So most risk assets are apparently priced by investors off the US Treasury curve or the S&P at a minimum.
If the weight of economic mass and the bulk of the growth shift to EM over the next few years then presumably so might asset price benchmarks? Equally the long US-bond at 2-4% offers no real embedded ‘US sovereign spread’ risk for either inflation, currency debasement or default risk, and as such this ‘risk-free’ rate understates the possible risks in owning it and related assets. I think Ashmore characterise developed markets as markets where systemic risk is not priced in.
Secondly the TIC data shows private investors selling down US assets meaning the only real support is coming from official reserves which are being accrued via EM currency suppression and petro-dollar related sovereign earnings. A rise in EM FX might at some point mean EM CB’s accrue less Dollars and therefore there is even less support for Treasuries.
Thirdly US private sector deleveraging has been around $200bn in the last two years, yet the US budget deficit has been around $2Tn (not including the trillions in guarantees and Fed activities). So despite the economy contracting it looks like it has been taking over $10 of debt ‘nationalization’ to offset $1 of private sector deleveraging. When you hear all the Keynsians saying they ‘havent done enough’ I would have thought the writing is on the wall for the US bond market.