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mohan0805
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SR System Analyst Active Trader Swing Trades Day Trades Technology/Biotech/Financial Stocks
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  • VRINGO VS GOOGLE Possible Settlement/Buyout Scenarios 4 comments
    Oct 9, 2012 1:48 AM | about stocks: VRNG

    This is small attempt to entertain VRNG Longs and relax them a bit before a nerve wrenching days/week(s) ahead. Hope you like it.

    Note: This is my first blog in SA.Please ignore any mistakes.

    Scenario 1

    1)Confirmation is out that Google has given lowball offer say 350M and VRNG is negotiating for more.Then immediate estimates of pos for 350M settlement will arise and price will move towards that direction.May be it can be $10 over next 3,4 days we will see couple of 25% up days.

    2)Google cannot offer more,news comes out as talks in stalemate and heading towards trail.POS falls.

    3)Both parties cannot come to decision.Market will re-assess situation and price might either go up or fall down a bit while trail continues.At this point any rumours or news from jury will move the price either up/down.

    4)Trail starts,VRNG wins case awarded multi billon settlement. Price will reach 50+

    Scenario-2

    1)By end of day 1 google offers buy out.offered amount is Good one with Price offered per Stock is $15.Again market will catch up to reach the estimated price in next couple of days to $10.

    2)Vringo trying hard for make it work as settlement or raise the buyout offer.

    3)Vringo asks more.Settlement talks continue.

    4)Here Vringo Legal team has to show thier tactics to move this frm buyout to settlement.

    5)Google says yes for settlement and ready to pay only 380M half of what Vringo asked and also imposes restrictions not to go after thier customers.

    6)Vringo says we want 600m and more royalties.

    7)Goes to trail.Judge awards 500m and .5% royalties and Vringo cannot go after google customers.price goes to $35

    Scenario 3

    1)Google does not offer any offer or buy out and brings out secret weapon which vringo didnt expect.

    2)Vringo stance is softened, willing to take low ball offer or buyout.

    3)Google rejects any offer or buyout.Google has upper hand.

    4)Vringo buys some time reverts back strongly.Now google offers preliminary offer as there is no way out.

    5)Finally Vringo accepts reasonable settlement. price $15.

    Stocks: VRNG

    Disclosure: I am long VRNG.

    Additional disclosure: I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

    Stocks: VRNG
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Comments (4)
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  • Sam Quirke
    , contributor
    Comments (29) | Send Message
     
    Secret weapon? Like what?
    9 Oct 2012, 09:02 AM Reply Like
  • mohan0805
    , contributor
    Comments (32) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » secret weapon is the unknown element which vrng legal team might have missed.
    9 Oct 2012, 09:41 AM Reply Like
  • jeppsensalt
    , contributor
    Comments (14) | Send Message
     
    Where did you get confirmation of the 350m offer?
    9 Oct 2012, 04:27 PM Reply Like
  • mohan0805
    , contributor
    Comments (32) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I have used word say meaning i have a given a Example: Google has offered X Amount.
    10 Oct 2012, 02:28 AM Reply Like
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