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Cliff Wachtel
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Cliff Wachtel, CPA, is currently the Director of Market Research, New Media and Training for Caesartrade.com, a fast growing forex and CFD broker. He covers a variety of topics including global market drivers, forex, currency hedged and diversified income investing, and is currently working on a... More
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  • WEEKLY MARKET MOVERS 2: EU CRISIS, JACKSON HOLE OVERRIDE QUIET CALENDAR 0 comments
    Aug 20, 2011 9:46 PM | about stocks: UUP, UDN, FXE, ERO, URR, ULE, EUO, DRR, FXA, FXB, FXC, FXD, FXF, FXEN, FXY, JYF, AUNZ, CYB, GLD, CNY, USO, DUG, USL, NBO, DBV, ICI, CEW, SLV, OIL, SPY, SDS, RSW, BXDC, SPXU, SH, DIA, EWC, EWA, TLT, XHB, ITM, IGOV, VGK, TBT, GSG, DBC, CORN, ICN, SZR, BZF, GRU, DAX, FRC, DB, SAN, BNO, ENI

    Weekly Market Movers Part 2: A strategy guide to the coming week’s likely market movers for traders/investors of all major asset classes via both traditional instruments and binary options.

    COMING WEEK

    Ongoing Developments Concerning EU Sovereign Debt & Banking Crisis

    Over the past weeks the focus has shifted from the GIIPS to the stability of the banks exposed to them via ownership of their bonds. As noted in part 1, the idea that the core will bear the costs of the GIIPS is undermining the core, particularly the credit standing of France and confidence in its banks, as well as other EU banks with heavy GIIPS bond exposure. That means EU leaders will have to make some major decisions within the coming weeks or risk a banking and market collapse.

    Jackson Hole Economic Symposium

    As noted in part 1, we don’t expect a major announcement of a new stimulus plan at this time, though markets will still be watching closely. Suggestions of a third round of quantitative easing – or lack thereof could set the fate of the U.S. Dollar for months. After last year’s announcement that further easing was still an option, the Dollar dropped hard. The USD  has been the world’s worst performing major currency since last year’s Jackson Hole gathering.

    Other Main Calendar Events

     

    German/French/EU Flash PMIs (July) August 23 8-9:00 GMT

     

    Collectively significant if they all point in the same direction.

     

    USD Durable Goods Orders (JULY): August 24 – 12:30 GMT

    If demand remains low, the U.S. economy will suffer, as consumption represents approximately 70 % of GDP. It appears that the recent slowdown in consumer spending, worldwide has started to weigh on the manufacturing sector in the United States.

    GBP Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (Q2): August 26 – 08:30 GMT

    The declining rate has been a disappointment for the country, which is seemingly stuck in a state of stagflation, i.e. low-to-negative growth and high inflation. This is unlikely to spark major price action, unless the reading is a major surprise.

    USD Gross Domestic Product (Annualized) (Q2): August 26 – 12:30 GMT

    The U.S. economy showed slower growth in Q2 of 2011, per the preliminary reading, with the GDP figure registering a 1.3 % annualized rate, versus the 1.8 % expectation. The revision is forecasted to be 1.1 %, adding on to the disappointing data out of the US.

    After this past week’s disappointing data it appears that the American economy is not only slow, it is entering a state of stagflation, similar to the British economy.

    USD U. of Michigan Consumer Confidence (AUG): August 26 – 13:55 GMT

    With the U.S. economy continuing to deteriorate, a revision downward is likely.

    DISCLOSURE /DISCLAIMER: THE ABOVE IS FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY, RESPONSIBILITY FOR ALL TRADING DECISIONS LIES SOLELY WITH THE READER. IF WE REALLY KNEW WHAT WOULD HAPPEN, WE WOULDN’T BE TELLING YOU FOR FREE, NOW WOULD WE?

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