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mohan0805
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  • Is Google Ready For Settlement Before Trial Period. 8 comments
    Oct 13, 2012 9:04 PM | about stocks: VRNG

    Thanks Everyone for encouraging me to write my next SA Article on VRINGO VS Google. This is my second article in SA for Vringo Longs.

    Time is approaching very fast for Google to take decision fast before the Trial begins on Oct 16th.

    VRINGO has maintained clear upper hand in the case so far be it in MSJ/MIL's/Judge's comments & notions. I don't think it will be any different in the settlement or for that matter in Trial if it happens to go to that stage and it will be very easy for Jury to take a decision and award huge settlement to VRINGO with triple damages.

    Reason being - it is very easy for Jury to understand what is online search or rank based search means or advs revenue is in this Internet era,just like the Jury of AAPL/Samsung case was able to decide Samsung has copied its Galaxy model by just looking at Apple Iphone in AAPL/Samsung case.

    So Google has to do a reality check at this time, whether they want to accept the fact that they don't have strong case to go forward in the case and end this smoothly by settling before trial.

    If Google decides to pull this beyond settlement stage, it will induce self damage in lot of different ways like being in limelight for bad reason in the public, Google investors will be upset with all the wrong buzz, stock price takes a hit in billions of dollars(2X or 3X of what they have to pay to VRINGO).

    For Google's interest it is better for them to be passive in settlement/offer negotiations and end this with less damage. It will be better for them to offer what VRINGO is expecting in give and take approach, willing to offer extra 100M/200M Vringo is expecting instead of loosing a bigger amount in Trail.

    On the other hand VRINGO has nothing to loose and they can go in with all guns blazing during Settlement/Trial process. It has been doing a lot of great things this year like acquiring I/P, setting up a great management team/legal team, getting nokia patents/sitting on 55m cash. In short time it has done lots of good things and thanks for this case now most of retail investors know about Vringo. Regardless of the VRINGO vs Google result,If they continue doing good things stock price of Vringo will go up in future patent cases/Acquisitions/any good initiatives Vringo might take in future.

    Disclosure: I am long VRNG.

    Additional disclosure: I am Long Vringo, I have not been compensated for this article and these are my expressions and opinions

    Stocks: VRNG
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Comments (8)
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  • mohan0805
    , contributor
    Comments (32) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I will welcome any settlement amount in excess of 300M+300M Royalties+Damages. Even if it is lower side by 150M or 200M VRNG is still cash rich in a huge way. I guess VRNG has to release 2 press release 1 about settlement offer if it is less another PR stating they are going to after MS/Yahoo next. That will be enough to keep stock going into double digits and up.

     

    Any settlement amount will be accepted very good by market, I don't see drop in share price if settlement offer is less than what market has expected.
    12 Oct 2012, 11:02 AM Reply Like
  • Bigsmoke
    , contributor
    Comments (23) | Send Message
     
    Google Mkt Cap close today is $243.5B. Roughly 50% USA, therefore say $120B and a 3% Charge for Willful Infringement is $3.6B (or if you prefer Sales+Property $Values Equation results in same Answer) equates to very roughly $36 per share of Vringo (Vringo will get around to Suing the 'Google International Operations & All Their Customers' later + All the Other Companies!) . Some say Goolge went to see Apple for help. Strange bedfellows....but when big bucks are at Stack Google obviously needs serious help. Mr.. Stout, the No.1 Patent Attorney in the World is know as a Reasonable Man, that is Prior to Trial; so let's Assume Google's Offer Sunday night equals $20 per Vringo share i.e.. $2B cash + Ongoing Royalties. That might prevent an actual Trial but I doubt it.
    Is this Case going to put an End to the Financial Goliath that think they can just Ignore Great Inventors with Solid Patents just because they have limited financial means? This Case may well be a Defining Moment for all those who Own Patents. Bring on the Trial Mr.. Stout! Trial Starts Tuesday October 16, 2012! Long Vringo.
    13 Oct 2012, 02:06 AM Reply Like
  • mohan0805
    , contributor
    Comments (32) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » VRINGO is not going for willful infringement as it is very difficult to prove GOOG has infringed intentionally.So 3x damages is off the table.But as Google Revenue numbers are huge past/future damages+royalties+treble damages itself will be worth $1B+. Also in yesterday pacer update from docket site, most of the mils have come in VRNG favour.
    13 Oct 2012, 03:38 PM Reply Like
  • mrmacgoo
    , contributor
    Comments (15) | Send Message
     
    Great Article, since GooGs had to update their US Revenue $VRNG
    is spending today looking for the burried treasure and if they find or get a sniff of where the bodies are burried GOOGs folds and throws
    more coin rather than going up the court house steps.

     

    Remember GooGs made a mistake or willfuly hide US Revs and showed courts World Revs and then Oooh NO we are only willing
    to go with 200mil. Thats what has been going on this week! What
    has VRNG found in the closet?
    12 Oct 2012, 12:15 PM Reply Like
  • Silent_Knight
    , contributor
    Comments (25) | Send Message
     
    I think this is the reason Google insisted on getting "correct" damage numbers. They want to settle but not at the amount Vringo claimed before. IMO, even at this price if you are looking to AT least double your money then buy now. I just bought a couple more shares. I've been long for a while now and luckily got in at a much better price than what it's at today but I really don't see it going down much below this. As of now they are fairly valued at around $4.60 until the hearing or settlement. Market sediment doesn't care for fair at times but unless there's some dramatic change in events Vringo is in a very nice place. Good luck to all!
    PS> Apple is a good buy right now also, I have a good feeling they are purposely generating a 'strain' so they can blow predictions out of the water. They announce earnings in a couple weeks.
    12 Oct 2012, 12:26 PM Reply Like
  • craig thomas
    , contributor
    Comments (42) | Send Message
     
    I'm only holding 3 stocks right now...VRNG, APPL and SPPI (who I also think will get a pop from next earnings). Hoping all three will be winners in the very near future!
    12 Oct 2012, 04:34 PM Reply Like
  • STOCKRIDER
    , contributor
    Comment (1) | Send Message
     
    Nice analysis, thank you.
    12 Oct 2012, 01:45 PM Reply Like
  • mohan0805
    , contributor
    Comments (32) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Thanks Stockrider.
    12 Oct 2012, 06:03 PM Reply Like
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