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I am an MD by background who runs a healthcare hedge fund. I worked as a sell-side medical analyst for 20 years, covering pharmaceuticals, medical devices, PBMs and drug distributors.
  • Gilead's Sofosbuvir Recommended For Approval 0 comments
    Oct 28, 2013 2:32 PM | about stocks: GILD

    With the FDA advisory committee recommendation of Gilead's sofosbuvir, I would like to reiterate my reasons as to why I believe revenues in 2014 will be significantly greater than consensus forecast. First, testing is recommended for those born between 1945-1965. This cohort represents the majority of Hepatitis C infections in the US, yet most people with HCV are unaware they are infected. Therefore, this will serve to increase the number of treatable patients. Second, awareness is high of the upcoming availability of all-oral therapeutic regimens prescribed for a shorter duration and with fewer side effects and greater efficacy. Therefore, many patients have been warehoused, awaiting therapy, as in most instances, Hepatitis C does not require immediate treatment. Third, newly diagnosed patients will be more willing to undergo treatment, given the aforementioned advantages versus current pharmacotherapy. Fourth, patients who have failed prior therapy may be eligible for the new regimen. Fifth, patients with Hepatitis C have historically been treated by gastroenterologists and hepatologists. Given the shorter duration, all-oral, fewer side effect regimens coming to market, other physician specialties, including infectious disease and internal medicine, will become involved. Therefore, more patients will be treatable (because of the shorter course of therapy, less intensive monitoring, and greater number of doctors). Finally, because Hepatitis C infection can lead to cirrhosis or hepatocellular carcinoma, I expect insurance coverage for the drugs to become readily available. It is estimated that 20% of infected individuals will progress to cirrhosis 20 years after infection.

    Disclosure: I am long GILD.

    Stocks: GILD
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