Cliff Wachtel's  Instablog

n addition to any unanticipated surprises from natural disasters or final straws for the EU, here are 6 known events that could really rock markets or even make history.

Jews won’t be the only who should be praying harder in weeks ahead

1. September 7^th – Germany’s Constitutional Court Ruling On Legality of Assorted Bailout Policies: It’s been widely assumed that the court would present a problem for Germany’s prior or future EU bailout commitments. We’ve seen a lot of assumptions about the EU die over the past year.

• No Bailouts: RIP Spring 2010: Ok, so the EU would have a little moral hazard issue.
• The EU Stands Behind Member Debts: RIP July 21, 2011: Uh-oh, EU debt is riskier than we thought. Hey, do we have any Spanish or Italian bonds?
• Germany Not Necessarily Behind The Bailouts? EU RIP

1. September 23^rd- German Parliament Votes On Greek Bailout: Germany has lead the bailout fight, has the strongest economy in Europe, and as the primary funding nation its full participation and leadership in any rescue scheme is non-negotiable for the EZ to survive.

However as The Telegraph’s Ambrose Evens-Pritchard reported last week, there is mounting evidence that assumptions of German support may not be justified.

He notes that German President Christian Wulff  warned that Germany is reaching bailout exhaustion and cannot allow its own democracy to be undermined the EU’s needs for German help. Here are a few quotes:

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DISCLOSURE /DISCLAIMER: THE ABOVE IS FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY, RESPONSIBILITY FOR ALL TRADING DECISIONS LIES SOLELY WITH THE READER. IF WE REALLY KNEW WHAT WOULD HAPPEN, WE WOULDN’T BE TELLING YOU FOR FREE, NOW WOULD WE?