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Justin M. Hall
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In transition, I plan to update my Bio in the near future. -- Justin
  • Update: 10.9.09 46 comments
    Oct 9, 2009 3:33 PM | about stocks: SPPI
    PRELIMINARY FACTS

    Friday morning Spectrum Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ:SPPI) announced the receipt of a complete response letter (NYSE:CRL) for the company’s supplemental new drug application (sNDA) for Fusilev® in combination with 5-FU for the treatment of colorectal cancer.


    Complete Response Letter
    • According to the company’s press release, the FDA indicated the application failed to demonstrate that Fusilev was NOT INFERIOR to [generic] leucovorin.
    • The FDA also recommended SPPI schedule some time to meet with regulators to chat about some other options that may allow the drug to be approved.
       
    • ODDLY, "the FDA did NOT request any changes to the currently approved indications and package insert," according to the release. 

    WORK IN PROGRESS

    I must admit that today's Fusilev decision has stumped me.  I will continue to work to get some clarity on the issue.

    I still like SPPI long-term.  As I said, Q3-Q4 EPS will be the real test for this company.  If SPPI can demonstrate that they can effectively market Zevalin, then shares will advance much higher from here. 

    Despite the over-reactive and senseless pessimism, I remain optimistic about SPPI over the next 12 months.  I have not sold anything and will remain invested in the company through Q4 EPS in February 2010. 

    For more info about the company going forward, take a minute to review my previous post from last Friday, October 2, 2009.  Next stop, Q3 earnings which will likely be scheduled for November 9 or 16 according to Paul Arndt, IR SPPI.

    At $5.09, SPPI is now trading at 1.59 X its cash value.  From here, risk remains to the upside over the long-term.

    A loss is never a loss until it is realized.  I have repeatedly and purposely stated that investors should hedge ALL of their long positions with put options.  If you did not catch it, sold and realized a loss, that's your problem.  I have also said - more times than I care to count - that SPPI is a long-term position.  I have reasons for saying the things I say.  So, wise up. 

    I'm baffled by today's decision.  It is disappointing, but I do not believe that it is time to throw in the towel.  With SPPI, I'm NOT a trader.  Investing in this environment often takes time for this very reason - the regulatory risk is out of control.  

    It took less than 32,000, shares to bring SPPI down this morning in pre-market trading.  Most of the action today was NOT selling.

    Unfortunately, Fusilev fell into the 15%.  Was it foreseeable based on the underlying circumstances?  Right now, I cannot find one plausible explanation for the FDA's decision.  I also cannot determine what exactly might be required of the company going forward.  The drug is already approved and was previously recommended by the ODAC panel.  It was also approved for use as an alternative to generic leucovorin during the shortage of 2008.  The likelihood of this drug not getting approved was very low in my view.

    THOUGHTS
    • Fusilev is not a "me too" drug.  It is a pure form of leucovorin.  The benefits are less biovariability or less toxicity compared to the generic form. 

    • While the FDA held, Fusilev is non-inferior to the generic version, it makes one wonder whether or not the agency cares about the quality of care for patients.  While Fusilev may cost more and it has been shown for over 10 years to provide colorectal cancer patients with the benefit of less side-effects (toxicity).  I thought the newly appointed FDA head was going to do what was best for patients.  If so, then she is doing a very poor job here.

       
    • Prior to approval, Fusilev was recommended for approval by the ODAC panel in either 2006 or 2007.

    • Fusilev was approved for osteosarcoma in 2008

    • CMS approved Fusilev as a viable alternative (reimbursed) during 2008 shortage.

    Suddenly, the FDA has just discovered that Fusilev, a previously approved drug that benefits patients over the existing generic treatment, is now Non-Inferior to the generic treatment.  Huh?

    WHERE DO WE GO NEXT?  
    Here, I am totally stumped.  The worst case is a trial, but to me that is highly unlikely.  I suppose that if SPPI is able to make the case for Fusilev during their meeting with the FDA, the company will be required to resubmit their application with additional data collected by WYE in the EU.  If so, then the resubmission would likely take the agency another 6 months to review following the date of the resubmission. 

    This is the beauty of red tape and trying to conduct business in the US.  It is all very mind-numbing and very much part of the game. 

    If you do not like the game, then you should consider getting out.  It's likely not for you.  Contact a financial advisor and pay them to help you. 

    If you find yourself reacting to today's action with intense emotion, then you have a problem.  I encourage you to either work on it or get out now and save yourself the pain and agony.


    Disclosure: Long SPPI.
    Stocks: SPPI
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Comments (46)
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  • Super Piker
    , contributor
    Comments (10) | Send Message
     
    SPPI destroyed my portfolio.
    9 Oct 2009, 03:44 PM Reply Like
  • Scott Murray
    , contributor
    Comments (107) | Send Message
     
    Well, considering I plan on holding long, I bought what now amounts to 1/3 of my position today at $5.02. Why? Unless I am incorrect, the market cap is 210 mm, and they have 150mm in cash and a recently approved cancer drug. Today's dip is proof of the fickle speculative pharma trading crowd-over exuberant to the upside and downside. this is a buy here if you have a shred of patience.
    9 Oct 2009, 03:44 PM Reply Like
  • Biotech_fda
    , contributor
    Comments (3) | Send Message
     
    Thanks alot mr. Hall
    9 Oct 2009, 04:04 PM Reply Like
  • Respirate
    , contributor
    Comments (155) | Send Message
     
    "SPPI destroyed my portfolio." --

     

    SuperPiker, why did you post this sad little blurb with no explanation?
    If your portfolio is so weak that it is destroyed by a single speculative stock falling 18%, you shouldn't be investing in stocks ... or anything else for that matter. Invest in S&P proxy ETFs or US Savings Bonds until you learn that equity markets are not a safe place to play. You have to know what you're doing. Grow up.
    9 Oct 2009, 04:18 PM Reply Like
  • BSbuster
    , contributor
    Comments (23) | Send Message
     
    What is it that's lacking clarity exactly?

     

    "did not demonstrate that FUSILEV is non-inferior to leucovorin"

     

    Seems pretty clear to me.
    9 Oct 2009, 04:38 PM Reply Like
  • castle
    , contributor
    Comments (100) | Send Message
     
    I am not sure how you describe "senseless pessimism" but please give me the opportunity to describe senseless optimism. Results of senseless optimism---destruction of many readers portfolio and financial wealth. Symptoms--constantly stating the fundamentals were strong with wildly exaggerated sales figures for two drugs not even approved. If my memory serves me projected stock price was $30.00. Then after Zevalins approval and the massive saleoff, senseless optimism tells people to buy the dips at 8.00 and 7.00 and then lower our predicted sales price to $21.00. Next lets shoot down the only trader who is all but shouting "don't buy!! Don't buy!! Lets wait and see, red flags are flying. Now we have Mr Scott telling you to buy at $5.00. Hell even I am going to be telling you people to buy at $4.15. Sooner or later the stock price is going to be so low that your advice is going to be correct and then wow aren't you guys the hero. However in the mean time there will be a lot of nameless investors out there with destroyed portfolios following the advice of the ridiculously senseless optimist.
    9 Oct 2009, 04:39 PM Reply Like
  • T.S.Patel
    , contributor
    Comments (3) | Send Message
     
    Any idea as to how low SPPI can go ? I have 10K @ 8.28 and am looking to average down. Is this right entry point to do so? Or a down day in market can pull this one down to @ $ 4.00 or so. i do not feel there is anything wrong with the company and all this negative environment shall pass in time, after all cash position + 1 approval is enough to shhot this one above $ 9.00 or so.
    9 Oct 2009, 04:42 PM Reply Like
  • castle
    , contributor
    Comments (100) | Send Message
     
    PS. and just because some of us more experienced traders were able to walk around this mine field optimism doesn't give us the right to tell the less fortunate to "grow up"
    9 Oct 2009, 04:48 PM Reply Like
  • Scott Murray
    , contributor
    Comments (107) | Send Message
     
    Castle,

     

    I don't know what you mean by "destroyed portfolios". This is the kind of hyperbole that I thought you were railing against. Any reasonable investor takes a small position with SPPI, in concert with a basket of other strategies/positions.
    9 Oct 2009, 04:56 PM Reply Like
  • castle
    , contributor
    Comments (100) | Send Message
     
    OK good now you are thinking, how do I get out of this mess. You are going to have to average down but not yet. You need to see a change in trend before. Never catch a falling knife, let it stick in the ground first. Look for an up day with volume before you consider averaging down. You can recover much of your loss or even make money if you will trade smart from here. Wait for consolidation and the start to move up, then you trade. Sometime we can all tell our horror stories on this blog, I traded my way out of mine, you can to

     

    On Oct 09 04:42 PM T.S.Patel wrote:

     

    > Any idea as to how low SPPI can go ? I have 10K @ 8.28 and am looking
    > to average down. Is this right entry point to do so? Or a down day
    > in market can pull this one down to @ $ 4.00 or so. i do not feel
    > there is anything wrong with the company and all this negative environment
    > shall pass in time, after all cash position + 1 approval is enough
    > to shhot this one above $ 9.00 or so.
    9 Oct 2009, 05:07 PM Reply Like
  • T.S.Patel
    , contributor
    Comments (3) | Send Message
     
    Thank You Castle

     

    On Oct 09 05:07 PM castle wrote:

     

    > OK good now you are thinking, how do I get out of this mess. You
    > are going to have to average down but not yet. You need to see a
    > change in trend before. Never catch a falling knife, let it stick
    > in the ground first. Look for an up day with volume before you consider
    > averaging down. You can recover much of your loss or even make money
    > if you will trade smart from here. Wait for consolidation and the
    > start to move up, then you trade. Sometime we can all tell our horror
    > stories on this blog, I traded my way out of mine, you can to
    9 Oct 2009, 05:15 PM Reply Like
  • saltydog
    , contributor
    Comments (452) | Send Message
     
    i might be mistaken,but if this stock was going to TANK, you would think today was the time for it. i have arca biopharma that did not get fda aproval and lost two thirds of its value so fast,my laptop almost caught fire.
    i am sticking with sppi...
    9 Oct 2009, 05:17 PM Reply Like
  • arizona90
    , contributor
    Comments (6) | Send Message
     
    I think too much is being made of the cash SPPI has on hand - that cash is going to shrink every quarter, for the forseeable future, because SPPI is bleeding cash.

     

    This won't get better unless Zevalin (and other product) sales pick up dramatically. That probably won't happen without a larger partner helping with sales.

     

    This is why Fusilev approval was so critical. SPPI needs additional streams of revenue. Btw, Fusilev will take quarters to ramp.

     

    So, don't be overly comforted by the cash on hand today. It is going to be significantly lower every quarter.
    9 Oct 2009, 05:31 PM Reply Like
  • Scott Murray
    , contributor
    Comments (107) | Send Message
     
    Hey Salty,

     

    I can relate. I took a ride down with SPNG"E" that gave me windburn. Now it's in SEC purgatory, which means that when they are let it out next week, it will accelerate to the bottom like the guy with a cement block tied to his leg after he swindled Vinny.

     

    On Oct 09 05:17 PM saltydog wrote:

     

    > i might be mistaken,but if this stock was going to TANK, you would
    > think today was the time for it. i have arca biopharma that did not
    > get fda aproval and lost two thirds of its value so fast,my laptop
    > almost caught fire.
    > i am sticking with sppi...
    9 Oct 2009, 05:38 PM Reply Like
  • arizona90
    , contributor
    Comments (6) | Send Message
     
    "Despite the over-reactive and senseless pessimism, I remain optimistic about SPPI over the next 12 months. "

     

    Justin,
    Would be curious to understand why you think the there is an pessimistic, over-reaction on SPPI today? Over 11M shares traded, vs a normal daily avg of 2.4M. These are not just retail traders, but institutions dumping.

     

    You cite the large cash position as a reason for holding. SPPI is buring through cash rapidly. The cash position will shrink each quarter.

     

    I guess the analyst firm that downgraded SPPI last Friday knew what they were talking about. I seem to recall a post from you flaming the analyst and calling for his dismissal. You've since removed that inappropriate post.

     

    Finally, you seem to be surprised at people's reactions today. You publish a blog, have been pumping SPPI for some time, and said that there was a "greater than 85% chance" Fusilev would be approved by the FDA. Of course, people are going to call you out for this bogus prediction. Grow up, and admit you were wrong. People will respect you a lot more for acknowledging a mistake, instead of getting defensive.

     

    Best of luck in your position in SPPI. I sold today, and will wait for another upward catylyst, before buying again.
    9 Oct 2009, 05:49 PM Reply Like
  • nvs99
    , contributor
    Comments (5) | Send Message
     
    The non-approval of Fusilev indeed took many by surprise. It was not just Justin, but many readers on SA as well as other finance sites were confident that the drug would be approved. Given such optimism, in hindsight, selling SPPI prior to the FDA decision would have been a wise move. Approval was already factored into the price - so when it didn't happen, the stock tanked. We will never know, but my guess is that, had the FDA approved the drug, the stock would have stayed pretty much flat and wouldn't have gone up much higher.

     

    IMO, the stock will stay at this levels until (a) a takeover or a takeover rumor emerges (b) any information that indicates the success/failure of Zevalin becomes available.
    9 Oct 2009, 06:42 PM Reply Like
  • Josh Rachlis
    , contributor
    Comments (6) | Send Message
     
    I like what Arizona90 is saying. Myself, I put all my money into this. Everything I'd been saving for 10 years. And not just in the stock, in stock options. Sure, it was a bit of a gamble. But who among us wouldn't bet big on a lottery ticket that had an 85% chance of forever changing their life for the better? It's just a reminder, and I hope you take it to heart, that when you write your articles and post them in a forum where people see you as wise and knowledgeable, you're affecting people's lives. So you might want to temper your articles with a bit of reality and offer all sides of the story. My life is ruined. Hopefully others will be spared this fate in the future.
    9 Oct 2009, 07:06 PM Reply Like
  • Respirate
    , contributor
    Comments (155) | Send Message
     
    I apologize to all for my previous harsh comment. In making it I assumed that other SA readers would realize that Spectrum Pharma is speculative and volatile. As such it should only represent a small position in a well established portfolio anchored by the likes of Proctor & Gamble, J&J, and ExxonMobil -- only my opinion.

     

    The author Mr Hall would do a service to novice investors by including such advice when discussing stocks like SPPI.

     

    Long SPPI & still holding a modest position.
    9 Oct 2009, 07:34 PM Reply Like
  • Josh Rachlis
    , contributor
    Comments (6) | Send Message
     
    Thanks, Respirate. That's a very good suggestion for Justin.
    9 Oct 2009, 09:56 PM Reply Like
  • war2
    , contributor
    Comments (2) | Send Message
     
    Can someone explain to me why SPPI would want to show that our drug is inferior to the other drug it is being compared to?
    9 Oct 2009, 10:45 PM Reply Like
  • RoyN
    , contributor
    Comments (6) | Send Message
     
    Josh,

     

    I think you just have an axe to grind with Justin and making crap up. But if you are telling the truth you deserve to have lost your money. Putting all your savings into one stock is sheer lunacy.
    9 Oct 2009, 11:33 PM Reply Like
  • philerup
    , contributor
    Comments (4) | Send Message
     
    Justin Hall is not to blame for this failure of SPPI to get approval and he did mention hedging your trades, so props to him for that. However, he comes off as extremely defensive and frankly, immature, because of this latest instablog. Time to move on and follow others with a better professional perspective.
    10 Oct 2009, 01:04 AM Reply Like
  • Cynicoren
    , contributor
    Comments (21) | Send Message
     
    Just remember that SPPI just got 50$ from institutions, so there must be something wrong with their wits - (If they are selling. That's why they call it "FDA trial date" and not "FDA approval date").
    Regarding Justin's pumping - well, I guess he was optimistic. 300M$ sales on year one after approval is one definition of optimism.
    But, on the other hand, he might be right. 85% approval means that there a 15% that it won't be approved (not to mention that Fusilev wasn't totally rejected. Moreover, the FDA has reversed a few decisions lately) . If you are stock investor, especially Bio stock investors, you know there's no money on the floor. There's no guaranty for anything, unless a guys named Madoff is involved...

     

    On Oct 09 05:49 PM arizona90 wrote:

     

    > "Despite the over-reactive and senseless pessimism, I remain optimistic
    > about SPPI over the next 12 months. "
    >
    > Justin,
    > Would be curious to understand why you think the there is an pessimistic,
    > over-reaction on SPPI today? Over 11M shares traded, vs a normal
    > daily avg of 2.4M. These are not just retail traders, but institutions
    > dumping.
    >
    > You cite the large cash position as a reason for holding. SPPI is
    > buring through cash rapidly. The cash position will shrink each
    > quarter.
    >
    > I guess the analyst firm that downgraded SPPI last Friday knew what
    > they were talking about. I seem to recall a post from you flaming
    > the analyst and calling for his dismissal. You've since removed
    > that inappropriate post.
    >
    > Finally, you seem to be surprised at people's reactions today. You
    > publish a blog, have been pumping SPPI for some time, and said that
    > there was a "greater than 85% chance" Fusilev would be approved by
    > the FDA. Of course, people are going to call you out for this bogus
    > prediction. Grow up, and admit you were wrong. People will respect
    > you a lot more for acknowledging a mistake, instead of getting defensive.
    >
    >
    > Best of luck in your position in SPPI. I sold today, and will wait
    > for another upward catylyst, before buying again.
    10 Oct 2009, 04:07 AM Reply Like
  • CR77
    , contributor
    Comments (2) | Send Message
     
    Hi justin: I Know most of us feel the darkest times are here to stay. The botton line is when you are long, stocks go up and down all the time specially very small caps. Being able to time trades is something that very few can do. I understand why you are taking the heat for SPPI's fall. That is what happens when you are a public figure with opinions and predictions. You are not forcing anybody into buying a specific stock. All of us have to do our own research before investing our money. If SPPI were $12.00 today you would have been the greatest .. So hold tight and keep posting all your comments that we appreciate. Now regarding SPPI I want to know more facts about the sell off yesterday. Apparently the stock was already down more than 15% in premarket trading and a small company like SPPI will drop with "few"shares and induce panic selling when the market opens. More than 11 million shares were traded on friday! Did Goldman Sachs and the investors who bought $ 50 million a couple of weeks ago, participated in this selling? SPPI fundamentals apparently look solid long term but we need to rule out hidden facts that only insiders and large institutions are always aware before they become public. If you can find out for us or guide us where to get more information, will be very helpful for all of us who are longs. RIMM went down 20% a week ago but for long term holders is just a bump in the road. I just want to have the same piece of mind knowing more facts about the sell off. Thank you Justin.
    CR77
    10 Oct 2009, 11:51 AM Reply Like
  • David White
    , contributor
    Comments (4053) | Send Message
     
    One of the priamry tenets of economics is that you always are where you are, not where you were a week or a month or a year ago or where you hope to be. This means that you do have a loss, whether you have realized it or not. The only question then is, would you want to invest in the stock you own at the price it is now, or would you prefer to invest that money in something else (or keep it in cash)?
    10 Oct 2009, 01:49 PM Reply Like
  • Justin M. Hall
    , contributor
    Comments (753) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Buying and selling is up to you. I remain optimistic about SPPI going forward. I do not view that the sky is falling nor do I believe the game is over.

     

    SPPI experienced a similar set back on July 2. I do expect Fusilev will eventually be approved for use in colorectal cancer.

     

    My primary reason for liking SPPI is Zevalin not Fusilev. Hence the reason I elected to write about the company. I rarely placed much emphasis on the Fusilev. That said, I firmly believed it would be approved. In my opinion, it should have been.

     

    Despite the setback, I do believe Fusilev will be approved eventually. Historically, ONLY 5% of all drugs reviewed by the FDA are NEVER approved.

     

    Keep in mind that investing takes time. Things never run in a straight line especially where the government is involved.

     

    As I have consistently held, I am [still] optimistic about SPPI over the next 12 months. Even though the company - like all drug makers - experienced yet another regulatory setback (just as it did in July), I believe shares will [eventually] move higher from here. For these reasons, I will continue to invest in SPPI.

     

    Out of all the email I received over the past two days, one person seemed concerned. So, I do not think most investors share the sentiment of the unknown, new sources posted here. While I know some of you, I do not know others. And so, I'm suspect of those, who are now suddenly making your first comments here under my blog. Sorry - the internet is packed with liars who aim to deceive others. Nevertheless, I do NOT buy into the negative - sky is falling - views held here about SPPI.

     

    Here's an excerpt of an email I sent to a friend yesterday who is also invested in the company:

     

    "The company is trading at 1.59 X its cash value which is very cheap under the circumstances. The company is expected to generate about $50 million in revenue this year. I believe it is still possible that revenue could exceed $50 million. As I recall, the company has already generated about $20 million+ from Q1 & Q2.

     

    -- 1.59 X cash
    -- 5 X 2009 revenue estimates
    -- $0 debt
    -- Low cash burn rate

     

    While it may take some time to correct, to me this is a no-brainer. SPPI will eventually turn up. I think it could close above $10 this year IF and only if Q3 Zevalin sales continue to trend up. I think they will.

     

    I'm looking for $6 million+ Zevalin sales coupled with upward guidance on Q4 sales; $2 to $3 million+ in Fusilev sales; and $2 million from Eoquin collaboration. With a total of $10 million in revenue, positive earnings (hopefully) and a positive guidance, we could see $10 again sooner than later."

     

    --- END ---

     

    My sentiment has not changed, I remain optimistic about SPPI going forward. Sell now if you want, that's your call. If you do elect to sell, I believe you will end up regretting that decision later on.

     

    I do hope you all really try to enjoy the remainder of your weekend with your families!

     

    Justin
    10 Oct 2009, 09:04 PM Reply Like
  • Justin M. Hall
    , contributor
    Comments (753) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Thank you David!

     

    You comment is dead on. I could have done a better job trying to make my point. Thank you.

     

    Justin

     

    On Oct 10 01:49 PM David White wrote:

     

    One of the priamry tenets of economics is that you always are where you are, not where you were a week or a month or a year ago or where you hope to be. This means that you do have a loss, whether you have realized it or not. The only question then is, would you want to invest in the stock you own at the price it is now, or would you prefer to invest that money in something else (or keep it in cash)?
    10 Oct 2009, 09:10 PM Reply Like
  • weisam
    , contributor
    Comment (1) | Send Message
     
    Justin,
    Thank you for all your analysis about SPPI. You have done a wonderful job. Even though your prediction was incorrect about Fusilev, your reasoning was accurate and reasonable. Thanks for your service.

     

    However, I do have some questions and hope you could help me.

     

    Reading on NIH website about Noninferiority trials--"Noninferiority trials are intended to show that the effect of a new treatment is not worse than that of an active control by more than a specified margin."--I was wondering if SPPI submitted any data comparing Fusilev with the generic in terms of their effect or response. Reading the CRL, it seems FDA had the data on reduction in toxicity but either 1). they did not see the data on treatment results comparing Fusilev with the generics or 2). they saw the results from Fusilev were not as good as the generic.

     

    1) is easy to fix; 2) may be problematic. Can you find out for me?

     

    Sam

     

    On Oct 10 09:04 PM Justin M. Hall wrote:

     

    > Buying and selling is up to you. I remain optimistic about SPPI going
    > forward. I do not view that the sky is falling nor do I believe the
    > game is over.
    >
    > SPPI experienced a similar set back on July 2. I do expect Fusilev
    > will eventually be approved for use in colorectal cancer.
    >
    > My primary reason for liking SPPI is Zevalin not Fusilev. Hence the
    > reason I elected to write about the company. I rarely placed much
    > emphasis on the Fusilev. That said, I firmly believed it would be
    > approved. In my opinion, it should have been.
    >
    > Despite the setback, I do believe Fusilev will be approved eventually.
    > Historically, ONLY 5% of all drugs reviewed by the FDA are NEVER
    > approved.
    >
    > Keep in mind that investing takes time. Things never run in a straight
    > line especially where the government is involved.
    >
    > As I have consistently held, I am [still] optimistic about SPPI over
    > the next 12 months. Even though the company - like all drug makers
    > - experienced yet another regulatory setback (just as it did in July),
    > I believe shares will [eventually] move higher from here. For these
    > reasons, I will continue to invest in SPPI.
    >
    > Out of all the email I received over the past two days, one person
    > seemed concerned. So, I do not think most investors share the sentiment
    > of the unknown, new sources posted here. While I know some of you,
    > I do not know others. And so, I'm suspect of those, who are now suddenly
    > making your first comments here under my blog. Sorry - the internet
    > is packed with liars who aim to deceive others. Nevertheless, I do
    > NOT buy into the negative - sky is falling - views held here about
    > SPPI.
    >
    >
    > Here's an excerpt of an email I sent to a friend yesterday who is
    > also invested in the company:
    >
    > "The company is trading at 1.59 X its cash value which is very cheap
    > under the circumstances. The company is expected to generate about
    > $50 million in revenue this year. I believe it is still possible
    > that revenue could exceed $50 million. As I recall, the company has
    > already generated about $20 million+ from Q1 & Q2.
    >
    > -- 1.59 X cash
    > -- 5 X 2009 revenue estimates
    > -- $0 debt
    > -- Low cash burn rate
    >
    > While it may take some time to correct, to me this is a no-brainer.
    > SPPI will eventually turn up. I think it could close above $10 this
    > year IF and only if Q3 Zevalin sales continue to trend up. I think
    > they will.
    >
    > I'm looking for $6 million+ Zevalin sales coupled with upward guidance
    > on Q4 sales; $2 to $3 million+ in Fusilev sales; and $2 million from
    > Eoquin collaboration. With a total of $10 million in revenue, positive
    > earnings (hopefully) and a positive guidance, we could see $10 again
    > sooner than later."
    >
    > --- END ---
    >
    > My sentiment has not changed, I remain optimistic about SPPI going
    > forward. Sell now if you want, that's your call. If you do elect
    > to sell, I believe you will end up regretting that decision later
    > on.
    >
    > I do hope you all really try to enjoy the remainder of your weekend
    > with your families!
    >
    > Justin
    10 Oct 2009, 11:50 PM Reply Like
  • Jocular
    , contributor
    Comments (12) | Send Message
     
    c'mon - putting everything into this stock - and not just the common but call options - is very risky. i'm not against risk but this is beyond betting the farm. i don't always agree with justin, in fact i often don't, but he never suggested taking this type of position. i never invested in zevalin because i knew that there was resistance to prescribing it because you need to involve a radiologist. with friday's fall, i have now taken a substantial position because i view this as an overreaction.

     

    On Oct 09 07:06 PM Josh Rachlis wrote:

     

    > I like what Arizona90 is saying. Myself, I put all my money into
    > this. Everything I'd been saving for 10 years. And not just in the
    > stock, in stock options. Sure, it was a bit of a gamble. But who
    > among us wouldn't bet big on a lottery ticket that had an 85% chance
    > of forever changing their life for the better? It's just a reminder,
    > and I hope you take it to heart, that when you write your articles
    > and post them in a forum where people see you as wise and knowledgeable,
    > you're affecting people's lives. So you might want to temper your
    > articles with a bit of reality and offer all sides of the story.
    > My life is ruined. Hopefully others will be spared this fate in the
    > future.
    11 Oct 2009, 11:54 AM Reply Like
  • castle
    , contributor
    Comments (100) | Send Message
     
    Opening bell the stock price is sitting right on support at $5.00. She needs to hold here really bad. All you guys who are ready to buy need to step up because on market depth there are a lot of sellers ready to sell you some stock. If we lose 5 there is no real support until 200 ma
    12 Oct 2009, 09:41 AM Reply Like
  • castle
    , contributor
    Comments (100) | Send Message
     
    We have lost 5.00 on large institional selling, Earlier one seller offered 50,000 shares at 5, 31000 shares at 4.97 and 20,000 at 4.95. Son of a beech
    12 Oct 2009, 10:33 AM Reply Like
  • supermankind
    , contributor
    Comments (16) | Send Message
     
    don't even address comments like Arizona90-- i just don't think anyone puts that much into a stock-- it makes no sense- (just a basher with a short position)i saw problems coming for fusilev the day before --no press run up -- no word from spectrum-- short interest spiking--it was all there -- sppi is now a "show me stock" and those days are ahead of them.. we need a press release that sais "zevalin sales ramping up sais spectrum cfo" -- or like i said before more positive clinical info about apaziquone (sp?)- they just don't seem to be pumping out any info at all lately? i sold half my position at 6.40 the day before my avg. in price for sppi is 5.75 so i'm coming in even but then on fri i bought back 1/4 of my orig at 4.90 because it will bottom somewhere around here valuations just don't make any sense at 6.00 let alone sub 4.90 -- i am bullish but ready to swap in and out when there is no news-- but a bit of a run-- even today when it was up .12 you could sell and then go get it back at 4.85!! i'm not a day trader but sometimes you have to play the hand you've been dealt!! arizona 90 if you are real please just get out of this game it is too big for you-- you didn't bring your helmet to the battle go home do some research and get your head on straight then come back if you like!!!
    12 Oct 2009, 05:45 PM Reply Like
  • horse625
    , contributor
    Comments (16) | Send Message
     
    ok, 50% off

     

    let's see how low it can go.
    12 Oct 2009, 05:51 PM Reply Like
  • horse625
    , contributor
    Comments (16) | Send Message
     
    its 200 DMA is 5.26

     

    On Oct 12 09:41 AM castle wrote:

     

    > Opening bell the stock price is sitting right on support at $5.00.
    > She needs to hold here really bad. All you guys who are ready to
    > buy need to step up because on market depth there are a lot of sellers
    > ready to sell you some stock. If we lose 5 there is no real support
    > until 200 ma
    12 Oct 2009, 05:53 PM Reply Like
  • castle
    , contributor
    Comments (100) | Send Message
     
    Its 200 sma is $4.17

     

    On Oct 12 05:53 PM horse625 wrote:

     

    > its 200 DMA is 5.26
    12 Oct 2009, 07:20 PM Reply Like
  • 476774
    , contributor
    Comments (4) | Send Message
     
    HI, Justin

     

    What is your opinion in SPPI they get 50 M and the stock is down this
    Institution they lost like 17 M already at this price 4.92 and who knows
    My point is they buy to short o what? When you invest that kind of money
    they has to know something that we don't know. They invest to make money not to loose.

     

    Thanks,
    JC
    12 Oct 2009, 07:54 PM Reply Like
  • horse625
    , contributor
    Comments (16) | Send Message
     
    no, it's 5.13

     

    On Oct 12 07:20 PM castle wrote:

     

    > Its 200 sma is $4.17
    12 Oct 2009, 10:45 PM Reply Like
  • horse625
    , contributor
    Comments (16) | Send Message
     
    yes,

     

    On Oct 12 07:20 PM castle wrote:

     

    > Its 200 sma is $4.17
    12 Oct 2009, 10:46 PM Reply Like
  • Josh Rachlis
    , contributor
    Comments (6) | Send Message
     
    No axe to grind with him. Not making it up. And you're right. It was a very stupid move on my part. I hope others learn from my mistake.

     

    On Oct 09 11:33 PM RoyN wrote:

     

    > Josh,
    >
    > I think you just have an axe to grind with Justin and making crap
    > up. But if you are telling the truth you deserve to have lost your
    > money. Putting all your savings into one stock is sheer lunacy.
    12 Oct 2009, 11:12 PM Reply Like
  • Jocular
    , contributor
    Comments (12) | Send Message
     
    Josh - i recommend that you take a class on options strategies, not as a way to take on more risk, but rather to learn about protective strategies that are not that costly (less costly than simply buying puts to hedge a long position).

     

    Anyway, this stock is likely flat between 4.50 and 5.50 for a while, until zevalin sales clarify. and on that front - i'm not so sure. oncologists prescribe rituxan and chemo as front line therapy, followed by CHOP and/or RICE to push b-cell non-hodgkin's into remission so that a bone marrow transplant can be conducted. zevalin needs to somehow break into that treatment protocol without simply being a last resort drug for refractory lymphoma. maybe this can happen but it's not clear at this point. this is a "show me" story.

     

    On Oct 12 11:12 PM Josh Rachlis wrote:

     

    > No axe to grind with him. Not making it up. And you're right. It
    > was a very stupid move on my part. I hope others learn from my mistake.
    >
    12 Oct 2009, 11:43 PM Reply Like
  • Michael Becker
    , contributor
    Comments (54) | Send Message
     
    I would not count on near-term Zevalin sales as driving the share price higher. Q2 '09 sales of $3.3 million from Zevalin might have been up 25% over Q1 '09, but that translates into growth from $2.6 million to $3.3 million, or an increase of a mere $700,000. More importantly, for 2006, Biogen Idec reported $16.4 million in U.S. Zevalin sales, which translates into average quarterly sales of $4.1 million - so no matter how you slice it, quarterly Zevalin sales today are lower than back in 2006. Lastly, an October 12, 2009, article by Adam Feuerstein reports that Amar Singh, Spectrum's chief commercial officer, says it will take three or four months before Spectrum has a clear view on how Zevalin sales are progressing.
    13 Oct 2009, 12:45 AM Reply Like
  • Justin M. Hall
    , contributor
    Comments (753) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I have tried to post something several times this evening, but to no avail.

     

    I'm floored as to why the sentiment is so negaitve about Zevalin. You may be right. To be fair, would you please disclose what companies you receive your income from Mr. Becker?

     

    Since I can no longer post anything at this blog, I am at a loss.

     

    Justin
    13 Oct 2009, 12:53 AM Reply Like
  • Michael Becker
    , contributor
    Comments (54) | Send Message
     
    Justin,

     

    Regarding any potential conflicts, I refer you to SA's seven conditions of Gold Standard Certification at: seekingalpha.com/page/...

     

    In particular, read section "3. Disclosure of Conflicts of Interest"
    the fact that "Authors agree to disclose any material relationships with companies whose stocks they write about or parties that stand to gain in any way from the viewpoint they are outlining."

     

    As I have stated, I hold no such positions...

     

    On Oct 13 12:53 AM Justin M. Hall wrote:

     

    > I have tried to post something several times this evening, but to
    > no avail.
    >
    > I'm floored as to why the sentiment is so negaitve about Zevalin.
    > You may be right. To be fair, would you please disclose what companies
    > you receive your income from Mr. Becker?
    >
    > Since I can no longer post anything at this blog, I am at a loss.
    >
    >
    > Justin
    13 Oct 2009, 06:57 AM Reply Like
  • rrtzmd
    , contributor
    Comments (206) | Send Message
     
    ...you have to understand that Justin doesn't like coping with reality...according to an article by Ken Graber in the April 4, 2007, issue of Journal of the National Cancer Institute, only a thousand dose of zevalin were sold in 2006...sales were so bad that he actually reported that zevalin was being discontinued...sales haven't substantially improved since then and probably won't change much in the near future...for all the same reasons as mention by Mr. Graber...

     

    On Oct 13 06:57 AM Michael Becker wrote:

     

    > Justin,
    >
    > Regarding any potential conflicts, I refer you to SA's seven conditions
    > of Gold Standard Certification at: seekingalpha.com/page/...
    >
    >
    > In particular, read section "3. Disclosure of Conflicts of Interest"
    >
    > the fact that "Authors agree to disclose any material relationships
    > with companies whose stocks they write about or parties that stand
    > to gain in any way from the viewpoint they are outlining."
    >
    > As I have stated, I hold no such positions...
    13 Oct 2009, 11:10 AM Reply Like
  • Super Piker
    , contributor
    Comments (10) | Send Message
     
    Respirate, my post might be sad but it's true. My portfolio is not weak to the point that an 18% drop on a single day wiped me out but I blame myself for investing in this speculative "mess". Most people who invested in the 7's (me @6.55) kept on averaging lower going into the 8th. What did the market do? It closed at a near high and a high for 2009. Yesterday it did the same thing. Destroyed portfolio in the sense that momentum was completely stalled as the market(including Biotechs) continue to trade higher. As for growing, you're right! Next time my many years of investing will let me know not to invest in a poorly run company waiting on an FDA response with the potential of a negative response followed be ZERO from management. Glad I took my 1.25 loss and not looking at a 2pt loss with the market trending higher. Good luck to "shareholders" and hopefully you see this north of $6 soon. Market is trending higher. Money to be made elsewhere.
    13 Oct 2009, 12:38 PM Reply Like
  • arizona90
    , contributor
    Comments (6) | Send Message
     
    For any remaining long-term share-holders of SPPI, I suggest you check out this blog.

     

    seekingalpha.com/insta...

     

    Arrive at your own conclusions, regarding the commerical prospects of Zevalin.

     

    I no longer have any positions in SPPI.
    13 Oct 2009, 03:19 PM Reply Like
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