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Cliff Wachtel, CPA, is currently the Chief Analyst of anyoption.com, a leading binary options broker, and Director of Market Research, New Media and Training for Caesartrade.com, a fast growing forex and CFD broker. He is also the author of The Sensible Guide To Forex, and publisher of... More
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  • APRIL 4-8: CALENDAR HIGHLIGHTS, THEMES, KEY MARKET MOVERS & TRADABLE TRENDS 0 comments
    Apr 2, 2011 10:54 PM | about stocks: UUP, UDN, FXE, ERO, URR, ULE, EUO, DRR, FXA, FXB, FXC, FXD, FXF, FXEN, FXY, JYF, AUNZ, CYB, GLD, CNY, USO, DUG, USL, NBO, DBV, ICI, CEW, SLV, OIL, SPY, SDS, RSW, BXDC, SPXU, SH, DIA, EWC, EWA, TLT, XHB, ITM, IGOV, VGK, TBT, GSG, DBC, CORN, ICN, SZR, BZF, GRU, DAX-OLD, FRC, DB, SAN, BNO, ENI

     Here’s a brief overview of the likely calendar highlights, trends and their drivers for both traditional spot market and binary options traders of short term trades of forex, stock index, equities,  and commodities.MARKET MOVERS

    The below is just a listing. For full details see: APRIL 4-8 MARKET MOVERS: WATCH ECB, BOE, PRE-Q1 EARNINGS & 3 CRISES

     

    PRIOR WEEK
    • Markets Rally As Technical Strength, Buy-The-Dip Mood Outweighs Worsening 3 Crises
    • Fundamental Perspective: 3-Plus Crises The New Normal?
    • Technical Perspective: Entrenched Momentum – among the indicators we discuss are Double Bollinger Bands. For those not fully familiar with this exceptionally useful indicator from Kathy Lien, we just put up a full video tutorial on what these are and how to use them visit our youtube channel at: http://www.youtube.com/my_videos?feature=mhum . We also hope to have a brief quick and dirty version up soon for those who only need a quick review.
    • JPY Dives As Even US Fed Appears Closer To Tightening
    • EUR Rate Hike Hopes Outweigh PIIGS Worries For Now
    COMING WEEK
    • ECB Press Conference: Markets Bought The EUR On The Rumor- Will They Sell The EUR After The News?
    • Economic Calendar Events
    Big Themes By Region/Country: US, UK Central Bank, Advanced GDP KeyCENTRAL BANK ACTIVITY

    The RBA, BoJ, BoE, and ECB all have rate announcements and press conferences this week. The one to really watch is that of the ECB, which could shape forex and other markets for the week ahead, depending on what kind of increase it announces and the nature of its hints about the future pace and extend of rate hikes.

    There is a slight chance of a hawkish surprise by the BoE, not so much a rate hike but perhaps a further hawkish shift in MPC votes that would also raise rate hike expectations somewhat. No surprises expected from the BoJ or RBA

    There are speeches from Fed officials and Bernanke early in the week, as well as the release of the March 15 meeting minutes, all of which may add clarity regarding the ongoing slight but noticeable hawkish shift in Fed policy.

    ALSO

    Monthly Aussie and Canadian jobs data, though these currencies are far more likely to move with overall risk appetite, and with the news related to their primary export markets (for Australia, that’s China, for Canada, that’s the US).

    There are a slew of reports from the UK to supplement the BoE’s rate statement that should shed additional light on rate hike plans, or lack thereof.  The GBP continues to get support on rate hike hopes as inflation hasn’t proven to be nearly as temporary as Gov. King insists it will be.

    The UK faces tough choices given its commitment to it’s rather, ahem, austere austerity budget. It must choose between 2 unpalatable threats: inflation or even weaker growth (and thus jobs and spending).  We suspect they’ll follow the usual course of elected politicians and opt for inflation, which is less politically unpopular than falling disposable nominal ( before adjustment for inflation) incomes or rising unemployment.

    Highlights By Region In Chronological Order

    Key events in boldface

    UNITES STATES

    Monday – Fed’s Bernanke speaks on clearinghouses and stability

    Tuesday – March ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite, March 15th FOMC Meeting Minutes

    Wednesday – April 1 MBA Mortgage Applications

    Thursday – Weekly Jobless Claims

    Friday – Feb. Wholesale Inventories

    EURO-ZONE

    Monday – EZ Feb. PPI

    Tuesday – EZ March PMI Composite & services, EZ Feb. Retail Sales, German March. PMI Services Wednesday – EZ Q4 Final GDP, German Feb. Factory Orders

    Thursday – ECB Rate Announcement, German Feb. Industrial Production

    Friday – Finance Ministers & central bankers meet in Budapest, German Feb. Current Account, and German Feb. Trade Balance

    UNITED KINGDOM

    Monday – March PMI Construction

    Tuesday – March PMI Services

    Wednesday – Feb. Industrial Production, Feb. Manufacturing Production

    Thursday – BOE Rate Announcement

    Friday – March PPI Output

    JAPAN

    Wednesday – Feb. prelim Coincident and Leading Index

    Thursday – BOJ Target Rate

    Friday – Feb Current Account Balance, Mar. Eco Watchers Survey

    NB: If there is market moving move from Japan it is more likely to come from the ongoing radiation, production slowdown, and damage costs related to the earthquake/tsunami.

    SWITZERLAND

    Wednesday-CPI m/m

    CANADA

    Wednesday – Mar. Ivey PMI Thursday – Feb. Building Permits Friday – Mar. Employment Report, Housing Starts

    AUSTRALIA & NEW ZEALAND

    Monday – AU Mar. Air Performance of Service Index, NZ Mar. ANZ Commodity Price

    Tuesday – AU Feb. Trade Balance, RBA Interest Rate Announcement, NZ 1Q NZIER Business Survey Wednesday – AU Feb. Home Loans Thursday – Mar. Employment Report

    CHINA

    Monday – Mar. Non-manufacturing PMI Wednesday – Mar. HSBC Services PMI

    For a full listing of calendar events, their relative importance, previous and forecasted results, see www.forexfactory.com >> calendar tab.

    Conclusions & Ramifications- Tradable Trends To Watch

    For the rest of this post see article by same title at globalmarkets.anyoption.com 

    DISCLOSURE & DISCLAIMER: AUTHOR SHORT THE EUR FOR PERSONAL PORTFOLIO. THE ABOVE IS FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY AND NOT TO BE CONSTRUED AS SPECIFIC TRADING ADVICE. RESPONSIBILITY FOR TRADE DECISIONS IS SOLELY WITH THE READER






    Stocks: UUP, UDN, FXE, ERO, URR, ULE, EUO, DRR, FXA, FXB, FXC, FXD, FXF, FXEN, FXY, JYF, AUNZ, CYB, GLD, CNY, USO, DUG, USL, NBO, DBV, ICI, CEW, SLV, OIL, SPY, SDS, RSW, BXDC, SPXU, SH, DIA, EWC, EWA, TLT, XHB, ITM, IGOV, VGK, TBT, GSG, DBC, CORN, ICN, SZR, BZF, GRU, DAX-OLD, FRC, DB, SAN, BNO, ENI
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