Seeking Alpha

mohan0805's  Instablog

mohan0805
Send Message
SR System Analyst Active Trader Swing Trades Day Trades Technology/Biotech/Financial Stocks
My company:
STOCKTWEETS
My blog:
http://weeklyoptionplays.blogspot.com
  • Things To Watch Out For VRNG Shareholders 13 comments
    Oct 14, 2012 2:15 PM | about stocks: VRNG

    There are couple of things VRINGO shareholders have to watch out as we are entering very important period next week.Those who can take correct decisions can maximise their profits and reduce risks.

    1)Watch out for Credible News to take better decision on your stock holdings. Official Press Releases released by Vringo can be found at http://corporate.vringo.com/ir_overview.html You can subscribe for VRNG news alerts at above link.

    2)Day Trading is very risky on Monday and Tuesday PM hours. We never know when the Settlement news will be released(If it happens). You will end up with no shares if you are caught in between your day trades and settlement news has arrived. As VRNG is getting all the attention we will expect new traders taking positions in VRNG.

    Imagine post POS after settlement is say $15 and you don't own a single stock because of your day trading, you would probably be thinking about your costly mistake for rest of your life.

    3)Holding Short positions is very risky. Imagine if you are in short position when Settlement news arrives. You will even not get chance to cover your positions as the trading halts after the Settlement News and the trading resumes say at $15.

    4)VRNG is expected to test recent highs next week in anticipation of Settlement news and any further bad news from Google about FTC anti trust case will also help towards upside for VRNG.I don't think FTC anti trust case bad news is priced in VRNG stock price.

    It is Always better to take some profits off from the table while POS is going up next week. Its good you have good % of shares in your account just in case VRNG wins big settlement you don't miss the mega pay out.

    5)There is some confusion on how market will digest the news about Willful Infringement limine is denied. I don't think VRNG legal team is that stupid to let this go. VRNG is playing a safe game here,If Vringo Legal Team(Stout) can do a great job in Trial they can still get WI for triple damages at the same time they don't want to be in a position where they have asked for WI and they are not able to prove it. Jury can still award WI to VRINGO if Jury feels the infringement is willful. VRNG have other key areas where there can score very big in Royalties/Damages determination.

    6) Finally don't get fear get hold of you if you don't hear settlement news by Tuesday. While the trial is in progress Settlement news can come any time even after Trial has started. Just be aware of this when you want to day trade/short the stock during trial period.

    7)Don't Invest your Retirement savings or go all in selling everything you have. While ROI is high on this trade, there is less % chance things might go in other way. Be prepared for both the outcomes.

    8)I feel the downside risk is limited during trial period and price will hold $4.35. Unless there is no assurance from VRNG team these investors should not have brought the shares for $45M. Expect some updates from VRNG if the share price is going down below $4.35, VRNG will accept offer any time.

    9)Some players(Institutional Investors/Cuban) have higher stakes on the table(millions of $$). They know better things than us, follow those players.

    Hope VRNG comes out as a true winner and every one gets paid well.

    Disclosure: I am long VRNG.

    Additional disclosure: I am Long Vringo, I have not been compensated for this article and these are my expressions and opinions

    Stocks: VRNG
Back To mohan0805's Instablog HomePage »

Instablogs are blogs which are instantly set up and networked within the Seeking Alpha community. Instablog posts are not selected, edited or screened by Seeking Alpha editors, in contrast to contributors' articles.

Comments (13)
Track new comments
  • teitoy30
    , contributor
    Comment (1) | Send Message
     
    nice article!
    14 Oct 2012, 06:29 PM Reply Like
  • mohan0805
    , contributor
    Comments (32) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Thank You.
    14 Oct 2012, 08:00 PM Reply Like
  • mohan0805
    , contributor
    Comments (32) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I believe lot of things can happen next week and shorts will get burnt if they don't cover. Its too risky.

     

    anything can happen to crush the shorts.

     

    1)Settlement is announced.
    2)More news about US Regulators suing Google.
    3)Google stock takes a big hit,and continues to tumble.
    4)Google looses 10% of its value next week.
    5)By Tuesday eod news comes out Google is taking all the hits by VRNG stout team, no expert opinions to present.
    6)Google is helpless.There is not much scope to argue as majority of the MIL'S went favorable to VRNG.
    7)More bad news on GOOGLE on FTC case.
    8)GOOGLE WOES hit front page in all the media. Google Management/risk assessment team under pressure.
    9)VRINGO's case comes to mainstream media with the updates. more pressure on Google.
    14 Oct 2012, 08:10 PM Reply Like
  • thomasmowry
    , contributor
    Comments (19) | Send Message
     
    Willful infringement being off the table has been flogged elsewhere on SA. It really doesn't deflate expectations of settlement range... I'm in agreement with most (long) posters that VRNG is asking for ~$1.3B past and future royalties and that can be achieved without willful infringement.

     

    A floor of $4.35 is purely speculative, even though it was an entry point for some heavy hitters. If this trial proceeds as scheduled i think that point will be tested multiple times. Again, this stock's activity looks like a seismograph of a 5.0 quake. That said, I do think that a settlement announcement is likely to come before the trial starts-so tomorrow will be exciting.

     

    I also anticipate the filing of another royalty demand letter based on the Nokia patents perhaps as early as this week. VRNG is locked and loaded to prosecute more than 2 infringements especially outside of the US-where they can rely on contingency incented IP firms driving the early phases...especially if they do it through such high powered partners as Powell Gilbert.

     

    If VRNG does prevail against GOOG, we'll have to rename them Vringo Starr!
    14 Oct 2012, 08:11 PM Reply Like
  • mohan0805
    , contributor
    Comments (32) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Nice post Thomas..
    14 Oct 2012, 08:18 PM Reply Like
  • mohan0805
    , contributor
    Comments (32) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » As everyone is expecting Google have to settle, if they enter into trial reality will hit on Google's face in few days. Anytime Tuesday night or Wednesday premarket announcement.
    14 Oct 2012, 10:13 PM Reply Like
  • mohan0805
    , contributor
    Comments (32) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Desai i got these links very late in the night. Expect huge spike $1+ if 2pm hearing goes in VRNG's favour. Shorts will cover after that update.
    15 Oct 2012, 10:14 AM Reply Like
  • mohan0805
    , contributor
    Comments (32) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Google Stock falling down. By EOD see more red for Google.
    15 Oct 2012, 10:15 AM Reply Like
  • mohan0805
    , contributor
    Comments (32) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » RESPONSE TO PLAINTIFF’S MOTION TO EXPEDITE BRIEFING FOR I/P
    ENGINE’S MOTION FOR REVIEW OF JUDGE LEONARD’S RULING ON I/P
    ENGINE’S THIRD MOTION FOR DISCOVERY SANCTIONS

     

    Defendants respond to Plaintiff’s Motion to Expedite Briefing for I/P Engine’s Motion
    for Review of Judge Leonard’s Ruling on I/P Engine’s Third Motion for Discovery Sanctions by
    stating that they do not oppose and, accordingly, will respond to the underlying motion on or
    before 2pm on October 15, 2012.
    >>> Google will respond on VRNG motion to expedite briefing on Third motion for Discovery sanctions. VRNG filed this last week.

     

    2) MOTION TO SEAL PORTIONS OF EXHIBIT 1 TO THE O’BRIEN DECLARATION IN
    SUPPORT OF DEFENDANTS’ MOTION FOR SANCTIONS AND TO STRIKE
    PORTIONS OF DR. FRIEDER’S SECOND UPDATED EXPERT REPORT
    Pursuant to Local Rule 5 and the Agreed Protective Order entered in this matter on
    January 23, 2012 (Dkt. 85) (“Protective Order”), Defendants Google Inc., Target Corporation,
    IAC Search & Media, Inc., Gannet Co., Inc. and AOL Inc. (collectively “Defendants”),
    respectfully move this Court for entry of the attached Order permitting Defendants to file under
    seal Portions of Exhibit 1 to the O’Brien Declaration in Support of Defendants’ Motion for
    Sanctions and to Strike Portions of Dr. Frieder’s Second Updated Expert Report (“Portions of
    O’Brien Dec. Ex. 1”). Grounds and authorities for this Motion are set forth in Defendants’
    Memorandum in Support of Motion to Seal. In compliance with Local Rule 5, Defendants attach
    a Proposed Order as
    Exhibit 1 and are filing separately a Public Notice of Defendants’ Motion to
    Seal. Defendants request that the Court retain sealed materials until forty-five (45) days after a
    final order is entered and requests that, unless the case is appealed, any sealed materials be
    returned to counsel for the filing parties.
    >>Google is asking to seal Exhibit 1 and asking Judge to AND TO STRIKE PORTIONS OF DR. FRIEDER’S SECOND UPDATED EXPERT REPORT.AND TO STRIKE

     

    3)CONSENT MOTION AND MEMORANDUM IN SUPPORT OF CONSENT MOTION FOR EXPEDITED BRIEFING OF DEFENDANTS’ EMERGENCY MOTION FOR
    SANCTIONS AND TO STRIKE SUPPLEMENTAL EXPERT REPORT IN VIOLATION OF THE COURT’S OCTOBER 9 ORDER

     

    >>Google is saying VRNG supplemental expert report supplements on issues beyond the authority granted by court.If Judge denies this it is Huge for VRNG.

     

    4)Exhibit 1 and are filing separately a Public Notice of Defendants’ Motion to
    Seal. Defendants request that the Court retain sealed materials until forty-five (45) days after a
    final order is entered and requests that, unless the case is appealed, any sealed materials be
    returned to counsel for the filing parties.

     

    >>Google wants Exhibit 1 to be sealed untill 45 days after a final order is entered , or unless case is appealed. Google dont want this information public.
    15 Oct 2012, 10:48 AM Reply Like
  • mohan0805
    , contributor
    Comments (32) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Royalty Rate is set to 3.5% on page 11. This is Huge.

     

    Final Pretrial Conference

     

    http://bit.ly/QJS9Rd
    15 Oct 2012, 04:52 PM Reply Like
  • Chung Yen Wong
    , contributor
    Comments (62) | Send Message
     
    Hi Mohan thanks for digging in and pointing this out for us.
    16 Oct 2012, 12:41 AM Reply Like
  • mohan0805
    , contributor
    Comments (32) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » VRNG has 425 exhibits and Google has 245 exhibits that they want to use during the trial. Even if Jury cuts the Royalty rate half 1.75%-2% is still huge.
    16 Oct 2012, 09:56 AM Reply Like
  • onetimershot
    , contributor
    Comments (115) | Send Message
     
    You realize your blog didn't call one thing correct. Right?
    28 Oct 2012, 10:52 AM Reply Like
Full index of posts »
Latest Followers

StockTalks

More »

Latest Comments


Posts by Themes
Instablogs are Seeking Alpha's free blogging platform customized for finance, with instant set up and exposure to millions of readers interested in the financial markets. Publish your own instablog in minutes.