ideas

|Includes:DIA, EFA, FXI, GCH, IEV, IGOV, iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM), QQQ, RTH, RTL, SCZ, SDS, SPY, TAO, TLT, VXX, VXZ, XRT

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Today's market-moving headlines, macro trade ideas and more...

  • 5 REASONS TO EXPECT A NEAR-TERM SELL-OFF
  • Dave Rosenberg 11/30/2009 KEEP AN EYE ON THE CREDIT MARKETS AGAIN
  • Tail Risk in Sovereign CDS
  • How overbuilt is China?
  • Why Black Friday Data Points To A Grim Holiday Season
  • Hussman: 80% Chance Of A Market Crash Over The Next Year
  • Morgan Stanley fears UK sovereign debt crisis in 2010
  • Morgan Stanley: Here Comes A Brutal 2010
  • GCH Reports Earnings and Holdings as of November 30, 2009

5 REASONS TO EXPECT A NEAR-TERM SELL-OFF

Posted: 30 Nov 2009 02:15 AM PST

Strategists at Credit Suisse are currently expecting a near-term equity sell-off, but are not yet concerned about the downturn evolving into a larger bear market decline. Why have they turned a bit more cautious? A series of psychological, fundamental and technical events:

ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to:
 sell DJIA DIAMONDS (NYSEARCA:DIA); sell S&P 500 SPDR (NYSEARCA:SPY); sell Nasdaq-100 Index Tracking Stock (QQQQ); sell iShares Russell 2000 (NYSEARCA:IWM); 

Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

 

Dave Rosenberg 11/30/2009 KEEP AN EYE ON THE CREDIT MARKETS AGAIN

Posted: 30 Nov 2009 02:42 AM PST

Buying call options on volatility has rarely looked as attractive as is the case today if this Dubai situation turns into something even fractionally similar to what happened in places like Thailand, Russia or Argentina. Once the complacency is shaken out of the market, which in our view would be a good thing, it is going to give those who have been skeptical over this “liquidity-induced” rally a chance to take out our rulers and sharpen our pencils.

ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to:
 buy iPath S&P 500 VIX Mid-Term Futures ETN (NYSEARCA:VXZ); buy iPath S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN (NYSEARCA:VXX); 

Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

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Tail Risk in Sovereign CDS

Posted: 30 Nov 2009 04:32 AM PST

Will the tail wag the dog again? Or, more specifically, will the rise of sovereign credit default swaps drive pricing in government bond markets? The Dubai shock has highlighted disconnects between the two markets. The traditional flight-to-safety bid led U.S. Treasurys and U.K. gilts to rally sharply. But the nature of the shock – a reminder that governments have balance-sheet constraints – pushed up the cost of insuring even high-quality sovereigns against default. That suggests

ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to:
 sell iShares S&P/Citigroup International Treasury Fund (NASDAQ:IGOV); 

Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

How overbuilt is China?

Posted: 30 Nov 2009 05:32 AM PST

LATELY, Tyler Cowen has been pushing an Austrian view of economic activity in China, namely, that government policies are generating far too much investment in certain sectors of the Chinese economy, setting the stage for an eventual collapse as resources are re-allocated back to productive uses. Over the weekend, Mr Cowen developed the argument in a New York Times piece:

ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to:
 sell iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25 (NYSEARCA:FXI); sell Claymore/AlphaShares China Real Estate ETF (NYSEARCA:TAO); 

Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

Why Black Friday Data Points To A Grim Holiday Season

Posted: 30 Nov 2009 07:21 AM PST

If you were counting on what Glenn Reynolds calls "the retail support brigade" to come riding over the hills, you might want to rethink. After last year turned in one of the worst holiday shopping seasons in decades, people were hoping that things might perk up this year, but Black Friday's results don't look too good for retailers. Sales were up a paltry 0.5% from last year, and that only because a lot more people came out bargain-hunting.

ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to:
 sell Retail HOLDRS (NYSEARCA:RTH); sell SPDR S&P Retail ETF (NYSEARCA:XRT); sell iShares FTSE NAREIT Retail Index Fund (NYSEARCA:RTL); 

Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

Hussman: 80% Chance Of A Market Crash Over The Next Year

Posted: 30 Nov 2009 02:13 PM PST

Fund manager John Hussman says he under-estimated how little investors have learned in the market crashes of recent years and thus has missed much of the market upside this year

ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to:
 sell DJIA DIAMONDS (DIA); buy iShares Lehman 20+ Year Treasury Bond Fund (NYSEARCA:TLT); buy UltraShort S&P 500 ProShares (NYSEARCA:SDS); sell S&P 500 SPDR (SPY); sell iShares Russell 2000 (IWM); buy PIMCO 7-15 Year U.S. Treasury Index Fund (NYSEARCA:TENZ); 

Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

 


Morgan Stanley fears UK sovereign debt crisis in 2010

Posted: 01 Dec 2009 12:06 AM PST

Britain risks becoming the first country in the G10 bloc of major economies to risk capital flight and a full-blown debt crisis over coming months, according to a client note by Morgan Stanley. 

ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to:
 sell iShares S&P/Citigroup International Treasury Fund (IGOV); 

Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

Morgan Stanley: Here Comes A Brutal 2010

Posted: 01 Dec 2009 12:16 AM PST

Morgan Stanley's head of European research Teun Draaisma is out with a market outlook for 2010, and it's not pretty.

ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to:
 sell iShares S&P Europe 350 Index (NYSEARCA:IEV); sell iShares MSCI-EAFE (NYSEARCA:EFA); sell iShares MSCI EAFE Small Cap Index Fund (NYSEARCA:SCZ); 

Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

GCH Reports Earnings and Holdings as of November 30, 2009

Posted: 01 Dec 2009 12:46 AM PST

GCH Reports Earnings and Holdings as of November 30, 2009 

ETFDesk users see this as a potential opportunity to:
 buy Greater China Fund, Inc. (NYSE:GCH); 

Check out how others are using ETFs to capitalize on this news or add your own opinion

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