A trader’s strategy guide to prior week’s market movers and their lessons for the coming week for traders of all major asset classes via both traditional instruments and binary options
Part 2: Coming Week Market Movers
Watching the EU reminds me of some deaths I’ve witnessed of those suffering from long term illnesses. It wasn’t necessarily the primary disease, but rather, “complications” resulting from it. A weakened immune system, heart, or simple will continue after the patient became emotionally exhausted from the struggle.EU: Greek Week – Ongoing Greek DramaTakes Center Stage Again
(But Watch Italian, Spanish Sideshows)
- Saturday: Workers will be protesting while the PM delivers a speech to his party
- Monday: Report from Hellenic Foundation on Greek development likely to be pessimistic
- Tuesday: Perhaps the biggest EU/Greek crisis event - EU finance ministers meet discuss bailout collateral provisions. Everyone wants collateral because no one trusts Greece to repay their loans, but Greece can’t heal if it must commit much of the cash loaned for collateral. Collateral is thus counterproductive but go tell that to voters. Finland may not be able to compromise, as its anti-bailout True Finns party is the one of the largest in the Parliament. The Dutch also appear to be steadfast in demanding collateral.
- Wednesday: The German high court will rule on the legality of the bailout per German law. Most expect the court will allow former payments to stand (ozervise ze EU ist kaput)but will want more say for Germany’s parliament. However that could endanger future rescue payments, because bailouts are unpopular with voters and those who actually listen to them. Making bailouts political footballs means they could get fumbled and spark a default, banking crisis, other defaults, global market crisis, etc.
- Thursday: Greek GDP numbers
Adding to the drama was
A WSJ article Friday that said:
“I expect a hard default definitely before March, maybe this year, and it could come with this program review,” said a senior IMF economist who is keeping close tabs on the situation. “The chances for a second program are slim.”
Failure of Greece to meet its targets, growing reluctance by some euro members to continue lending and the fact that private-sector participation in a second bailout won’t significantly alter Greece’s debt profile are the primary factors, the IMF official said.
Besides projected fiscal deficits widening far beyond the IMF/EU program allows, Greece has failed to reach its targets on raising revenue through privatization of state assets, and even neglected to achieve simple bureaucratic requirements, according to people familiar with the matter.”
A Saturday Reuters report assorted senior officials from Merkel’s coalition partner parties were insisting Greece either take its commitments more seriously or face expulsion from the EU.
Meanwhile, Italian workers are scheduled to strike, and CDS spreads and EU bank shares always bear watching as the ultimate signs of EU viability. I’ve been warned not to underestimate the determination of EU elites to go the distance. However the complications continue to multiply with each passing quarter. Heck, Italy wasn’t even widely considered a problem until the July 21st bailout started to impose losses on private bondholders.US: Fallout From Jobs, Calendar, Bank LawsuitUS JOBS REPORTS REACTIONS, & MORE
DISCLOSURE /DISCLAIMER: THE ABOVE IS FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY, RESPONSIBILITY FOR ALL TRADING DECISIONS LIES SOLELY WITH THE READER. IF WE REALLY KNEW WHAT WOULD HAPPEN, WE WOULDN’T BE TELLING YOU FOR FREE, NOW WOULD WE?