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Cliff Wachtel
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Cliff Wachtel, CPA, is currently the Director of Market Research, New Media and Training for Caesartrade.com, a fast growing forex and CFD broker. He covers a variety of topics including global market drivers, forex, currency hedged and diversified income investing, and is currently working on a... More
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  • THE COMING WEEK: 11 REASONS IT’S BIG 0 comments
    Oct 15, 2011 8:00 PM | about stocks: UUP, UDN, FXE, ERO, URR, ULE, EUO, DRR, FXA, FXB, FXC, FXD, FXF, FXEN, FXY, JYF, AUNZ, CYB, GLD, CNY, USO, DUG, USL, NBO, DBV, ICI, CEW, SLV, OIL, SPY, SDS, RSW, BXDC, SPXU, SH, DIA, EWC, EWA, TLT, XHB, ITM, IGOV, VGK, TBT, GSG, DBC, CORN, ICN, SZR, BZF, GRU, DAX-OLD, FRC, DB, SAN, BNO, ENI

    Part 2 : Coming Week Market Movers & How To Profit

    The following is a weekly strategy guide for traders and investors, covering coming week’s market movers and trade ramifications for traders of all major asset classes via both traditional instruments and binary options. Perfect for those seeking a summary look at likely coming week market movers

     

     

     

    The past week’s continued rally was mostly on rising hopes for progress on the EU crisis. No one believes the big ultimate solution is coming soon. That would require two huge commitments we don’t think the EU is ready to do:

    • Place national budgets under centralized EU control in order to avoid a repeat crisis. That means ceding a huge chunk of national sovereignty. How much control does a nation have if foreigners can determine its budget?
    • More bailouts from funding nations, probably more austerity or asset sales from debtor nations.

     

    The current rally is based on a belief that the EU may defer the day of reckoning again, long enough to get a meaningful, tradable rally. We should find out if this rally has legs this week, and if it has a chance to progress substantially higher, conceivably back near highs not seen since mid 2008 (though we doubt that much progress is likely). Here are the11 reasons why this week could open the door for another 100 point or more move.

    A. Technical Picture: Bullish Double Bottom Awaits Confirmation

     

    The first reason is that technically, risk assets are at crossroads.

    If there’s no breakthrough news justifying higher markets, technical resistance could be enough to spark profit taking and prevent further rallies in risk assets.

    We refer to the S&P 500 as our barometer for risk assets in general.

    As the chart below shows, we may be completing a bullish double bottom pattern that suggests the end of the down move that began in late July (NYSE:A).  For confirmation we’d need a sustained break above the 1120-60 zone, which includes:

    • The neckline around1220
    • The 100 day EMA also ~ 1120 (not shown)
    • The 200 day EMA around 1230
    • The 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the July downtrend (A).
    • Some room for the usual random market noise and false breaks higher

     

    A move above ~1160 would open the way for a move higher equal to the distance from the bottoms to the neck line, about 120 points from the neck line to ~1340. Beyond the usual minor resistance from round number price levels (1280, 1290, 1300, etc) we see no significant resistance areas containing multiple points of resistance like we see in the 1120-60 zone

    As always, take these patterns as a useful guide, not inviolate truths. Because so many traders pay attention to these patterns, they create a degree of self-fulfilling prophecy which you shouldn’t ignore.

     

     

    ScreenHunter 07 Oct 15 23 31  THE COMING WEEK: 11 Reasons It’s Big

    S&P 500 DAILY CHART 20 JULY – 14 OCT COURTESY ANYOPTION.COM 2011

    07 OCT 15 2331

    That’s the very simple technical picture facing us at the start of the week. Now let’s look at the likely key fundamental drivers for next week’s markets.

    B. Fundamental Picture: 10 Things To Watch

     

    The EU crisis remains the biggest market driver, so events affecting sentiment about it are the most significant market drivers.

    REASONS 1-8: EU CRISIS RELATED EVENTS

    TO VIEW THE REST OF THIS ARTICLE PLEASE VISIT http://globalmarkets.anyoption.com AND FIND ARTICLE BY SAME NAME UNDER THE WEEKLY TAB



    DISCLOSURE /DISCLAIMER: THE ABOVE IS FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY, RESPONSIBILITY FOR ALL TRADING DECISIONS LIES SOLELY WITH THE READER. IF WE REALLY KNEW WHAT WOULD HAPPEN, WE WOULDN’T BE TELLING YOU FOR FREE, NOW WOULD WE? 






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