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9 Takeaways from Nouriel Roubini

Nouriel Roubini is a professor of economics at the Stern School of Business at NYU and the chairman of Roubini Global Economics. Mr. Roubini received a doctorate in international economics at Harvard University. In 2005 he was quoted as saying "home prices are riding a speculative wave that would soon sink the economy". Many ignored him back then, today he is a sage. The below are 9 takeaways from his recent article from Forbes,(Stop Asking When The Recession Will End):

  • Positive GDP growth may become evident in the second half of '09
  • Recovery will be closer to U shaped than V or W
  • Policy measures such as cash for clunkers will raise real GDP growth in the third quarter of '09, this is a temporary boost to growth
  • Inventory adjustments and stimulus impact will be over by mid 2010, this may cause a double dip recession.
  • Sustained economic recovery must come from private demand
  • This is the most severe recession since the 1930's
  • New sources of growth must emerge, until then growth will be below potential for many years
  • Productivity has been a leader due to labor cuts and increase labor hours not innovation or productivity investments as it should
  • Productivity growth will remain under pressure for the foreseeable future