Neil Feinberg's  Instablog

Neil Feinberg
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Established Hedge Fund with a 10+ year track record, specializing in the intermediate term/swing trading of highly correlated US equities Funds seeks to profit from inefficiencies from macro environment, using mean reversion and fundamental analysis as the main tenets to the strategy
  • GNI Follow-UP $5.75 Dividend will be the Top 0 comments
    Dec 18, 2011 10:06 PM | about stocks: GNI
    Per the distribution release

    "we anticipate that 2012 wlll be another good year for the Trust, though it is not

    expected to reach the historical record earnings achieved in 2011" .

    Total Dividends were $15 in 2011. If you assume the economy slows a bit - and apply a 20% haircut to 2012  - you get total dividends of $12 -  or $3 per share on average in 2012 -  about half of this latest record dividend

    See the VALE news last week about cutting ore prices and throw in a typical Minnesota blizzard to freeze up the shipping channels

    and we are back to $2 per share dividend in Q1. 

    even though the cost to short might be 20% or more- it the stock pops at all on the lastest dividend annoucement - it will be worth shorting  - as the stock typically trades off much greater than the dividend on the ex date
    Stocks: GNI
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