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EUR/USD Commentary and Analysis

|Includes:CurrencyShares Australian Dollar Trust ETF (FXA), FXB, FXC, FXE, FXF, FXY, UDN

After teasing the bulls all week, the euro made a move to the upside late Thursday afternoon.  It easy to surmise that this move was made on light volume but that does not seem to be the case.  Open interest in the futures at the CME was up a hefty 8844 contracts, so we have an ample supply of new buyers and sellers.  Yesterday's upside spurt poked through  a minor trend line, and at 1.4355 we are now parked on it.  Trend lines are often meaningless.  Last Friday the market firmed late to close on the cusp of the season highs above 1.44, but then backed and filled this week.

The weekly euro chart continues it's gradual upward climb.  Some analyst maintain that the euro has a chance of moving to the 1.48 handle over time. Fundamental economic numbers have shown practically nothing to separate the progress of the two economies.  The H4 chart shows the pair has recovered from the modest sell off down to the 1.4200 handle.

Sometimes Fridays thin trade can give you opportunities if you have a plan.  This pair acts like it wants to work higher, so if they run a sale today, try to buy the euro on a pull back under 1.4300.