Please Note: Blog posts are not selected, edited or screened by Seeking Alpha editors.

Coming Week February 14-18: Calendar Highlights, Themes, Key Market Mover

 PRIOR WEEK & COMING WEEK MARKET DRIVERS

 

See:

February 14-18 Review/Preview: Bullish Up-Trends Contradict Bearish Underlying Fundamentals

 

Market Drivers for the Coming Week: EU Deja Vu, How to Profit Too

 

 

Big Themes By Region/Country: US, UK Central Bank, Advanced GDP Key

 

 

In addition to those mentioned above, watch for:

 

US

 

Tuesday-Retail Sales: The two key metrics the Fed is using for setting its policy are the US jobs and consumer spending data. Both must improve before the Fed will consider backing off of stimulus and raising rates.

 

EU

 

Tuesday – a batch of EU and German preliminary GDP and sentiment reports, as well as a meeting of EU finance ministers that is usually a non event but potentially could be used to announce new steps to head off further spikes in PIIGS bonds rates

 

UK

 

Tuesday’s the day for the UK, with both the BoE Inflation Letter and CPI data. These are critical to the near term fate of the GBP, which has been strong in recent weeks solely due to speculation that rising inflation will force the BoE to raise interest rates, despite the still tentative status of the UK’s recovery. Indeed, last month’s GDP contraction means that the UK is one GDP report away from being in official recession, so we believe the BoE will err on the side of caution and continue its policy of avoiding rate increases until the economy improves. It has held that inflation is temporary and that once austerity measures are fully felt in the UK inflation will back off to the targeted 2%.

 

It is believed that if inflation is above 4% the BoE may be forced to move up rate hikes, but we doubt it. The recent rise in sales taxes will likely be partly blamed for inflationary pressures.

 

 

CHINA

 

Monday – China trade balance: China remains the world’s chief engine of growth and is thus an indicator for the global economies’ prospects.

 

Tuesday – Consumer Price Index and Producer Price Index: Markets have been sensitive to Chinese inflation data because it’s seen as a leading indicator of China’s tightening of its money supply, which is supposed to mean future slowing Chinese growth, which would be bearish for the global economy. Higher Chinese inflation tends to send markets lower, even though Chinese growth has remained robust despite months of efforts to cool China’s economy.

 

Highlights By Region In Chronological Order

 

Key events in Boldface

UNITED STATES

Monday – Fed’s Dudley speaks at regional economic briefing

Tuesday – Feb. Empire Manufacturing, Jan. Import Price Index, Jan. Advance Retail Sales, Dec. TIC Flows, Dec. Business Inventories, Feb. NAHB Housing Market Index

Wednesday – Feb. 11 MBA Mortgage Applications, Jan. Housing Starts, Jan. Building Permits, Jan. PPI, Jan. Industrial Production, Jan. Capacity Utilization, FOMC Meeting Minutes

Thursday- Jan. CPI, Weekly Jobless Claims, Jan. Leading Indicators, Feb. Philly Fed, Bernanke testifies on Dodd-Frank

Friday – Bernanke speaks on global imbalances in Paris.

 

EURO-ZONE

Monday – Dec. Industrial Production, EU finance ministers meeting in Brussels

Tuesday – Q4 Advanced GDP, Feb. ZEW Survey of Economic Sentiment, Dec. Trade Balance, German 4Q Prelim. GDP, German ZEW Surveys

Thursday – Feb. Adv. Consumer Confidence Friday – Jan. Producer Prices.

 

UNITED KINGDOM

Tuesday – Dec. DCLG UK House Prices, Jan. CPI, Jan. Retail Price Index, Jan. RPI, Bank of England Inflation Report

Wednesday – Jan. Claimant Count Change, Jan. Jobless Claims Change, Dec. ILO Unemployment Rate,

Friday – Jan. Retail Sales

 

JAPAN

Sunday – 4Q Prelim. GDP Monday – Dec. F. Industrial Production, Dec. F. Capacity Utilization

Tuesday – BOJ Target Rate, Jan. F. Machine Tool Orders, Dec. Tertiary Industry Index

 

CANADA

Wednesday – Jan. Leading Indicators, Dec. International Securities Transactions, Dec. Manufacturing Sales Thursday – Dec. Wholesale Sales

Friday – Jan. Consumer Price Index, Jan. BoC CPI Core

 

AUSTRALIA & NEW ZEALAND

Sunday – Australia Dec. Home Loans, NZ 4Q Retail Sales

Monday – Australia Reserve Bank’s Board February Minutes

Tuesday – Australia Dec. Westpac Leading Index, Australia Feb. DEWR Skilled Vacancies, Jan. New Motor Vehicle Sales

Wednesday – RBA’s Lowe gives speech on 2011 Economics in Sydney, NZ Jan. Business PMI, NZ 4Q Producer Prices Inputs & Outputs, NZ Finance Minister English Speaks

 

CHINA

Feb. 10-15 – Money Supply (M2) Sunday – Jan. Trade Balance, Jan. Exports & Imports, Monday – Jan. Producer Price Index Thursday – Conference Board China December Leading Economic Index.

 

 

For a full listing of calendar events, their relative importance, previous and forecasted results, see www.forexfactory.com >> calendar tab.

 

DISCLOSURE & DISCLAIMER: AUTHOR SHORT THE EUR FOR PERSONAL PORTFOLIO. THE ABOVE IS FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY AND NOT TO BE CONSTRUED AS SPECIFIC TRADING ADVICE. RESPONSIBILITY FOR TRADE DECISIONS IS SOLELY WITH THE READER