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There are only two things in this world that I can't stand...people who are intolerant of other people's cultures, and the Dutch.
  • Goodbye Government Healthcare Goodbye Cap N Trade 41 comments
    Nov 4, 2009 07:55 AM
    The Dems were already retreating on healthcare legislation Tuesday before the polls had even closed in New Jersey and New York.

    No vote in the senate is expected this year.

    Same for Crap N Tirade.

    Is this good or bad for the dollar?

    My own take is that this is bad for the buck. I've viewed healthcare and energy taxes as nothing more than thinly disguised revenue generators since they were first brought up.

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This post has 41 comments:

  •  
    I think it is better for the economy. Let the citizens decide how they want to spend their money. Politicians just spend it foolishly. A better economy does not necessarily mean a stronger buck at this point. That will be determined by the FED and our debt.

    When I was young in the Corps I used to spend most of my money on wine, women and song, the rest I spent foolishly. I would like to be the one that spends my money foolishly. God only knows what the politicians will spend it on.
    2009 Nov 04 08:18 AM Reply
  •  
    Totally agree with your comment Guns.

    I'm just saying that the rest of the world wants to see us balance our books and, as much as I despise Gov Healthcare, it was the tool to extract trillions of dollars in return for crappy healthcare.

    It's like if I stole your house and said you could still live in it, but I would be charging three other families to share it with you.

    Same thing goes with energy taxes. It's a payoff to the rest of the world for them to continue funding our credit card lifestyle.
    2009 Nov 04 08:27 AM Reply
  •  
    I totally agree with your thinking, goldhoard.

    The facade of "deficit neutral" they were trying to wrap Hellcare in was laughable.

    Last night's elections will have every Democrat in DC sweating this morning...

    I can hear them dripping from here.
    2009 Nov 04 08:29 AM Reply
  •  
    'Dripping'?

    Sounds more like an involuntary steady stream of kidney processed scotch to me.
    2009 Nov 04 08:42 AM Reply
  •  
    They should try to recycle that. Al Gore would be proud.


    On Nov 04 08:42 AM yellowhoard wrote:

    > 'Dripping'?
    >
    > Sounds more like an involuntary steady stream of kidney processed
    > scotch to me.
    2009 Nov 04 08:50 AM Reply
  •  
    Hey, you're right, I can SMELL them too.


    On Nov 04 08:42 AM yellowhoard wrote:

    > 'Dripping'?
    >
    > Sounds more like an involuntary steady stream of kidney processed
    > scotch to me.
    2009 Nov 04 08:59 AM Reply
  •  
    YH, I don't know exactly how to relate the dollar to cap 'n trade nor the health care questions. But I can see a whole lot of reasons why we might be entering a short period of time where we're going to see something we haven't seen in many, many moons. The dollar and gold going up at the same time. Investors won't likely be able to understand the reasoning for it, but there are economic situations where the mix is just right (more accurately I should say just "wrong"). I think we're there.

    And just as a side note, whether there is any validity to Elliott Wave theory or not, the wave "count" suggests a hell of a pop in the dollar is possible (odds greater than 60/40 I'd say). In this rare atmosphere, that wouldn't conflict with gold rising. And the path of gold is so clear according to EWT that it's not even worth mentioning. You know where it's goin'. lol

    So for what its worth, this might be a scenario we should at least consider. It'll be interesting for sure... I think it's about to happen
    2009 Nov 04 09:08 AM Reply
  •  
    I think you're right Rocks.

    Short term, we could see an equities crash and a dollar and gold rally.

    Everyone knows that the dollar stinks, so they, foreigners, will go to a combination of cash and metals next time we see a market crash.
    2009 Nov 04 09:14 AM Reply
  •  
    I tink we're onto somethin' here. Right now, the dollar is worth 1/1080th of an ounce of real money. Gold could go to 1200 next month, so the dollar would be worth 1/1200th of an ounce of real money. But commodities other than gold I think are in for a shock. I can envision everything falling in terms of real money, except the dollar which should hold up pretty well. I keep saying "for what its worth" when talking about EWT because so many people think it's just voodoo, but it's not. Just for shits & giggles, right now it suggests the strengthening in the dollar could last 4 or 5 months (ballpark). Then, the dollar tanks, and gold just keeps on truckin'. I mean accelerating.

    But who knows for sure? But I sure wouldn't be surprised to hear news out of the G-20 or out of the FED that supports my view. If it doesn't, well then I guess I suck at logic. lol
    2009 Nov 04 09:26 AM Reply
  •  
    Hoard, what do you think will happen to gold and the dollar when the FED begins to tighten? And when do you expect them to start?
    2009 Nov 04 09:29 AM Reply
  •  
    Knee cap our trade and universal misery care would have been disastrous for all facets of the economy. Only Al Gore, a few commercial companies, and the select group of investors around them stood to profit from cap-n-trade. Only the Democrat party stood to gain from the no health care proposals they were making. Hopefully this will kill the pair of them and relieve much of the uncertainty surrounding economic activity short term. Now maybe we can try the free stuff first as stand alone bills. Meaning tort reform and health insurers being allowed to compete nation wide. Granted these solutions will face much opposition and can't be accomplished by waving a magic wand but they are infinitely more palatable than the 2000 page monstrosity in the house.
    2009 Nov 04 09:30 AM Reply
  •  
    I can't see the Fed raising interest rates in the foreseeable future.

    The immediate damage would destroy the party in power, so they, the Dems, won't allow it to happen.


    On Nov 04 09:29 AM ScroogeMcduck wrote:

    > Hoard, what do you think will happen to gold and the dollar when
    > the FED begins to tighten? And when do you expect them to start?
    2009 Nov 04 09:42 AM Reply
  •  
    YH----What would your time parameters be on "short term"? Your estimate. Thanks, Swash.


    On Nov 04 09:14 AM yellowhoard wrote:

    > I think you're right Rocks.
    >
    > Short term, we could see an equities crash and a dollar and gold
    > rally.
    >
    > Everyone knows that the dollar stinks, so they, foreigners, will
    > go to a combination of cash and metals next time we see a market
    > crash.
    2009 Nov 04 09:45 AM Reply
  •  
    Swash,

    12 weeks ought to do it.

    Christmas sales will be a disaster and commercial real estate will take a big kick to the groin shortly thereafter.
    2009 Nov 04 09:49 AM Reply
  •  
    Thanks YH
    2009 Nov 04 09:51 AM Reply
  •  
    Hey guys, I've come across a phenomenon that has me absolutely mystified. I'd sure like your take on it. I can see patterns in the charts of nearly every index you could care to name, and they all point to the same conclusion. Let's assume that the conclusion that every practitioner of EW theory has come to is wrong or at least a moot point. Let's ignore their conclusions for now. Here's what I'm seeing:

    The only index that is developing a pattern that is so out of whack with the others is the real estate indexes. As of today, the pattern in their charts is suggesting prices could really take off upward. I find that impossible to believe and totally illogical. Nonetheless, that's what the charts are suggesting. There's no doubt about it, when searching for wave patterns, they only become truly visible once the price action is in the past. In real time, EW theory can throw some real head fakes and red herrings.

    Can any of you envision any scenario that would give credence to the notion of real estate values taking off upward? I can't. It's just not logical, but the chart is so out of whack with the other indexes, I just have to beg the question.

    Any ideas?
    2009 Nov 04 10:47 AM Reply
  •  
    What if the US and G20 were discussing an overnight halving in the value of the buck?

    You wake up in the morning and your house has doubled in value.
    2009 Nov 04 10:55 AM Reply
  •  
    And so would gold and everything else priced in American dollars. I'd be fuck'd with that one, but that's beside the point. I've heard rumblings about that idea of the dollar being devalued in one fall swoop like that, and I've heard rumors about a "bankers' holiday" and other weird stuff. Bond holders would be screwed too, no? So I don't see how they can do such a thing YH. I absolutely believe something very strange is in the works, but I don't know what it is. Another "event"? An "event" such as you propose?

    I'm also 100% convinced that the entire flu farce is being used as a massive distraction. I think the whores who own the FED's owners are actually scared of something.
    2009 Nov 04 11:07 AM Reply
  •  
    Alberta---Have you researched Prechter's track record? My understanding is that he has made some terrific calls, but that he has made at least as many atrocious calls. I've read TONS of information indicting his long-term performance, including Wiki saying that Prechter has underperformed long term for 25% a year, which ain't peanuts. On the other hand, I read years ago where Paul Tudor Jones, one of the best money managers, said that EW allows for incredibly favorable risk/reward ratios in trading. I'm not a fan of Prechter by any stretch, but I do agree with his position that we may soon be facing a holocaust of sorts in the financial markets.
    2009 Nov 04 11:14 AM Reply
  •  
    Yes I have Swash, and I agree totally that EW theory can throw some real bad signals. That's why it represents perhaps 20% of everything I look at. So when I see a pattern like this that doesn't make any sense, I certainly have to question its validity. I thought if someone had a good reason why real estate prices should surge, it might all make sense, but so far I think I have to ignore the pattern. It sounds like you probably agree?
    2009 Nov 04 11:29 AM Reply
  •  
    Rocks: I'm pretty sure I'm right about this, that the dollar is still worth more than it was at the end of Oct 08. Yet gold is way up. Long term screwyness?
    2009 Nov 04 11:34 AM Reply
  •  
    Alberta---EW is probably helpful to those like you who have spent serious time learning it, but IMO, probably best used as one of, maybe even the main, tool in a larger arsenal. As you said, 20% sounds fine. I doubt ANY single indicator or method is infallible.
    2009 Nov 04 11:48 AM Reply
  •  
    On Nov 04 11:34 AM Mayascribe wrote:

    > Rocks: I'm pretty sure I'm right about this, that the dollar is still worth more than it was at the end of Oct 08. Yet gold is way up. Long term screwyness?<

    Here's that chart again buddy that give a nice picture of the dollar. Relative to a basket of other currencies as measured in the US Dollar Index, the dollar is weaker than it was at the end of '08. My feeling is that the dollar is due for a pretty hefty bounce but if it happens I can't see it reaching much more than perhaps .82 on this index. Relative to oil and most commodities, the dollar is weaker as well.

    BTW, I'm trying my damnedest to get out of SA on my own terms, before my character assassination is complete. I've been trying for nearly a week now, but Eli hasn't responded yet.
    2009 Nov 04 12:04 PM Reply
  •  
    It would help if I'd attached it I guess.

    stockcharts.com/h-sc/u...
    2009 Nov 04 12:06 PM Reply
  •  
    I would not place too much confidence in the validity of that inverse correlation of the USD and the S&P shown in the chart. That relationship is only valid since 2003, and was in fact directly opposite prior to that. I commented elsewhere about this chart.
    2009 Nov 04 12:18 PM Reply
  •  
    On Nov 04 12:18 PM Swashbuckler wrote:

    > I would not place too much confidence in the validity of that inverse correlation of the USD and the S&amp;P shown in the chart. That relationship is only valid since 2003, and was in fact directly opposite prior to that. I commented elsewhere about this chart.<

    Yeah, that's why I think the chart is important Swash. Something has clearly changed since 2003. I contend that the dollar and the markets move together, both upwards, when the economy is truly strong. The fact that they are moving in inverse has been pretty much locked since 2006. I don't think there's any question about the validity since it's not predicting anything. It's just showing history. Maybe something will change that allows thr relationship to once again return to where both stocks and dollars are moving in the same direction.
    2009 Nov 04 12:38 PM Reply
  •  
    Alberta---In your opinion, what would it take for the dollar and the markets to both simultaneously head south? Some people, apparently not you, have been very definitely inferring that a strong stock market is a given because of a weak dollar. And that inference, IMO, is suspect because of history prior to 2003.
    2009 Nov 04 12:47 PM Reply
  •  
    No Swash old buddy. I think you misunderstand what I'm saying. I agree with the others who say that a strong stock market is due to a weaker dollar. Because the dollar is weakening, we're see the prices of items, other than the stock market, like commodities and metals surge in value as well .

    What the chart is showing is that unless by some magic the "inverse" relationship somehow suddenly becomes disconnected, then if the dollar rises over the next month, stocks "will" drop. I'm not suggesting the chart has any predictive value. It's only showing a relationship that as of this moment in time, does indeed exist.

    I can't imagine what would cause the dollar and stocks to both rise together until the economy strengthens considerably. What would cause them to both drop together at the same time would be a more nasty situation. It could only happen I guess if the FED were to allow the dollar to drop in value and the stock markets were falling for some other reason, maybe someone admitting that the economy is weaker than people have been told, or maybe an overall lack of confidence. I don't know for sure Swash. I'm just trying to learn something every day like H.T.L :-)
    2009 Nov 04 01:22 PM Reply
  •  
    On Nov 04 11:48 AM Swashbuckler wrote:

    > I doubt ANY single indicator or method is infallible.<

    You got that right. The day I find the holy grail, you'll be the first to know. lol
    2009 Nov 04 01:24 PM Reply
  •  
    Thanks Alberta---I follow what you are saying now. On the one hand, I get frustrated when I can't understand much of the details of the technical stuff. On the other hand, I haven't spent much time there. I guess I can't have my cake and eat it too (damn I hate cliches). That grail would be nice....
    2009 Nov 04 01:41 PM Reply
  •  
    Rocks does your realestate index include farm land?
    2009 Nov 04 01:58 PM Reply
  •  
    Try not to feel frustrated Swash. It took me so many years to get what little understanding I have today. The biggest problem I think I had was that at first, I didn't know why bond markets moved up or down. I had no interest in bonds when I was in my 30s so I paid them no attention. Then when I got into my 50s I got a good handle on the bigger picture, the global perspective, and it all started to make a lot more sense. Then when I got into my 60s I started smokin' dope and it all came together nicely. I could finally see clearly. When I got into my 80s I got married and lost all my dough again. When I got into my 90s I learned to read. Ever since then, I've been doin' real good.

    But seriously, it takes time, but if you can get a handle on the relationships it really does make a lot of sense. Like what happens to the stock markets when the yields on treasuries becomes attractive, etc. Things like that will clear a lot of the smoke out of the way. Just my humble opinion.
    2009 Nov 04 02:05 PM Reply
  •  
    Cap-n-trade is still breathing. FNC just reported that Team Obama has closed the Yucca MTN nuclear waste terminal. This after previous administrations have taxed us to the tune of $13M over the last thirty years building it. This is designed to shut down the nuclear power industry by preventing them from having permanent storage for nuclear waste. Does team Obama have an alternative storage facility? No. However President Obama said he will appoint a commission to study the problem. Didn't some blue ribbon panel suggest Yucca in the first place all those years ago?
    2009 Nov 04 02:11 PM Reply
  •  
    On Nov 04 01:58 PM doubleguns wrote:

    > Rocks does your realestate index include farm land?<

    No, it's mainly based on residential and commercial space. The underlying indices are $DJUSRE and $RMZ
    2009 Nov 04 02:16 PM Reply
  •  
    Robert.. I suggest we store it in the white house and capital building until a suitable location is found.
    2009 Nov 04 05:56 PM Reply
  •  
    Wow Guns you've got it. I'm sure all of it would fit in Barney Franks' head. That might even keep him from uttering inane comments for awhile.
    2009 Nov 04 06:35 PM Reply
  •  
    The New York Yankees won the World Series, Since 1936, every Yankees Series win has been followed By a 10% or more SPX gain.

    "Every", its been a 100% reliable indicator for over 70 years.
    2009 Nov 05 06:01 AM Reply
  •  
    Freya doesn't have a "space", Freya does have a list of People she follows.
    She will go where they go.

    Freya doesn't like it when people lie about what she has said.
    2009 Nov 05 07:56 AM Reply
  •  
    What a difference a few days make! Today I read that the vote for health care may take place this weekend. I hope it gets kicked to the curb, where it belongs.
    2009 Nov 06 09:09 PM Reply
  •  
    Princess Pelosi is working over time twisting arms. As I understand it the president will be on the hill tomorrow attempting to bribe wavering Democrats as is customary back in Chitown.
    2009 Nov 06 11:01 PM Reply
  •  
    This will be the key. Fear-of-the-voter has been instilled in many Democrats, particularly those up for election in a conservative or moderate district next November...

    Now we watch a classic passion spiele, between greed for the goodies that Reid, Pelossi and Obama can dispense (which are currently real and virtually limitless given the awesome pile of treasure they have accumulated through trillion dollar deficits) - and the dawning concept that the voters are not as ignorant as they were a year ago.

    I believe that the Pelossi/Reid/Waxman/Obama regime will triumph. Then we will see the CHANGE they have so long promised, in full flower.

    I HOPE I am wrong...

    But, full disclosure, that's why I am over 95% in cash right now.


    On Nov 06 11:01 PM robert.b.ferguson wrote:

    > Princess Pelosi is working over time twisting arms. As I understand
    > it the president will be on the hill tomorrow attempting to bribe
    > wavering Democrats as is customary back in Chitown.
    2009 Nov 07 08:00 AM Reply
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