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EUR/USD Commentary and Analysis

|Includes:CurrencyShares Canadian Dollar Trust ETF (FXC), FXE, FXF, FXY, UDN

This mornings unemployment report acted like a giant spoon stiring the financial pot and sending the weak kneed and financially underfunded to the sidelines.  The increase in the unemployment rate to 9.7%, the highest in 26 years, is good for headlines, but not a surprise.  More unemployed were found in the previous months stats, which means the 9.4% rate is understated.  So why is a record high unemployment rate friendly to the dollar?

It is easy to read too much into market action, especially on a semi holiday Friday.  Some attribute the dollar's relative strength to the ECB President Trichet's lack of optimism regarding Euroland's recovery.  Will the lack of aggressive stimulants to the European economies handicap their road to recovery?  Fear of a weak and tardy economic recovery, combined with a strong currency hampering the the resurgence of growth in Southern Europe may be tarnishing the euro's luster.

Yesterday we mentioned this pair is coiling into a triangular pattern, preparing for a breakout.

The trade remains confined within the evolving triangle awaiting events that may alter the pattern next week. Since I commenced writing these comments, it looks like others have questioned what was bullish the dollar in the reports and we have been screaming to the upside  We have come back from the early down under 1.42 to over 1.43.  Putting positions on after one of these crazy reports makes a lot more sense than lugging one into the report.  For the last two weeks they have closed to Euro well, only to see the market fail.  Will this happen again?