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  • 9 Takeaways from Nouriel Roubini 2 comments
    Aug 20, 2009 8:59 AM

    Nouriel Roubini is a professor of economics at the Stern School of Business at NYU and the chairman of Roubini Global Economics. Mr. Roubini received a doctorate in international economics at Harvard University. In 2005 he was quoted as saying "home prices are riding a speculative wave that would soon sink the economy". Many ignored him back then, today he is a sage. The below are 9 takeaways from his recent article from Forbes,(Stop Asking When The Recession Will End):

    • Positive GDP growth may become evident in the second half of '09
    • Recovery will be closer to U shaped than V or W
    • Policy measures such as cash for clunkers will raise real GDP growth in the third quarter of '09, this is a temporary boost to growth
    • Inventory adjustments and stimulus impact will be over by mid 2010, this may cause a double dip recession.
    • Sustained economic recovery must come from private demand
    • This is the most severe recession since the 1930's
    • New sources of growth must emerge, until then growth will be below potential for many years
    • Productivity has been a leader due to labor cuts and increase labor hours not innovation or productivity investments as it should
    • Productivity growth will remain under pressure for the foreseeable future


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  • Tom Au, CFA
    , contributor
    Comments (6879) | Send Message
    And if we're not careful, this could be the most severe "recession" INCLUDING the 1930s.
    20 Aug 2009, 10:32 AM Reply Like
    , contributor
    Comments (47) | Send Message
    Author’s reply » We have seen the first leg down in the market, defaults will rise in the near future. I was speaking to a fellow lawyer who specializes in bankruptcys and he has seen an increase over the past 6 months filing. At first it was those who couldnt afford their mortgage period, the last few months, filings have increased and it has come from people losing their jobs. This is just starting to hit the economy.


    20 Aug 2009, 01:14 PM Reply Like
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