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Cliff Wachtel
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Cliff Wachtel, CPA, is currently the Director of Market Research, New Media and Training for Caesartrade.com, a fast growing forex and CFD broker. He covers a variety of topics including global market drivers, forex, currency hedged and diversified income investing, and is currently working on a... More
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  • FOREX, COMMODITIES, STOCKS QUICK OUTLOOK March 3rd : Cliff's Two Minute Drill  0 comments
    Mar 3, 2010 5:55 AM
    Stocks: Prior Day: Asia mixed, Europe, USA up Today: Asia up Europe down. Risk Rally struggles, overcoming bad data from the US, on Greek rescue hopes. Many Daily Charts near or penetrating Strong Support/Resistance as risk assets reverse higher.
    -           FX: Short term bias to risk currencies [JPY, USD, CHF in order of safety appeal] vs. risk currencies [AUD, NZD, CAD, EUR, GBP in order of risk appetite appeal], as EUR, GBP get oversold bounce higher.
    -           Main events: MON. CNY PMI-, GBP Mfg PMI=, CAD GDP m/m+, USD ISM Mfg PMI-, TUES. AUD Building Approvals-, Retail Sales+, RBA Rate St.+, CAD BoC Rate St++., WED. AUD GDP q/q, GBP+=, Halifax HPI m/m. Services PMI+, USD Challenger Job Cuts y/y, ADP NFP Employment Change, ISM Non-Mfg PMI, THUR. AUD Trade Bal., GBP MPC Rate St, EUR ECB Press Confr…..
     -      Big Theme: EUR, GBP get mild oversold reaction bounce on vague Greek rescue rumors, CAD up strongly on hawkish rate statement, much uncertainty from coming US jobs data, ECB, BoE rate statements, as markets chop in ranges
    STOCKS:
    US: After opening with solid, broad-based gains, stocks faded and closed near session lows, suggesting that stocks will test lower in the coming session. However, the stock market still managed to eke out a slight gain, which puts it in positive territory for the year.
     
    Asia: UP- Commodity plays led Asian shares higher for a fourth straight session on Wednesday as investors held out hope for a bailout package for debt-ridden Greece. The MSCI index of Asia Pacific shares outside Japan was up 0.5 percent, helped by shares in the materials sector as commodity prices pushed higher. 
     
    European Stock Outlook: Down in early Wednesday trade, banks fall ahead on uncertainty about ECB, BoE rate statements and comments, key leading indicator data about US jobs reports this Friday, including Services PMI and ADP NFP data.
     
    Commodities Outlook: Up in Tuesday, early Wednesday trade
     
    Crude Oil Daily Outlook: Up slightly in Tuesday, early Wednesday trade, steady below $80 on mixed US oil inventory data, recovering most of losses from Monday, trading within tight $78-80 range for over a week. Likely to remain range-bound unless major news good or bad.
     
    Gold Daily Outlook:Futures up in Tuesday, early Wednesday trade as uncertainty ahead of BoE, ECB rate statements, US jobs data, as well as a weakening US Dollar all helped move gold higher
     
    FOREX Daily Outlook: Slight bias to risk FX as once again, as vague rumors of 'a rescue plan' for Greece sparks risk appetite and profit taking on the very oversold Euro and GBP, and a coming new Greek austerity plan and attempted bond sale
     
    US Dollar Daily Outlook: Generally down in Tuesday, early Wednesday trade as Euro, GBP are so oversold that even the current vague hopeful rumors of aid for Greece spark profit taking on short positions on the EURUSD AND GBPUSD, pressuring the US dollar lower. Strength in commodity dollars further pressures the USD lower, because it is the prime counterpart currency to these
     
    Euro Daily Outlook: Generally up in Tuesday, early Wednesday trade as vague Greek aid plan sparks oversold reaction bounce vs. virtually all majors. While both uncertainty regarding the EU debt crisis and poor fundamentals remain, we have warned that it is so oversold that any mildly positive news or uptick in risk appetite could spark a temporary reaction bounce. Barring new news, no reason to see the current move up as anything more than that.
     
    Yen Daily Outlook: Tuesday, early Wednesday trade – Getting an oversold reaction bounce: Steady vs. the JPY, up vs. the AUD, EUR, up vs. the USD, up but starting to pull back today vs. the AUD, CAD. Dovish pressure on the BoJ threatens the JPY despite market uncertainty which should favor this #1 safe-haven currency.
     
    British Pound Daily Outlook: Tuesday, early Wednesday trade: steady vs. the JPY, EUR CHF, and CAD up vs. the AUD, USD. Like the Euro, getting an oversold reaction bounce on a slight uptick in risk appetite based on rumors of a Greek aid plan, austerity plan, and attempted bond sale. Our view is the same as it is for the Euro, that current evidence does not support more than a short reaction bounce.
     
    Australian Dollar Daily Outlook:   Tuesday, early Wednesday trade: Down vs. the CHF, EUR, JPY, up Tuesday, down Wednesday to be only slightly up vs. the USD despite rising risk appetite, solid economic data showing Australia grew at the fastest pace in almost 2 years last quarter, supporting expectations for yet higher interest rates.
     
    New Zealand Dollar Daily Outlook Down in Tuesday, early Wednesday trade vs. the USD on stagnant commodity prices
     
    Canadian Dollar Daily Outlook: Up in Tuesday, early Wednesday trade vs. most majors on a much more hawkish than expected BoC rate statement that moved up expectations for rate increases on rising growth, employment, and inflation, all of which put pressure on the BoC to raise rates sooner than the previously planned June date.
    .
    Swiss Franc Daily Outlook: In Monday, early Tuesday trade - Steady vs. the EUR, JPY, GBP, up vs. the AUD as SNB intervention concerns remain, risk appetite also pressures it.
     
    CONCLUSIONS & Big Picture: Short term: markets up and down on uncertainty from poor economic news from most of the developed world, EU debt crisis, and stocks approaching recent strong resistance levels. It is US Non-farms and Unemployment Rate reports week, which adds uncertainty and lots of potentially market moving news. ECB, BoE rate statements Thursday could also move markets, especially if the ECB provides updates on the Greek debt situation, or the BoE provides new information on its stimulus policy. The EU debt crisis remains the big story, and any news positive or negative can move markets, given the grave threat it presents to markets. See The Week Ahead Quick View March 1st -5th : PIIGS, EU Already Beyond Help?
     
    DISCLOSURE: NO POSITIONS
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