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Albertarocks' Technical Discussions Instablog 42 comments
Before we begin, one word of warning to all who are new to SA... I hold Seeking Alpha in the highest regard and as such, although I have no intention of editing your comments other than malicious trolls who I will shoot on sight, there is one word that I don't want to see here. "Effing" is ok. The other word is not... not on Seeking Alpha. I'll start if all off with a comment I made on Dan's site this morning, September 20th, 2011. Here we go:
For the moment, I have to post the chart up here. Click this link first, since for the moment I can't post this chart below in the comments section. The comment that accompanied it follows below:
stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=IWM&p=5&am...
And to satisfy the "arguers" who want to distract from my main theme in presenting that chart, I put together another chart using 10 min. candles over 10 days. And guess what? The same .666 percentage number showed up again:
stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=IWM&p=30&a...
For readers who might have come here searching for the AAPL:$NAS story, it can be found here:
seekingalpha.com/instablog/357305-albert...
Instablogs are blogs which are instantly set up and networked within the Seeking Alpha community. Instablog posts are not selected, edited or screened by Seeking Alpha editors, in contrast to contributors' articles.
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This post has 42 comments:
For those not familiar, StockCharts has a feature which is calculated entirely internally by their program, called ZigZag. The program identifies what it considers relatively important peaks and lows in a chart pattern, then plots them, and then reports the MINIMUM of them all. The result is a zigzag line which shows every change in market direction that is as large as that MINIMUM... or bigger. From that point, the chartist can dictate whatever size of move he'd like to see the ZigZag feature generate.
In this case, I've just left the chart alone, have applied none of my own inputs and have simply asked StockCharts to identify the important MINIMUM ZigZag all by itself. The result... all moves on this amazing chart are a MINIMUM of... are you ready for this... .666%. And none of them took a full day as they used to before bankers became involved in markets. What you're looking at an incredibly corrupt gyration machine at work. It's sole purpose is to crush bulls. And bears. And balls. And lives.
The incredibly elevated volatility in the market since 2007 (even before, no?) surely bodes ill for the bulls. This kind of volatility does not indicate a healthy, growing market. It indicates poanic panic panic.
So, being the cooperative tool that I am, I created a 10 day chart using 10 min. candles in order to create some percentage other than .666, thereby making that percentage a non issue which was clouding my main point. And guess what? That percentage showed up again. Unfortunately I can't link that chart here in this comment, so I've added it up above in the intro to this insta.
I'm going to leave the broken link here so SA technical people can see it. The live link is available above:
http://bit.ly/pR2Tqr;p=30&yr=0&...
Anyway, whether it averages .666% or any other number, it's a WHOPPING increase over 0.5% moves - rare ones - per day.
Also, isn't it true that this kind of volatility was not at all unknown in the mid-1920s through mid 1930s.
Yes, regardless... it is showing a whopping degree of volatility compared to what we used to see back in the days when banksters were not allowed to meddle in the markets.
I'm not sure what the volatility was like back in the 20's and 30's. I was only in my 30's then and wasn't trading yet, lol.
p.s.: I've joked about my age enough that some people think I'm about 156 years old. The fact is that I'm not even close to retirement age yet. Well, getting there but not 'too' close yet. Still have all my hair and it's still dark, lol.
More than ever, I'm into trading corporate stories, than trying to day trade this whacked out, extremely manipulated market.
The uptick rule should be reinstated, and stocks should not be able to be traded for fractions of a penny. I also think that stocks over $10.00 should be traded in five cent increments.
That would slow down these HFT front running bastards.
Looking forward to see how this Instablog develops.
Suggestion: You should link in this Insta from your latest Lounsbury/Alberta Rocks thread.
You'll notice that my link up at the top of the insta works, but when I post it here, it doesn't:
http://bit.ly/pR2Tqr;p=5&b=3&a...
So until I find out what that's all about, I won't tell the 'other world' about this insta just yet. In any event, some other bloggers are trying to encourage me to set up my own blog, but I'm loathe to do it. I'm familiar with SA so I just thought this would be the easiest. But by some strange twist of fate I might have accidentally developed a following bigger than I'm aware of. I suppose we'll find out if we start to see a few new names appear on this insta. We'll see how it all goes. Nice to see you again. Now that I think about it, I guess I've missed you, lol.
There's probably so much illegal naked shorting going on nowadays it probably doesn't matter anyway.
If you can guess, I'm completely fed up with the SEC.
Basically the chart is showing that the degree of volatility these days is very, very high. In the past 5 days for example, the market has moved one way or the other by at least .67% (usually much more than that), switching directions more than 20 times in the past 5 days. In decades past, it was relatively rare for the market to move that much in a single day. My interpretation of this phenomenon is that the market is wildly wild, helped along in these marvels of volatility by the manipulators... the banksters. It's very, very profitable for them to jack investors around like rag dolls and shake all the dollars out of our pockets. My contention is that's exactly what the thieves are doing.
I wonder what size zigzags the program finds for the period during the big wave three down? Should show up on a 60min, 60day chart.
I made a couple of charts to show you more about the ZigZag thing, but they won't post here quite yet. I'm awaiting guidance from SA about why my charts aren't working down here in the comments section. I should have an answer from them by tomorrow. I've never had trouble with links here at SA in over 2.5 years of posting, so we should have a fix soon.
I see that you and I are now "following" each other. So anytime either of us makes a comment "anywhere" on SA, the other will be notified. Not by bothersome emails, but simply with a little flag down in the inbox at the lower right corner of your monitor. We also have the ability to exchange private messaging which is absolutely splendid. I've never used it much but for some things it's just awesome. You can also find that down at the "inbox".
Thanks for showing up here buddy... I love the things you have to say, and the way you say them. You're also a good resource for my toolbox. So I guess you're a kind of a tool, lol.
Thanks for the pointers on SA. I'm still a little lost on the formatting stuff, didn't know about the private messaging for instance. Now that I'm looking for it, I can't seem to figure out what you mean.
BTW, I tried submitting the article you suggested but still haven't heard back (wonder how many people they have sifting through submissions... )
I'm not 100% convinced my blogging is a good use of time/energy. What I'd really value is a small, close-knit dozen or so smart guys who can exchange worthwhile ideas in real time during the day. Dan's site is that way sometimes, but the trolls, thieves and gremlins can sure take their toll.
Getting a big readership is nice for the ego, but it doesn't "pay" in the traditional sense. I guess it's good karma if I help 1,000 people catch a turn, but I sometimes miss something else I would have noticed if I wasn't busy posting. Then there's the goofy and/or argumentative responses that are so off-base as to completely waste your time.
Seems like you've been at this longer than I. Any thoughts along these lines? And, feel free to PM me (and, please explain how!)
The article I submitted 36 hours ago, critical breaking news on IMF's increasingly negative view of China's economy -- I thought it pretty damn important since, ultimately, the entire financial world is pinning its bailout hopes on China.
And, if China, the poster child for economic growth and prosperity, is headed down the same path as US/EUR in 2006/7, most markets are pretty well screwed. As an investor, that's somewhat relevant information.
The reponse: "Thanks for the new article, but we're looking for more directly actionable investment analysis - How does your premise affect US investors? What trading vehicles might be used to capture your premise?"
Their economy is large, but they are also "printing" lots of money via huge bank loans. Inflation and currency devaluation is usually the result of this route. Stay tuned, it could get interesting.
I actually wouldn't have set up this insta on Seeking Alpha had it not been for some horrendous troubles on the site where we usually hang out. We'll see how it all goes I guess, but this insta is more or less a good safe, "dependable" location for me to post my thoughts when they sometimes just disappear off the other site. I really wasn't planning on making this my "main studio" but some of the other fellows might want me to keep it going, especially if we keep having troubles on the other blog format. We'll see what happens.
I can't comment at Pebble's site due to WordPress issues (they ALL have issues!), but so far alpha has been just fine.
I hope today's 283 point drop was just the opening salvo in a sustained move down. Da Bears.
Loved your doodling this weekend. Did that start on a napkin in a diner? :-)
BTW, did you realize that we're lucky to have Pebble? He left Wall Street more or less just in time. As he says "timing is everything". Our boy was stationed on the 92nd floor of WT2 only one month before the towers fell.
.
A bit of advice from someone who wrote a little summary about a June 20 visit to an investors' conference regarding a microcap battery stock. I'm now up to 11 "Concentrators" about this stock, and will be firing up another tomorrow.
Basically, I try to fire up a new Concentrator (Instablog) somewhere between 125 and 150 comments, because there is a Script thingy issue Seeking Alpha has not yet resolved. It's a loading time, server capacity problem that forces your puter's CPU to stress like it's being force fed duck fat. I'm not a geek, and do not profess to know squat about this issue, but I've found that any longer than 150 comments, the whole thread takes a noticeable while to load.
So I suggest for you to figure that you'll be having to deal with firing up bunches of whatever you decide to call your thread, each thread.
I also suggest that when you determine the thread has consummated, to provide a link to the next thread. In addition, I suggest for you to date each thread, like, "Rock's TA Unplugged: Beginning Sept. 24, 2011," and on and on.
I've found that when someone new comes into the Concentrators, asks questions, that through my beleaguered memory, I can target which Concentrator for that inquiring person to review. Or, more immediately, access that link, and point the querying person in that direction, or flat out find that link and provide it pretty much right away.
The fun thing about this is what I call the "Wiki-effect." That being inherently self correcting. If some bozo troll begins following, and commences making BS comments, the entire group will examine, figure, and blast the dude.
Hoping this helps, pal!
The kind of guys who would be attracted here are all technical guys (and a few gals) I know from several sites, one site in particular that is having a lot of glitches going on. The talent they have is wonderful. They learn things from me and I learn things from them. But above all else, they are a good and sharing type of people, as I try to be myself.
But they are very loyal to that other site which has a big following and has almost become a kind of "home" for many of them. It is not my intention to drag them over here, but simply to offer a space where I can post my own articles that are constantly disappearing off that other site. These people are trying to read my work over there, but then it disappears on them. In a nutshell, my more complex or detailed work is getting so much attention that it has attracted trolls who will flag my comments in an effort to make them disappear and in an effort to try to bring that other site down. It's on a Disqus format which is severely lacking.
So my re-emergence at Seeking Alpha is almost like a safety net... my safe haven. I really don't have an intention of drawing a lot of attention to my new series of instas, nor will I bother asking SA to publish my better works. They've already turned down two of them stating that "we do not support articles that are based on technical analysis". But as you know, our friend John Lounsbury, SafeHaven and others will jump on my stuff any time I offer it, for which I am very grateful. Seeking Alpha had their chance. But dayum... I do love this site for it's security.
On a different topic, you can obviously see some of my links above. Do you know or remember how I can change the wording of the link so that it appears something like this: "Click here for a live and updated chart". I've forgotten how to do that... to rename a link but still have it remain functional.
Thanks for dropping in old friend. And yes, I will link all my instas together somehow as per your suggestion.
In other words, a Java enabled aplication should work.
Linking Instas together is pretty easy. Go to "Author Board." Create the title and then write the text in the provided space along withyour charts. Tag your Insta with whatever sector or TA it's about. Then hit the publish button below. It will ask you again to verify publishing. Hit that button (like you did creating this Insta).
With your mouse, left click the search bar. Close the window. Then open up the previous Insta, and in the last comment box, paste the link to the new Instablog.
Also, up will pop a list of all your Instas, too, to make it easier to go back and forth.
What a day today was. Arrrgh!
http://seekingalpha.co...
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