Seeking Alpha

Albertarocks'  Instablog

Albertarocks
Send Message
I was born and raised in southern Alberta and graduated from the department of Structural Engineering Technology at S.A.I.T. in Calgary. My background is mainly in construction management although I spent 10 years selling real estate where I gained some very valuable knowledge about how... More
My blog:
Albertarocks' TA Discussions
  • Hindenburg Omen Blog - October, 2011 - The HO Is Repaired 107 comments
    Oct 20, 2011 10:00 AM
    This is the continuation of a discussion on the Hindenburg Omen which was originally initiated by our friend John Lounsbury 2 full years ago tomorrow.  Again, we offer a great big "thank you" to John for having maintained this series of instas for over a year and a half, until I finally learned how to create one by myself and take this endeavor off his hands.

    The preceding blog can be read here.  For further reference, or to read about actual Hindenburg events we have covered including the near misses which occurred in the "week before" and the "day of" the flash crash, the entire series began with John's original post which can be found here.
       
          
                            
    As result of an idea I got as after reading a comment from our friend H.T. Love, the picture on this insta will no longer be the blimp.  I hadn't realized quite seriously enough that it exuded perhaps overly negative connotations.  However, I will put the picture of the little blimp back up here if and when the HO starts to issue somwhat ominous rumblings.  In the meantime, here's something a little more pleasant. (Waterton Lake, Alberta.  I played on this pebbly beach many times beginning when I was 2 years old.  This is where my dad taught me to skip stones across the water.)
                                                      
    ==================

    Well we've covered this topic for two full years now, but for the past 4 months this space has been pretty quiet.  For the first time in its history the HO failed to signal a major top back in May although it had been rumbling loudly.  Unfortunately, it was simply the market action of the days previous that rendered the HO as "invalid" before it could issue a signal.

    At that time, there were plenty of debunkers as it was, so with its first failure ever, those who don't even understand what information the HO is offering anyway, will surely now dismiss it completely.  They would do that at their peril though, since it's simply providing an accurate advance warning about when the markets are becoming stressed internally, to a relatively rare extreme. While it's true that back in April the market was generating approximately as many new 52 week lows as it was new highs, the market went through a period when it basically flip-flopped for months on end, developing a beautiful head and shoulders pattern that lasted from early March until late July.  But while that sideways action was going on for a full 5 months, the 50 day moving average was naturally beginning to catch up to the action and threatened to actually go flat.  And flatten it did, finally turning south on June 3.  At that point, whether or not all the other criteria had been met to trigger an alert, the issuance of a signal would have been "disallowed".  And that's it in a nutshell.  The HO went "offline" on the 3rd of June.  It's back online now.


    On Wed., Oct. 19th, the HO became fully functional when the 50 day MA flicked ever so slightly higher.  Since it appears the market has broken out of an excruciatingly difficult trading range and now appears destined to run higher, this indicator will remain fully operational for the foreseeable future.   For quick reference, here's a 'still picture' of how we measure the all-important 50 day moving average.  You can also see clearly that the 50 day MA has rolled higher.  Feel free to click the link at the bottom of the chart for a live an updated version:

           
                                    Live and Updated Version

    We will now pick up where we left off, since the odds are very high that if/when the HO issues another signal, it will almost assuredly be something we dare not ignore.  The main thing to keep in mind is that due to its rather strict requirements, any signal from the HO will likely be issued somewhat late.  "Late" being a relative term in this case.  It may seem 'late' at the time a signal is issued, but if history has any say in the matter, it could well turn out that the signal actually occurs relatively early in what has sometimes in the past turned out to be a severe pullback.  In a perfect world, the HO would have issued a signal at some point last May.  Unfortunately, for the reasons given above... it didn't.  Not "officially".

Back To Albertarocks' Instablog HomePage »

Instablogs are blogs which are instantly set up and networked within the Seeking Alpha community. Instablog posts are not selected, edited or screened by Seeking Alpha editors, in contrast to contributors' articles.

Comments (107)
Track new comments
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18495) | Send Message
     
    Hey Stranger! Good to see you again.

     

    Although sans the "blimp" might be more enjoyable! ;-))

     

    HardToLove
    24 Oct 2011, 02:29 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6260) | Send Message
     
    Good to see you again Rocks! I like that interactive chart tool! Its great timing to have this up and operating now...
    24 Oct 2011, 02:37 PM Reply Like
  • Albertarocks
    , contributor
    Comments (2233) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Hi H.T. Thanks for your willingness to keep tabs on this thing with me. I was confident you would. Haha... I thought I'd made a change that all would appreciate by removing the firey, burning blimp that used to be up there. I thought the cute one would alleviate some of the fears and hype, lol. But if you prefer, I really could remove it and wouldn't be offended in the slightest. I have some very cute pictures I could use instead, that are completely irrelevant. Some are very, very serene and pretty. In fact, I like the idea you're giving me. Perhaps I can change the picture every now and then too. Keep the place fresh, you know? Yes... I'm going to do that and I 'do' appreciate your comment on the picture. I understand. Great to see you again.
    24 Oct 2011, 02:38 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18495) | Send Message
     
    LoL! The picture is fine. It's the "bad news harbinger" it takes to get you to come around that I was commenting on. :-))

     

    But I do understand - you've found a good place to be with your work and why come back here to fight the ... "inconsistencies" SA provides?

     

    HardToLove
    24 Oct 2011, 02:51 PM Reply Like
  • Albertarocks
    , contributor
    Comments (2233) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » You've given me an even better idea. I'll put the picture of the cute little blimp back up there when the HO starts to rumble, and not before. I think that's a great idea. Thanks for rattling my cage... even though I might have misinterpreted your comment a bit :-)
    24 Oct 2011, 03:06 PM Reply Like
  • DigDeep
    , contributor
    Comments (2633) | Send Message
     
    Thanks AR
    interesting times to be investing and appreciate your contributions!
    24 Oct 2011, 03:08 PM Reply Like
  • Mark Bern, CFA
    , contributor
    Comments (5243) | Send Message
     
    Rocks! Great to have this thread back (even though it may portend something negative). I find the whole concept very intriguing. I will definitely follow along and take notice when the divergence gets extreme and unhealthy.
    24 Oct 2011, 03:18 PM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10612) | Send Message
     
    Alberta, Rocks: Greetings. Glad to see the HO back in operation and that your still on top of it so to speak. Thanks.
    24 Oct 2011, 03:20 PM Reply Like
  • Kingsdyke
    , contributor
    Comments (21) | Send Message
     
    A big welcome back to the HO and of course it's great to borrow your skills on this issue. The near misses will probably be just as important. There will be precious little time to react to the real thing. Thanks for the much superior picture of the young lady. If I gaze for more than 30 seconds, I'm sure she winks at me!
    24 Oct 2011, 04:28 PM Reply Like
  • Albertarocks
    , contributor
    Comments (2233) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I hope the HO can help out at some point in the future. I'm glad you checked in now that it's up and running once again and yes, for sure my personal opinion is that the near misses are pretty much as good as an official signal. The young lady has winked at 'me' in the past so perhaps she's winking at you as well ;-)
    24 Oct 2011, 04:29 PM Reply Like
  • doctor_jr
    , contributor
    Comment (1) | Send Message
     
    Thanks for the alert. I'll be checking in.

     

    I kinda like the blimp, but the content is what matters.
    25 Oct 2011, 10:03 AM Reply Like
  • Albertarocks
    , contributor
    Comments (2233) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Thanks doc. It's so nice to see you show up here. Welcome.

     

    These pages originally used a picture of the actual Hindenburg in flames and it really was quite alarming. About 6 months ago I changed it to the smaller blimp in order to try to ease the atmosphere. And then H.T. gave me the idea to change it up altogether. I imagine I'll be switching pictures now and then just to freshen up the page, but I 'will' put up the picture of the blimp when the HO starts to make rumbling sounds. BTW, did you get here in time to see the picture of the young lady? You'll know who it is. Athlete... I think you'll remember our conversation about that.

     

    But yeah, for sure the content is really what matters. Stay tuned :-)
    25 Oct 2011, 11:15 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6260) | Send Message
     
    A good blimp picture would be the one used by Professor Fate in the Great Race :)
    25 Oct 2011, 11:17 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10662) | Send Message
     
    I loved that movie, especially the pie fight, one of the best ever filmed.

     

    For your enjoyment, here it is, Jack Lemmon at his best!

     

    http://bit.ly/umvDei
    25 Oct 2011, 11:28 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10662) | Send Message
     
    WB, Rocks. Will be monitoring.... I'll be surprised if the HO triggers anytime during the rest of this year.

     

    Next year, during Q1 or Q2, may be a different story.
    25 Oct 2011, 11:16 AM Reply Like
  • John Lounsbury
    , contributor
    Comments (3999) | Send Message
     
    AR - - -

     

    The new photo is so-o-o-o soothing. Just how one feels before the blindside.
    26 Oct 2011, 12:46 AM Reply Like
  • Mark Bern, CFA
    , contributor
    Comments (5243) | Send Message
     
    Wait! Is that a tsunami way off in the distance? Maybe not, so just chill. It may miss us completely.
    26 Oct 2011, 02:12 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18495) | Send Message
     
    "so just chill"

     

    Uh, that's a massive snow-laden cold front moving in if I ever saw one! Bundle up or you will be "chilled". I estimate 18" of wet snow out of that one.

     

    :-))

     

    Nothing much for Canadian's I guess.

     

    HardToLove
    26 Oct 2011, 04:42 AM Reply Like
  • Redneck_Rampage
    , contributor
    Comment (1) | Send Message
     
    Hey AR, glad to see you're back writing! Great stuff as always and look forward to more!

     

    RR
    26 Oct 2011, 04:41 AM Reply Like
  • Albertarocks
    , contributor
    Comments (2233) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Hey RR! Great to see you show up here too (Doc_jr. did as well). Welcome to Seeking Alpha. I've missed ya man.
    26 Oct 2011, 09:57 AM Reply Like
  • Albertarocks
    , contributor
    Comments (2233) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Good morning folks. As a matter of introduction, the commenters who are starting to show up here as new contributors to Seeking Alpha (doctor_jr. and Redneck for example) are people I know from other websites. Until recently they were not aware that I have been active on SA for quite some time now. They are technical analysts who's opinions I respect a great deal. I'm happy to report that they are first class individuals (as are ALL of the rest of you who I've come to know and... and... and love :-). I definitely consider these 'newcomers' as good (and very valuable) friends. It's highly unlikely they'll ever mention anything about specific stocks except for perhaps the highest of flyers that would have a major impact on the broader indices. AAPL, GOOG, IBM... maybe... at the most. They're also very busy doing their own thing, active on other sites... in some cases on their own blogs. So it remains to be seen whether or not they'll become more active on SA. It would be a great addition if they did.

     

    Ok, onto the Omen thing. You'll recall that I mentioned that as long as the NYSE continued higher the moving average line on that index would remain pointing north. That has not transpired. So for today and likely tomorrow, the MA is wavering between higher and lower. So at this moment, the HO is flickering. This is not unusual at times of 'consolidation'. However, it's also possible that we're not at a period of 'consolidation', but rather major turning point. We just don't know quite yet, although there are several reasons to expect that the Santa Claus rally could indeed still develop. We don't know that for sure either, at this point.

     

    Having said that, if you click on the "live-link" just beneath the chart at the top of the page, or here http://bit.ly/srUr5f you can see fresh annotations that explain that barring a massive selloff, the HO will still come back on-line on Friday. Possibly even today or tomorrow. At some point though, there's every chance that the NYSE will turn higher once again which would put the HO back on more solid footing.
    26 Oct 2011, 11:06 AM Reply Like
  • Albertarocks
    , contributor
    Comments (2233) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » As you could imagine, with the markets higher today, the moving average on the NYSE is now headed strongly higher and on sound footing. So the HO is in no danger of going off-line for the foreseeable future. This is a good thing by any measure.

     

    And just for interest sake, the number of new highs and new lows registered today (so far) are 144 and 3 respectively. In other words, from the perspective of the HO, this mad rally is very healthy since there are no stresses associated with it that the HO can detect. The markets might be a bit overextended after the biggest monthly gain in history, but that's not something we're investigating here. The monthly candle is truly something to behold. Here's what it looks like:
    http://bit.ly/uqTh1q

     

    Note the volume on it as compared to the volume on the preceding down-months. That's something that should not be lost on us.
    27 Oct 2011, 03:42 PM Reply Like
  • Mark Bern, CFA
    , contributor
    Comments (5243) | Send Message
     
    Rocks - If I read the chart correctly, volume has dropped during the rally. That doesn't seem to healthy or sustainable to me. Am I missing something?
    28 Oct 2011, 01:40 PM Reply Like
  • Albertarocks
    , contributor
    Comments (2233) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I agree completely MB. In years past that would have been a very dependable signal. "Very" dependable. But ever since the bots that belong to the banks and the hedge funds got involved, the volume metrics aren't really reliable anymore. I only pointed it out because of its past history of being a solid indication that a rally was really tiring.

     

    But these days we've seen so many incredible overnight gaps higher that in the morning the higher price is very easy to maintain since it's those who were short who have to do the buying. Their hand is more or less forced and the real big institutions don't have to do much to just enjoy the ride. We've also seen how the bots can select times when to buy "very few" shares that are priced "way higher" and refrain from buying "large blocks of shares" that are priced "way higher". So the entire rally off the 2009 low has exhibited this feature of rising prices on very small volume and huge volume on any meaningful drops. That has all the hallmarks of distribution at a top, but then the market just turns around again and heads higher on very little volume. It seems to be almost like a game that has no end.

     

    Ordinarily, this type of decreasing volume on an incredible one month rally (the current month being the biggest one month gain in history as far as I know) would have been overwhelming evidence that the "true" direction that the market wants to take is down. There is no debate about it, the market is being propped up. Bernanke has admitted that. So I guess as long as their mandate is to keep the markets up no matter what, the volume metrics are of no consequence. It's surreal, but that's what we're faced with.
    .
    28 Oct 2011, 02:43 PM Reply Like
  • Mark Bern, CFA
    , contributor
    Comments (5243) | Send Message
     
    Rocks,

     

    You're right as usual. With 65-70% of volume controlled by the HFTs, dark pools, and hedge funds (a relatively small number compared to the total number of investors), the market doesn't act rationally anymore. We need a few regulatory changes that matter to level the playing field for retail investors. But that doesn't seem to be the objective of political leaders, no matter what they say.

     

    - reinstate the uptick rule
    This would reduce short sales as well as the ability to manipulate to the downside.

     

    - institute a small transaction charge of maybe 2 cents/share
    This would make nanosecond trading unprofitable because the bots could no longer profit from movements of less than a penny. It would also reduce trading volume considerably and that decrease would all come from short-term traders; i.e. HFTs, dark pools, and hedge funds. This could be the best way to level the playing field. If I'm "investing" in 100 shares at $40/share for the long term ($4,000), what difference will $2 make in my decision? None. But if I were trading 1 million shares at $40/share for a quick, intra-day profit that fee would amount to $20,000. If the spread is less than 2 cents I can't be assured of a winner and I wouldn't make the trade.

     

    Just my opinion, but I sure would like to get back to being able to invest in a free market again.
    28 Oct 2011, 03:12 PM Reply Like
  • Albertarocks
    , contributor
    Comments (2233) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » K202, here's a chart that demonstrates what I'm referring to. It's called a "candlevolume" chart where the width of the candles are determined by the volume involved in that particular candle. This one is for the retail sector ETF. As you can see, the green candles are very thin which demonstrates very thin volume when the issue is rising. On the other hand the red candles are broad which shows a great deal of interest in dumping the stock if it moves down in the slightest. It's pretty darned hard to deny the evidence here. But then as if by magic... it all turns higher again on very little volume and the markets are off to the races once again. This is one of the effects of allowing machines to do illegal quote stuffing at 10,000 bids per second. 100% illegal, yet it goes on every second of every trading day. The SEC is obviously asleep at the switch. Personally I believe they're paid very well to remain sleepy:
    http://bit.ly/uaew46
    28 Oct 2011, 03:00 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6260) | Send Message
     
    I wonder if one of the reasons for the recent large increase in M1 is due to people fleeing the fixed market.
    28 Oct 2011, 03:29 PM Reply Like
  • Albertarocks
    , contributor
    Comments (2233) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » WOW! Look at that spike on the chart now. It happened in about a thousandth of a second and then price came right back down again. That entire little burst higher and the subsequent drop right back down happened faster than the human eye can see. That's the bots at work. Probing?
    28 Oct 2011, 03:41 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10662) | Send Message
     
    Great chart, Rocks.

     

    Would it not make sense that sell offs most always have more volume than buying volumes? I guess another way to explain the phenomena is that panic selling usually occurs with greater volumes than does panic buying.

     

    My guess is that panic selling is exacerbated more so when the retail investor capitulates and joins in the selling more often than panic buying is meliorated when the retail investor commits and buys...when it comes to analyzing volume metrics.
    29 Oct 2011, 02:46 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18495) | Send Message
     
    A common "wisdom" is that falls are always faster and deeper than the rate and distance of the rises.

     

    This fits with some empirical studies that demonstrate that fear is a stronger driver in humans that greed or pleasure or ...

     

    I believe it is supported by the fall that bottomed in '09 very quickly and look how long it is taking to get back near those levels even with all the QEx and "Operation Twist" and inflation thrown in for good measure.

     

    HardToLove
    29 Oct 2011, 02:50 PM Reply Like
  • John Lounsbury
    , contributor
    Comments (3999) | Send Message
     
    HTL - - -

     

    I haven't studied the data but I have heard a number of people comment that bear market rallies can also be spectacularly quick compared to the preceding decline. Of course (if the previous statement is true) it is also possible that a strong rally is the start of a longer advance. A lot of people apparently subscribed to the sharp bear market rally theorem in 2Q/2009 and missed out (at least in part) on an advance of ca.100%.
    29 Oct 2011, 03:50 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18495) | Send Message
     
    That makes a lot of sense too! If the bears are short and the market moves against them in today's HFT environment, the computers can react much more quickly than antiquated old humans could in the past. Adding in instant dissemination of information ...

     

    The yammering on the tube is that a lot of the recent pop is short covering. But just today I read articles that say it's a for-real rally as it jumped off from levels that were already high.

     

    Ignoring all that, I do believe that the next wave of PIIGS-slop will take the market in the other direction just as quickly. Portugal paying 6%+ for debt issuance already, Ireland et al now queuing up for their "haircut", ...

     

    We are just fortunate that the U.S. GDP revision will come long after the ADD market has focused elsewhere.

     

    In all honesty though, I can't determine if *any* of what I've mentioned has other than short-term effects. From all I can read the market is not really tied to the economy anymore.

     

    A recent example for me is "best October since 1987". Uh, pardon? Can they price that for me in 1987 or earlier dollars? Or even pre-QE?

     

    Measuring anything in nominal dollars seems to me to be an academic exercise in our current environment. Especially when we compare market "gains" to gains in things like sugar, cotton, ... It seems apparent that we keep losing purchasing power even as the market rises.

     

    Sorry - I got carried away John!

     

    HardToLove
    29 Oct 2011, 04:28 PM Reply Like
  • Albertarocks
    , contributor
    Comments (2233) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » That phenomenon is very true John. It is directly related to the fact the 'powers' generally put all their muscle behind rallies, or at least know when and how it initiate them. And of course they do not exert their energy toward crashing the markets to oblivion, but instead do all they can to stop that from happening. Market pullbacks occur 'naturally' when the time is right... without added downward pressure from bankers or funds. I guess you could say 'everybody wants the markets to go higher' and nobody exerts pressure for them to crash. So you bet, people are quick to jump on the 'positive' bandwagon. This month's rally is a prime example of what 'might' turn out to have just been an incredible rally in an overall bearish environment. I sincerely hope I'm not looked upon as a perma-bear with a comment like that, but the facts are staring us in the face... Europe is not becoming more and more flush with liquidity with each passing day.
    29 Oct 2011, 07:12 PM Reply Like
  • Albertarocks
    , contributor
    Comments (2233) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » No Maya, generally speaking we'd want to see drops in the market occur with little volume. That is what happens a healthy correction in a bull cycle. It has happened like that almost ever since the beginning of stock markets. Then the volume starts to pick up noticeably in the ensuing bounce. That is of course a very good sign.

     

    It's when the down days are on high volume that we become perplexed because that only happens in a 'seriously minded' bear cycle. For reasons that are far from normal, these days we're seeing the big volume on down days, yet the market just continues to climb after that on minuscule volume, in what otherwise appears to be a bullish cycle. The volume metrics are all backwards and are very abnormal these days. It's definitely a cause for suspicion and in fact makes it all that much more difficult to get a realistic read on the markets. They're really, really screwy these days.

     

    You mention "panic selling". If the retail investor holds 1/100th of one percent of the value of the stock markets I'd be surprised. So I'm almost certain it is not the retail investor who is selling hard into the drops. Regardless of who it is, there 'shouldn't be any' panic selling in a normal correction in a normal market... not unless we're in a bear market scenario.... a panic scenario. But we're not in a panic scenario, especially when the market rises 20% in 14 days or so. So the volume characteristics are very strange these days. It's very suspicious since, to the best of my knowledge, this weird type of volume action has never happened before to this extent.
    29 Oct 2011, 09:25 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18495) | Send Message
     
    Hey AR!

     

    I think a discussion of "follow-through" fits in here too!

     

    Using SPY, the price spread and volume combination does *not* indicate "follow-through" either.

     

    I'm hanging on to my triple-shorts on the SPX, even though I entered too early and am suffering some irritation (only 2 small positions so it's not "painful" yet).

     

    It's *very* early, but the e-mini futures are down a small bit ATM, -0.21% ($-2.75). But this early I've found them to not be good indicators - inconsistent.

     

    Good to see you posting frequently here again.

     

    HardToLove
    30 Oct 2011, 05:35 PM Reply Like
  • DigDeep
    , contributor
    Comments (2633) | Send Message
     
    It would seem that QE'z has been the main trigger and/or driver from Q209 to date. The better GDP print might hold off QE3..?

     

    Will heavy EU printing drag down EUR / prop USD?

     

    Sure wish there was less intervention and the potential for more.
    29 Oct 2011, 04:02 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18495) | Send Message
     
    "Will heavy EU printing drag down EUR / prop USD?"

     

    I sure hope so - have you looked at the dollar since the start of October? Sgxnifty chart shows a drop of around $5 for the USD.

     

    It would be nice to see commodity prices go down for a change (other than copper, which makes everyone run around hollering "The China Sky's falling, the China Sky's falling".

     

    I think it won't wait until EU printing though - I suspect it will come as the market starts to factor in the frailty of this EZ deal and its ramifications. I mean, how do you fund this deal when several of the funding parties are on the next-to-fall list? And now the markets know that CDSs may be essentially worthless unless you are willing to drag through the courts for extended periods of time. If you can't buy reliable protection, you ask for higher rates on the sovereign debt to offset the perceived increased risk, right?

     

    Portugal already paying 6%+.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    29 Oct 2011, 04:36 PM Reply Like
  • Albertarocks
    , contributor
    Comments (2233) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » "If you can't buy reliable protection, you ask for higher rates on the sovereign debt to offset the perceived increased risk, right?"

     

    Exactly right! We know one thing for sure, those 50% haircuts were not 'voluntary'. The fact that the CDS did not trigger just reeks of evidence that the insurers can't afford to pay up because they might be just a little bit... oh what should we call it... overextended? Derivatives gone mad. I mean, they come up with a "solution" to the Greek credit crisis by basically announcing a one trillion Euro bailout package created out of thin air and the Euro 'surges' in value? WTH is wrong with that picture?

     

    The Euro surges and the $CAC explodes higher by 6%. And on the same news, the USD tanks and the Russell surges by 6%. They can't have it both ways for crying out loud. Clearly there's a tear in the matrix somewhere.

     

    But as far as your short position on SPY is concerned, after an incredible rally of 20.3% in 25 days or so, I think a position like that would normally make a lot of sense. I mean can you imagine going long after a run like that? I sure can't. But many did just that on Thursday and Friday. Mind you, those who have held on in blind faith of an ever-rising market have done very well in October. However, this morning the CAC, FTSE and DAX closed the day with a real hard drop. Who knows if our markets will follow that same pattern and drop off toward the end of the session? I think they 'should', but you know how it is... if the powers that be want the DOW to hit 20,000, they're going to try to do everything in their power to make that happen. They've got their work cut out for them though, with a surging dollar. Equities and the dollar shouldn't rise together, not unless the economy is truly booming (and expanding) as it was in the late 90's. But at the moment, I don't think we're really seeing any serious damage to the US markets either. The HO certainly isn't detecting anything out of the ordinary other than a rather low number of new 52 week highs (31 at the moment) considering that we've just seen the markets surge 20.3% since Oct. 4th.

     

    By the way, I think the BOJ may have triggered something here that is long overdue, best depicted by the picture above (the Halloween PUmpKIN'). The dollar is up by a whopping 1.3% as I type this with the Euro a lot lower. I think it makes sense that this continue. More importantly, the Aussie dollar and the Yen are down very hard. It's a bit early to say if this is a sign that the FX carry trade is unwinding because the Aussie/Yen pair has a very, very close correlation with the S&P, and it's higher today. That would suggest that there is still a certain appetite for risk. I'm not sure how long that will hold up though, after seeing the strongest rise in the USD in quite some time. To me this is signifying perhaps a real shake-up for the Euro. What has held that currency up this long is somewhat understandable I suppose, since they really are on the verge of a credit collapse of their own. In any event, I think these moves in the currency markets are quite significant, larger than we have seen in quite a while. But as we witnessed at the time of the tsunami, and in subsequent interventions, the efforts by the BOJ and the G7 did little to stop the trajectory that the Yen seems to want to take. So although I think the Yen will continue to rise, it should be accompanied by the US dollar (although that hasn't been the pattern so far). Meanwhile, the Aussie just might be ready for some pretty serious downside, along with most other currencies in the world. I could certainly be wrong about all this, but it's the scenario that seems to make the most sense to me:
    http://bit.ly/sG0EBJ

     

    You know, this is really an interesting phenomenon we're witnessing in the FX markets. The Euro has surged and the dollar has fallen. Until very recently I thought the opposite made the most sense. But when I think about it today, it seems that deflation should be happening all over the globe. That would mean the major currencies strengthening, especially in Japan, the USA and Europe. Perhaps I've just had the order backwards. The Euro strengthened first because they experienced their crisis before the USA has. Perhaps deflation is coming to our shores next. At least that's what the current currency action might be suggesting. Japan first. Europe second and the USA third. In all due respect to the other currencies, including my own, they are insignificant. Including the yuan as long as it is pegged. Just kind of thinking out loud here.
    .
    31 Oct 2011, 01:33 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18495) | Send Message
     
    AR, I entered that short position way too early, based on pure $1200 price break and expected it to bump down off that again.

     

    But managed to salvage and get out with just a small loss (~$200 on two IRA accounts) very near yesterday's late-day lows.

     

    FPA had noted a trend to have up/down legs that ran 3-4 days and adding that in, exit with loss seemed the smart move.

     

    So was it? I think so. Futures ATM (05:44) suggest SPX $1232 at the open.

     

    Asian and European markets a bit mixed right now, so no telling where the futures will go. But the (SPY) moves in lock-step with futures ~99% of the time and (SPX) follows along with a small delay.

     

    USD has given back about half its gains of yesterday, per Sgxnifty charts. If the old equities/dollar inverse relationship is back, market up is indicated.

     

    Early futures actions don't always hold, but if they do, S&P will be up strongly again today.

     

    BTW, K202 posted a link to a chart yesterday and asked for comments. I'm not qualified, but you might have some thoughts.

     

    If you have the interest, pop over here

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    look at the chart he links to and drop a comment. I and all will appreciate having your thoughts on it.

     

    HardToLove
    2 Nov 2011, 05:53 AM Reply Like
  • DigDeep
    , contributor
    Comments (2633) | Send Message
     
    Thanks HTL
    The EUR move has had me scratching my head since early Oct.
    29 Oct 2011, 05:08 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6260) | Send Message
     
    I have some questions on the HO...

     

    Is the HO a leading indicator, and if it is, on average, how much of a time warning does it provide?

     

    If it's not a leading indicator, then I assume it would be useful to discriminate between a plunge and down movements associated with normal variability. If its the latter, I would think the HO would have some kind of reliable association with - 2 standard deviations from the current S&P average.

     

    How do you use it? If it triggers do you dump your longs and go short? Or is it more like how you would react to a death cross?

     

    I would think there would be a reciprocal version of the HO... I guess it could be called the Golden Blimp. Has anyone looked into that?
    29 Oct 2011, 05:16 PM Reply Like
  • Albertarocks
    , contributor
    Comments (2233) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Hi FPA. I'll try to answer those questions to the best of my ability.

     

    Officially the HO is not necessarily a leading nor a lagging indicator since it can issue signals before or after a significant top. Ideally it would issue a signal 'before' a top to the benefit of us all, but in most cases it is a week or more late. Mind you, one week before the flash crash and then again on the morning of the flash crash it came extremely close to issuing a signal. It was only shy by 2 or 4 new 52 week highs in one instance, and shy of the new lows in the other instance. In that regard, it was leading, but only because we were watching it like a hawk. Normally it is late.

     

    But we are monitoring the individual components of the HO on an ongoing basis here. I don't know of any other site that's doing what we're doing. In that regard it is definitely leading... insofar as that we know ahead of time when it's getting dangerously close to signaling. Personally, I certainly don't need to see any "official" signal in order to understand what it's telling us as the stresses build.

     

    The HO 'does not' have any specific correlation with any certain degree of standard deviation move in the S&P because the subsequent decline in the S&P has indeed been varied. But what follows is usually a significant move lower. "Significant" meaning between 5% and 40%. In fact, all it reveals to us is periods of time when the rising market is becoming more and more illusory and that a decline is likely. It offers no way of measuring the degree of that decline. To satisfy your curiosity about how big a decline could be expected, I'll simply point you to Dr. Robert McHugh's records showing what has happened in past instances. Here's the key excerpt, followed by the link where you can do further reading if interested. Please realize that this article is somewhat dated and therefore does not contain data between 2008 and today:

     

    =========
    If we define a crash as a 15% decline, of the previous 26 confirmed Hindenburg Omen signals, seven (27.0 percent ) were followed by financial system threatening, life-as-we-know-it threatening stock market crashes. Three (11.5 percent) more were followed by stock market selling panics (10% to 14.9% declines). Four more (15.4 percent) resulted in sharp declines (8% to 9.9% drops). Six (23.0 percent) were followed by meaningful declines (5% to 7.9%), four (15.4 percent) saw mild declines (2.0% to 4.9%), and two (7.7 percent) were failures, with subsequent declines of 2.0% or less. Put another way, there is a 27 percent probability that a stock market crash — the big one — will occur after we get a confirmed (more than one in a cluster) Hindenburg Omen. There is a 38.5 percent probability that at least a panic sell-off will occur. There is a 53.9 percent probability that a sharp decline greater than 8.0 % will occur, and there is a 76.9 percent probability that a stock market decline of at least 5 percent will occur. Only one out of roughly 13 times will this signal fail. http://bit.ly/s1cyY8
    ============

     

    How do you use it? That's up to each individual investor of course but at the very least it is a warning to take defensive measures. No doubt the reaction of each investor would be determined by a) whether or not he has any faith that the indicator actually has any value at all, and b) to what degree would he want to hedge his position? Would he get out of equities altogether? Would he elect to hold long positions in equities that he deems to be crash proof or recession proof? Or would he short the market? To each his own. Personally, I would have shorted the market before the HO has even issued a signal because as the HO begins to show very serious stresses within the market internals, I would then be looking for other signals that I would use as triggers.

     

    The HO would certainly issue a signal long before a death cross occurs because the death cross is typically about 3 months 'behind the times'. For example, the market is already currently working under a death cross scenario. I don't really know if 'anybody' really 'reacted' to the death cross that occurred on Aug. 11th, more than 3 months after the May high had occurred. And a lot has occurred since then, lol. So we certainly must not draw any comparison between these two totally different types of warnings.
    http://bit.ly/t4hnpZ

     

    And finally, because of what it is that the HO is measuring, there is no such thing as a reciprocal. Unless your question is something akin to "is there any such thing as an HO indicator that measures a bottom?", in which case I suppose it would be possible to alter all the rules... invert them so that they apply to a full blown bear market. I have my suspicions that it wouldn't be very valuable though, since the dynamics at tops and at bottoms are so very different. Tops generally tend to be more gentle "developments" while bottoms tend to be very sharp "events". There is also the factor that those with power and money do not want tops to happen but 'do want' bottoms to occur... and will expend great amounts of energy, money, borrowing, lending, derivative creation and abuse, as well as manipulation of every kind known to man, including abuse of media and data reporting, in order to achieve those ends. So I'd say no... there is no such thing as a reciprocal to what the HO is measuring.

     

    But to further explain why a there basically isn't really an 'opposite' to an HO signal: since it is measuring a very rare event (new highs and new lows occurring at the same time in a rising market), the opposite of this situation where 'several horses are pulling the wagon north and several horses are pulling it south', would be something more akin to "complete normalcy". What would we consider "complete normalcy"? Would it be a situation where the number of new highs and new lows are equal? That wouldn't be a good situation. Would it be a situation where new highs are outpacing new lows by about 4:1 or 8:1 or 20:1? That's difficult to say because in a true healthy bull market, the number of new highs "should be" outstripping new lows by a wide, wide margin. I suppose in a perfect world all issues would be achieving new 52 week highs every day and the bankers would all be in jail.

     

    I hope I didn't misunderstand any of your questions User (does anybody still call you that? lol) and that this effort helps somewhat.
    .
    29 Oct 2011, 06:54 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6260) | Send Message
     
    That's great Rocks. Thanks for taking the time to answer those questions.
    29 Oct 2011, 07:37 PM Reply Like
  • Albertarocks
    , contributor
    Comments (2233) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » You're welcome FPA. You certainly deserve it since you yourself offer so much to your friends in the SA community.
    29 Oct 2011, 08:54 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18495) | Send Message
     
    "I don't really know if 'anybody' really 'reacted' to the death cross that occurred on Aug. 11th, more than 3 months after the May high had occurred"

     

    I think those that might have reacted had already been blitzed by the SPX decline of 7/25 (7/22 close 1345.02) to 8/10 (close of $1120.76). Then we just went into that high-volatility trading range that lasted through 10/3 before we began this "Great New Bull Market Move" that will never, ever, in our worst nightmares, end. ;-))

     

    Why? Because the EZ has fixed everything ... Uh-oh! The German courts have poked their nose where the politicians and markets wished they wouldn't!

     

    HardToLove
    30 Oct 2011, 05:52 PM Reply Like
  • Wave4
    , contributor
    Comment (1) | Send Message
     
    Thanks AR for posting this update and chart on the HinOme. I suppose a second confirming manifestation could show up any day now. Greetings and be well and trade well, your friend W4.
    2 Nov 2011, 01:47 AM Reply Like
  • Albertarocks
    , contributor
    Comments (2233) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » High there Wave4. Please read my comment to theNorthern below. It applies to you exactly the same. Welcome to Seeking Alpha :-)

     

    EDIT: I just thought of a tip for you and for theNorthern. If you want to start to follow a few people for the TA aspect, I'd suggest you add Erik McCurdy to your "following" list. He's a great guy and has a real good perspective on the markets from his own unique TA angle:
    http://bit.ly/vJqzHY
    2 Nov 2011, 02:04 PM Reply Like
  • TheNorthern
    , contributor
    Comment (1) | Send Message
     
    Hey AR, I've followed your posts on daneric's and now here. Good work.
    2 Nov 2011, 05:18 AM Reply Like
  • Albertarocks
    , contributor
    Comments (2233) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Hi Northern. Thanks for the nice words and thanks for dropping in at this 'insta'. Welcome to Seeking Alpha. This is an awesome site, but obviously it's so very, very different from Danno's. If you hang around here long enough you'll notice that my style here is very different here than it is at Dan's. The reason for that is based upon how the owners of the various sites treat their own home. Think of it this way:

     

    In my past life I used to be a construction superintendent where I was in charge of the on-site construction of many different types of construction projects. Those project included this gorgeous 3-tower residential project high on a hill in west Calgary: http://bit.ly/shnlFw/ Yup... I built that complex, lol.

     

    My philosophy of managing a construction site included my insistence that sub-trades treated the project as their 'work space' and as such I demanded that they show respect toward themselves and toward the other trades by cleaning up their messes on a regular and constant basis. A superintendent who ever made the mistake of letting his site start to look like a garbage dump soon found that all the sub-trades were more than happy to jump on that bandwagon and treat it like a garbage dump. I 'never' allowed that to happen. It's the same thing with websites. Seeking Alpha is like a well run construction site, where respect for others is a top priority. Unfortunately, our friend Danno (god bless him) is running a site where there isn't even a superintendent on-site most of the time. So naturally it deteriorates into a garbage dump from time to time. Having said that, you know that the vast majority of contributors there are wonderful people, almost all of whom I consider to be a friend. It's those trolls who need to be dealt with, lol.

     

    Anyway, explore SA and use it to your advantage. Once you start following people you like, you'll be able to know when they've published a new article or comment. But other than the occasional article, generally speaking this site is not a TA site.
    2 Nov 2011, 02:02 PM Reply Like
  • Albertarocks
    , contributor
    Comments (2233) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » This weekend a friend of mine posted this short piece by the great John Cleese. For some reason I found it particularly funny, especially since it was written with the great wit and sarcasm that Cleese is so well known for. I thought some of you might enjoy it on a Monday morning:
    http://bit.ly/sTJQhS/

     

    On the HO front, there's nothing going on that is particularly interesting so I thought I'd just drop off a rambling comment so that at least you know I'm still here (and monitoring), lol.

     

    Of minor interest is the fact that all through the remarkable rally that started on Oct. 4th, the number of new 52 week highs and lows have been noticeably 'unremarkable'. But that's not to suggest that we should be 'expecting' any huge number of new 52 week highs at this time, considering that the markets are well below the highs set back in early May of this year. The number of new 52 week lows have also been rather tame of late. The only thing of note is that although the market has surged very strongly overall since early Oct., the numbers of new highs are not all that much greater than the number of new lows. In other words, although the numbers are not huge by any stretch, even though there aren't yet that many horses that are making great efforts to pull the markets north, there are still a few that are still trying to pull it south. It's nothing of importance really, just an observation that interests me somewhat.

     

    For example, as of this moment the number of new highs and new lows that have been attained today are 36 and 12 respectively. If nothing else, it certainly stands out as being a far cry from the days just before the flash crash in May of '10 when we were seeing 400-600 new 52 week highs being recorded nearly every day. As a matter of further interest, today the markets are still higher than they were back then. So with the markets being higher today than they were 18 months ago but recording very anemic new 52 week highs, at least we know that things aren't quite as rosy as they were back then.

     

    Of course, in no way do these dynamics help us to determine which way the market will be heading in the weeks ahead but they're certainly worth keeping our eye on. As a final note, I just want to remind everyone that it's entirely possible that the markets could really fall off here WITHOUT seeing a new HO signal. My apologies for yelling that word, but I just want to make sure nobody is relying on the HO in any way as some sort of 'safety net' or 'comforter'. As in the past, if we see a warning signal, great. But if not, as long as we are getting some valuable information simply by monitoring the inner workings of the HO, it's very much worth the effort. I hope all of you have a great week in the markets.
    .
    7 Nov 2011, 12:28 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18495) | Send Message
     
    That was a great article by Cleese. I notice that he was kind enough to leave us North American inhabitants out of the discussion.

     

    I'd hate to be the object of his humor, given our recent behavior.

     

    Have to appreciate the small breaks we get - no telling what we'll suffer at his hands going forward.

     

    Maybe he omitted us out of compassion!

     

    HardToLove
    7 Nov 2011, 12:49 PM Reply Like
  • DigDeep
    , contributor
    Comments (2633) | Send Message
     
    lol AR thanks for the Cleese link
    7 Nov 2011, 02:17 PM Reply Like
  • Albertarocks
    , contributor
    Comments (2233) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Haha... perhaps. But Churchill wasn't so kind. He once said "Americans will always do the right thing... once they've tried everything else."

     

    My favorite quote by Churchill of all time was this one:

     

    Upon being accused of being drunk by Dame Astor (Waldorf Astoria), Churchill replied: "Yes madam. I am drunk. But in the morning I'll be sober and you'll still be ugly."
    7 Nov 2011, 12:55 PM Reply Like
  • Albertarocks
    , contributor
    Comments (2233) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Something of interest is happening today and it would have to be viewed as being positive. The markets seems to be rising on nothing but helium, in the face of the worst financial state of affairs the world has ever seen. The whippiness (is that even a wird?) caused by the drama out of Europe is just excruciating for everybody, bull and bear alike. The market internals are certainly not very strong by any measure. But from the perspective of the HO, for the first time in several weeks the number of new 52 week highs are actually finally improving. Today, so far, we've seen the market generate 70 new highs. This is good news, not from the perspective that it's approaching the range required for the HO to work... but that they're rising at all. We haven't seen over 40 for quite a while I don't think. And the number of new lows at the present is only 15.

     

    These numbers are all in the "general ballpark" where the HO will be on edge, but far, far from being anything even remotely resembling dangerous. We've got all the danger we need in Europe and right here in our own back yards. We already know the market is very dangerous, but who knows... maybe the dollar will continue lower after all and the S&P will head toward 1600? Just the fact that the market is starting to generate some new highs is a positive for sure. Perhaps next week we'll start to see numbers in the 150 range or higher for the new highs? That too would put the HO at ease. Further, it seems likely that the HO is will remain in good working order going forward, even if the markets were to sell off somewhat. So far... so good :-)
    .
    8 Nov 2011, 03:44 PM Reply Like
  • Mark Bern, CFA
    , contributor
    Comments (5243) | Send Message
     
    "The whippiness (is that even a wird?)"

     

    I don't know. What's a wird?
    8 Nov 2011, 03:46 PM Reply Like
  • Albertarocks
    , contributor
    Comments (2233) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Don't ya know? It's those things we use for tockin. You put a whole lot of 'em together to make a senence like this won.

     

    Interestingly, the number of new highs came in at 78 and 85 would have been required today. The lows came in at 15 (85 required). So we might be in a transition stage where we're about to see the new highs start to escalate while the new lows could remain quite anemic. Nothing negative from the HO today. If anything, what we saw today was positive, with good strong market internals as seen in other types of measurements.
    8 Nov 2011, 04:20 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18495) | Send Message
     
    "Don't ya know? It's those things we use for tockin. You put a whole lot of 'em together to make a senence like this won".

     

    Well, I wasn't going to call you on your spelling since I recall that y'all are "Southern Canadian".

     

    It should have been "wurd"! "Wird" sounds like a pinch-nosed Yankee accent! ;-))

     

    From the middle of N.C.,
    HardToLove
    8 Nov 2011, 05:00 PM Reply Like
  • Albertarocks
    , contributor
    Comments (2233) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Haha. Who do ya think yer foolin'? Yer not hard to love. "Wurd" is how my daughter spels it. Caint seem to git the child to undirstand the diffrence. Ain't that ironic though, I are also from the middle of North Calgary.

     

    I'll bet you 'do' have a dandy accent though HTL :-)
    8 Nov 2011, 06:43 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18495) | Send Message
     
    Naw, I'm a transplanted Arizona "cowboy".

     

    When I moved out here in 1975, some thought I was a "Yankee" just because they couldn't figure the "blend" that makes up the desert southwest drawl (which I have very little of - dad was military and AZ was just where we visited, mostly, so I don't have much of it).

     

    They were shocked to learn that AZ is further south than N.C.

     

    And they were relieved too! Back then they hadn't experienced the influx from the north yet.

     

    HardToLove
    9 Nov 2011, 06:56 AM Reply Like
  • lower98th
    , contributor
    Comments (1420) | Send Message
     
    On the other hand, living in FL has proven insufficient to banish an entrenched southern accent from eastern NC, where "Bill" or "Dan" is pronounced with two syllables. And every new acquaintence begins not with "what is your name?" but "Where are you from?"

     

    PS: Atlantic Beach is the best beach.
    9 Nov 2011, 07:52 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18495) | Send Message
     
    "where "Bill" or "Dan" is pronounced with two syllables"

     

    LoL! I remember that "two syllables" well. It took just a little while for my ear to adjust so that I responded when my name was called.

     

    HardToLove
    9 Nov 2011, 08:29 AM Reply Like
  • Albertarocks
    , contributor
    Comments (2233) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » That is actually very, very funny stuff from my perspective. Thanks for sharing that. Nobody has 'ever' called me Dan with two syllables but a girl from Chicago called me Danny with a hard 'a', as in 'lake'. That was even funny to me.
    9 Nov 2011, 12:15 PM Reply Like
  • Mark Bern, CFA
    , contributor
    Comments (5243) | Send Message
     
    Rocks - I just wanted you to know how much I appreciate that photo up top! It provides much needed comfort for those of us who peer at the markets most of the day.
    9 Nov 2011, 09:25 AM Reply Like
  • Albertarocks
    , contributor
    Comments (2233) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I'm glad you liked the change of pace MB. I got the idea after misinterpreting a good comment from HTL so he gets credit for the disappearance of the blimp. I've changed the picture from time to time and I'm gonna take a chance and put up a different one for a day or two (because the only people who come here are friends of mine and I trust them). This is a special person in my life but I dare not say much more. She's a whisker shy of being a 6 footer. You'll know.
    9 Nov 2011, 12:21 PM Reply Like
  • Mark Bern, CFA
    , contributor
    Comments (5243) | Send Message
     
    Does she play volleyball? My alma mater, Nebraska, is always looking for good talent on the court!
    9 Nov 2011, 01:58 PM Reply Like
  • Albertarocks
    , contributor
    Comments (2233) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Believe it or not, she was a nationally ranked swimmer at 15 (Jr. Nationals) and 4 years later was destined for the Olympics in Athens as a rower. (All rowers are very tall). Unfortunately an untimely back injury ended that dream. The day after she won gold at the Henley Regatta in the singles sculls (she actually won 5 golds but the singles was the biggie), which cemented her status as #1 in the world on that day (again, in the Junior ranks), the University of Michigan phoned me personally "the very next day" on my unlisted phone number and started to try to woo me over. Can you believe that?

     

    My phone just rang off the hook from American universities. I was stunned, I'll be honest. The offer from Michigan was just off the charts... so good that we didn't believe them. I hate to say it, but other Canadian athletes (especially baseball players and hockey players) warned us that the promises made were usually very different than those kept). So we were somewhat leery about it all. In fact, Oregon State actually flew her down there on the eve of a big basketball game and showed her "see, all these student will be cheering for you if you'll just row for us". In the end, she graduated from University of Victoria where the Canadian national rowing team is based. I'm still not gonna tell anybody who she is is though.
    .
    9 Nov 2011, 03:11 PM Reply Like
  • Albertarocks
    , contributor
    Comments (2233) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » MB, one other thing that might be of interest on the topic of height. To this day it is still claimed that the Canadian Mens 8 that won the gold at the games in Barcelona was the fast team of rowers ever assembled. The average height of those 8 guys was 6'8". I've met 4 of them, including Brian Seivert who was 6'10". And yes, she also played volleyball. She was an absolute standout in rugby as well. Looks can be deceiving I guess. That young lady was (is) tough as nails... very, very strong physically. I heard she has a brother. Maybe I'll post his picture some day if I can find one. He was one heck of an athlete as well, so I'm told.
    9 Nov 2011, 03:21 PM Reply Like
  • Mark Bern, CFA
    , contributor
    Comments (5243) | Send Message
     
    Rocks - She sounds like quite the athlete! Congrats!
    9 Nov 2011, 08:21 PM Reply Like
  • Albertarocks
    , contributor
    Comments (2233) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Thanks MB. Yeah I have to admit (lol) in all honesty, she's the best all-round athlete I've ever met. Nationally ranked in 3 different sports (water polo was the other one) and one time she was approached by a Dutch man (from Holland, not Canada) who was here watching the world cup of bobsleigh. He looked at her physique and flat out approached her and said "So what is your sport?" When she told him, he tried to recruit her to do bobsleigh because she was so big and strong. He said she was an absolute natural because she would be a strong pusher who could also provide some "ballast" to help propel the sleigh down faster. She was interested but she was also in the peak of her rowing career and couldn't fit it in. But after all was said and done, she got a wonderful education out of the deal and is now a consultant to the health care industry in both Canada and the USA. She's a good girl. Loves her dad a lot.
    9 Nov 2011, 09:33 PM Reply Like
  • Mark Bern, CFA
    , contributor
    Comments (5243) | Send Message
     
    That last part is the most important! I've been blessed with two great kids as well. A little younger, but proud of them both.
    9 Nov 2011, 10:08 PM Reply Like
  • Albertarocks
    , contributor
    Comments (2233) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » You got that right dad. The last part is the most important. Congrats my friend.
    9 Nov 2011, 10:30 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6260) | Send Message
     
    She has that lovely Irish look. I thought you were from Canada?
    9 Nov 2011, 02:07 PM Reply Like
  • Albertarocks
    , contributor
    Comments (2233) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Lol. Yeah, she has that Irish look for a reason. Someone told me her name is Erin. Funny that!
    9 Nov 2011, 03:16 PM Reply Like
  • John Lounsbury
    , contributor
    Comments (3999) | Send Message
     
    AR - - -

     

    I'm disappointed you took down the picture of Erin M. I guess you have to spread the spotlight around.
    9 Nov 2011, 05:18 PM Reply Like
  • Albertarocks
    , contributor
    Comments (2233) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Sorry about that John. A couple of 225 pounders from the same football team. But her brother is a pretty neat kid too... he's the one looking at you. He'd feel bad if he was left out. He played baseball as well and hit a grand slam one time on Mother's Day that would have gone out of Yankee Stadium. I'm not kidding. It was a pretty neat thing to have witnessed. I hope readers don't mind my taking a bit of license here and showing something other than the blimp. It's just a change of pace I guess. More nice pictures to follow. I remember you liked the relaxing hot tub picture so I'll put that one back up at some point, lol.
    9 Nov 2011, 05:26 PM Reply Like
  • John Lounsbury
    , contributor
    Comments (3999) | Send Message
     
    AR - - -

     

    Back in the day I hit a couple of HRs over 370 and 380 markers on walls at least seven feet high. The only problem was that I probably had 3 or 4 strike outs for every hit and had a BA under .200.

     

    I had a great arm too. Was tried as a pitcher several times. Batting practice pitching went well, except the hitters thought I didn't give them enough of a chance. The few times I was tried in a game I never finished an inning. Giving up hits was not the problem - giving up walks followed by multiple wild pitches got me the hook.

     

    I did much better later in life when I got to slow pitch softball.

     

    None of my kids ever played baseball or softball - they concentrated on soccer and basketball. And I didn't ever try to suggest they try baseball (or softball). I was afraid to find out what genetics might prove.
    9 Nov 2011, 10:26 PM Reply Like
  • Albertarocks
    , contributor
    Comments (2233) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Those were great hits John. I never did hit one. My dad was a fantastic ball player, pitching baseball until he was 54. One time when in his forties (44 I'm pretty sure) he pitched a no hitter and hit the game's only home run in a 1-0 win over a visiting team of young fellows from Montana. I was a good base stealer but not a very good hitter. So basically I just passed the genes from my dad to my son. Actually my son was also tied with one other guy as the two fastest guys in the league (when he was 18) which was pretty hard to believe since he was a 215 pounder at the time. A fast big guy which is fairly rare. So he stole 22 bases and missed the league record by 2. He could have had 28 or 29 fairly easily, but as the season was nearing an end the team stopped running him as they were nearing the league championship. Which they won. But I have admit, you caught me off guard when you said you played ball. That would have never dawned on me. I like you even more now, lol.

     

    I had an uncle (one of my mom's brothers) who was an amateur boxer in Detroit. Good old Uncle Jim. His record was 29-1. Lost his last fight and hung 'em up, lol. He was a small guy, last name Murphy ;-)

     

    Geez... the Hang Seng is down 4.5% as I type this.
    9 Nov 2011, 11:37 PM Reply Like
  • Albertarocks
    , contributor
    Comments (2233) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Well guess what? Today's move lower was so violent that it has switched off the HO due to the moving average issue. But one would think that after a drubbing like we saw today, the market should bounce tomorrow. If so, the HO could be switched back on again in the days ahead, lol. As you can see in the updated chart (if you click the link below the chart at the top of the page) the action of 50 days ago strongly supports the HO coming back on stream in a day or two.

     

    And as for the new highs and new lows, today the NYSE generated 30 new highs and 39 new lows. Both numbers are too low to excite the HO but the fact that they are equal shouldn't be lost on us.
    9 Nov 2011, 05:16 PM Reply Like
  • Kingsdyke
    , contributor
    Comments (21) | Send Message
     
    Hi Rocks, Just catching up on your comments. So much wit and wisdom in equal measure. Based on Dr Robert McHugh's records, where do you think we stand today?
    On a lighter note, I too am a great fan of John Cleese. My particular fav is the lumberjack song from monty python.
    http://bit.ly/ti28m5
    It's even good in german.
    http://bit.ly/valPjO
    enjoy
    9 Nov 2011, 07:14 PM Reply Like
  • Albertarocks
    , contributor
    Comments (2233) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Hi KD. Geez, I'm not quite sure how to answer that question. McHugh's records really don't offer any guidance about what we might be in for. I kind of have my doubts the HO is going to issue a signal this time anyway. Ideally it would have issued a signal back in May but did not. Having said that, I don't think there's much doubt that the credit crisis in Europe is going to continue to cause a whole lot of deflation insofar as it will surely cause the disappearance of money right off the face of the earth.

     

    Since 95% (at least) of all money on the planet was in fact 'loaned into existence', then by the reversal of that process, defaults and bankruptcies cause currency to just disappear right back into the imaginary void that they were birthed from in the first place. That's what appears to be gaining steam in Europe. So based on that premis, one would conclude that the Euro should soar. But I don't think it will, at least not relative to the world's reserve currency which of course is the American buck. In the case of the Euro, there is so much more at stake. I think questions are even being asked these days about whether or not the Euro is even a viable currency in its present form. I don't think it is, not as long as the Euro-Union includes so many broken little piggies.

     

    So if the USD is about to soar as I believe it is, then deflation should hit the USA as well. I think that as long as Europe is going to have to deal with the credit crisis and face the music regarding decades of drunken spending, the USD will be considered as the safe haven. Along with perhaps the Yen and gold. Eventually the American dollar will also have to pay the piper but not for quite a while I don't think. Years perhaps. I don't know for certain. I just try to measure such things and then write about my findings from time to time. I'm no guru that's for sure. The FED and the IMF (same group of oligarchs) have everybody so mesmerized with the illusion that they are all-powerful that it sounds almost blasphemous to suggest the markets could 'ever' fall. They certainly can, and if it turns out that deflation is just over the horizon, that's exactly what they will do. The trouble is that I don't know for sure whether or not deflation is in fact what's coming. I wish I knew with certainty. If I did, you and I would both become very rich, lol.

     

    Haha, yeah that lumberjack skit was pretty funny. I'd forgotten all about it. Too bad it portrays the Mounties in such a bad light though. Mind you, I've never seen them portrayed as anything other than cartoon characters. They're actually nothing like that in the real world, although relative to big city cops they're pretty nice people. Hope you're doing well :-)
    9 Nov 2011, 10:21 PM Reply Like
  • jhooper
    , contributor
    Comments (6202) | Send Message
     
    " it sounds almost blasphemous to suggest the markets could 'ever' fall. "

     

    The expression, "economics is the religion of modernity" comes to mind.

     

    Powerful gov always seems to need an advocate. For the tribal chief it was the medicine man who would shake his bag of bones and say, "you better do what the chief says or the great beyond will destroy you". Fuedal Europe had the "church", where richly glad church leaders would shake their fine robes and say "you better do what the king says or the great beyond will destroy you". Now we have PHDs in economics who shake their complicated graphs and formulas and say, "you better do what the gov tells you or deflation will destroy you".

     

    Second verse, same as the first. This fraud has been going on for thousands of years. I guess the real trick is to recognize it and find some way to take advantage of it. As much as your conscience will allow, that is.
    10 Nov 2011, 08:29 AM Reply Like
  • DigDeep
    , contributor
    Comments (2633) | Send Message
     
    AR
    Can't imagine EUR strength if there's a big liquidity pump in EZland.
    Your suggestion of strength is a great reminder that things aren't always packaged with a bow....deflation would seem a strong possibility and maybe best not to be short EUR...thanks for the heads up

     

    If there's any band alumni out there - my turn to brag.
    My econ major son @ Ohio U. (v OSU) is the tall cymbals 'dude' is on the left. This you tube went viral w/ 4.2 mil hits to date...O.U. Marching 110 on display - trying to one up the 'best damn band in the land' up the street in buckeye town.
    http://bit.ly/w4kqnT

     

    and then my HS Jr soccer girl.......

     

    Young people thinking about 'not wanting kids' are missing more than they know.

     

    Anyway, the econ major 'dude' will be looking for interviews (JL!!) haha - it's true but just kidding around...had him lined up with MF Gl......
    9 Nov 2011, 11:56 PM Reply Like
  • Mark Bern, CFA
    , contributor
    Comments (5243) | Send Message
     
    My son is a band guy, too. He plays a mean trumpet. His major is just physics, though. He didn't get those genes from me; his mom has a doctorate in music (conductor). He did get a running gene from me. He's fast (400 meters) and has good endurance (cross country).

     

    My daughter is the drama queen. She also does make-up tutorials on YouTube. So far, I still have the lead in followers. But I suspect come next summer (when she has more time) she'll bury me. She did 3 summers of acting at the American Shakespeare Center (youth program). She' just a sophomore in HS so there will be lots of plays for me to attend. She's also on the dance crew. She can't not be in front of a crowd. But she's well grounded and knows what's not appropriate. And she's not afraid to let someone else know the difference either.
    10 Nov 2011, 12:49 AM Reply Like
  • Albertarocks
    , contributor
    Comments (2233) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » OMG! Holy smokes, that's the neatest thing I've ever seen a University band do. I didn't even know they did stuff like that. Needless to say I've never been to a sporting event in the USA except a softball tournament in Coeur 'd Alene when I was a tyke. So I've never seen anything like that. I mean that was totally awesome. I've saved the link to my favorites and will send it to my kids. Thanks for sharing that DD. That totally rocked.
    10 Nov 2011, 01:06 AM Reply Like
  • DigDeep
    , contributor
    Comments (2633) | Send Message
     
    Thanks. We need successes for our kids coming out of school(s)
    So back to those interv....(haha) and back to the real world....

     

    What I'm trying to figure out is the effect of printing/monetization in EUland on U.S. equities.
    It should drive the EUR lower - USD higher and hence U.S. equities lower. Seems too simplistic...must be too simplistic.

     

    Per JPM (excerpt from http://bit.ly/rxtSJr

     

    "of the 1.1 trillion Euros extended to European banks and governments (through sovereign/covered bond purchases and repo), 970 billion has been given by the ECB. The modest remainder has come from the IMF and EU countries themselves (e.g. fiscal transfers)".

     

    Seems to me liquidity pump and inflation being served up and the ultimate answer for the EU.
    10 Nov 2011, 10:09 AM Reply Like
  • DigDeep
    , contributor
    Comments (2633) | Send Message
     
    EUR/USD analysis
    http://bit.ly/vxTfaQ
    simple?
    10 Nov 2011, 12:06 PM Reply Like
  • Albertarocks
    , contributor
    Comments (2233) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Just a little reminder here that the market is still producing a relatively low number of new highs and new lows. For example, at the present time today (85 minutes of trading to go), there are 38 new 52 week highs and 25 new lows. The numbers are obviously not great in scale but they are more or less equal. I'm not suggesting we read too much into it, but it's sure got my radar beeping at least. It's definitely time to be careful out there. Hedges if you're long would be very prudent in my opinion. Stay safe.
    15 Nov 2011, 02:39 PM Reply Like
  • Augustus
    , contributor
    Comments (2350) | Send Message
     
    Look at the NH - NL data. There has been quite a long string of negative days. With AAPL no longer being the large cap rocket for the indexes, they will seem to get heavier and heavier.
    16 Nov 2011, 12:36 PM Reply Like
  • Albertarocks
    , contributor
    Comments (2233) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I'm not sure what you mean by 'negative' days Augustus but the AAPL issue is very dear to my heart. How accurate you are in that assessment. I wrote an article on that topic in September. I have no idea if you'd care to read that one but if so, you can find it here:
    http://seekingalpha.co...
    16 Nov 2011, 03:01 PM Reply Like
  • Augustus
    , contributor
    Comments (2350) | Send Message
     
    If NH - NL is less than zero, I consider it a Negative Day. For there to be a general market advance, there should be more NH than NL. It is a different way of assessing, but similar to Advance - Decline. A moving average of the NH - NL being above zero is a pretty good technical charting tool. The mo-mo stuff is doing well in that case.
    19 Nov 2011, 10:54 AM Reply Like
  • Albertarocks
    , contributor
    Comments (2233) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Thanks Augustus. I had misinterpreted your comment slightly. I was thinking you were saying "NH and NL data". I didn't grasp that what you meant was New Highs "minus" New Lows. You were (and still are) absolutely correct, there have indeed been a string of days where more new lows are being generated. That's a negative for the markets for sure. Thanks for taking the time to straighten me out. It's nice to see you again :-)
    19 Nov 2011, 01:11 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (8712) | Send Message
     
    Mona Lisa must have seen the stock market news!!!!

     

    Maybe if we all looked in the mirror we would notice a similarity. LOL
    17 Nov 2011, 10:46 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10662) | Send Message
     
    Rocks: Are you tracking the EZ bond runs? Seems today was possibly the beginning of something significant. Now France looks like toast, to me, and will soon be downgraded (which should have happened around the time the US was downgraded).

     

    The following link to a two part article I found to be as excellent as it was depressing; chalk full of charts you'll drink in like a cold Molson on a hot day (if you ever have one up where up live!) Part 2 was most shocking to study those charts:

     

    http://bit.ly/syfh50

     

    BTW: During my senior year at North Allegheny H. S., north of Pittsburgh, my ERA for the season was 0.23, I believe still a state record. Having also been a Western Pennsylvania WPIAL volleyball champion, I appreciate the volleyball commentary, greatly.

     

    These athletic genes I got from my pop, who once was a track star for Shaker Hieghts H. S., east of Cleveland. He liked to tell the story of his once racing against Jesse Owens. The story went like this:

     

    Yes...I once raced against Jesse Owens. We approached the starting blocks at the same time. Got down in the blocks at the same time. The gun went off, and we left the starting blocks at the same time. And that's the end of the story.

     

    My mom's brother was also racing in that race. What's a long ago forgotten fact was that there was a runner faster than Jesse Owens in that race. But, he was legally blind, ran out of his lane and was disqualified. Pop placed second.

     

    I had 13 tryouts, and one offer from the Baltimore Orioles, which I turned down. Perhaps the dumbest mistake I ever made.
    17 Nov 2011, 10:20 PM Reply Like
  • Albertarocks
    , contributor
    Comments (2233) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Hi Maya, haven't seen you for a while. I haven't been following the actual data on European bonds as much as the general story. The most shocking thing I've ever heard of was the fact that the "voluntary" (as in with a gun to their heads) agreement by Greek bond holders to lose 50% of their investments was the reason the CDSs didn't trigger. Like, what did they buy that insurance for then? It leaves no doubt that those who sold that insurance (probably Goldman) can't afford to pay up. To my way of thinking, there could be no clearer sign that the scam is up and that the vast majority of countries on this planet are in for a world of hurt for the rest of this decade. Wow! I guess we all knew the day would come when the piper demanded his pay and I think that day is here.

     

    Yeah, judging by your picture I was envisioning you to be a big dude. Your picture reminds me of two brothers who were very good friends of mine when I lived in Lethbridge. Went to high school with them. They were big tough guys, real good football players both, and two of the friendliest guys a person could ever hope to meet. One wouldn't have wanted to fight with either of them though, although they weren't the type start anything either. When we were about 19 years of age, I saw a group of 6 local cowboys come into the bar we used to hang out at one night, for the soul purpose of beating up the 'long haired hippy college guys'. It became a rather nasty brawl that went outside and man those cowboys took a beating. Did they ever pick the wrong crowd to pick on, lol.

     

    Geez, I'm pleased to hear that you guys were athletes as well. Sports are so good for the soul and for character building. Some of the players that my son played with ended up playing for US colleges (baseball). Holy smokes! That's about all I can say when hearing that your pop ran with Jesse Owens. That's incredible. Congrats. Were you here when I flashed a couple of photos of my little athletes? I don't think you were. In any event, yeah, I think the European bond situation has no solution except to undergo a pretty sizeable writedown which of course would make a whole lot of money disappear permanently back into the imaginary void that they were created from in the first place. I suppose logically that would be a very deflationary event that should make the Euro become scarce. That should make the Euro surge theoretically, but at the same time I think it would bring on so much fear that the US dollar should benefit. I'm having a bit of a conundrum about that currency relationship to be honest. I'm short the Euro but wondering if the Euro could surge. I suppose logically it should, but I don't think it will. Conflict, lol.

     

    On the HO front, there are more new lows being created these days than new highs, which probably wouldn't surprise anybody. I'm starting to think the HO isn't even going to issue a signal and I wouldn't advise waiting for one.
    18 Nov 2011, 12:42 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10662) | Send Message
     
    AR: Rats. I guess I missed the shots of your young-uns!

     

    Reason why I'm paying attention to bond spreads and yields in Europe and some surrounding EZ countries is because so many have or are approaching 7% on the ten year, which by most measures is unsustainable.
    18 Nov 2011, 08:15 PM Reply Like
  • John Lounsbury
    , contributor
    Comments (3999) | Send Message
     
    Hello Maya - - -

     

    Interesting post tonight by Art Patten on German bunds: http://bit.ly/rYmzbq
    18 Nov 2011, 12:31 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10662) | Send Message
     
    Thanks, John. Please see my above comment to Rocks. Thanks for the link!

     

    BTW: Though I don't do much commenting on your website, I do go there to read up on the news more and more. In fact, I hardly read SA articles anymore, because so much of it is noise, pumping some stock I have no interest in, or just a bunch of top five or ten lists that I find untradeable to act upon becuase if it appears on SA, the news has already been acted upon.

     

    I'm pretty specific in what I look for to read, and use several wire service type sites to glean stuff before it hits the major MSM networks.

     

    Loving Jeff Miller's work, and of course yours, as always. Jeff's weekly column has become a Sunday morn must read for me.
    18 Nov 2011, 08:25 PM Reply Like
  • Albertarocks
    , contributor
    Comments (2233) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Just a quick update here. The HO is really giving us some quirky signals these days. I have no idea whether it will work again or not, but yesterday there were so many more new lows than new highs that it gave me a bit of a tingly. Today the numbers for the new highs and new lows were 48 and 92 respectively. Keep in mind that 80 are required (approximately, it varies a bit each day). However, at the end of trading today the HO has switched off due to the moving average issue, but not by much. The price of the NYSE closed just below the price of 50 days ago, so the HO has been invalidated as an indicator until it switches on again. These are Jim Meikka's rules and I guess we have to honour them. Tomorrow the price level required to turn the HO back on rises somewhat, so the market had better put in a bit of a surge if we want to see this indicator come back on-line. It's entirely possible it will do just that. You can click the live and updated link at the top of the page (beneath the chart) at any time to see what it looks like. Here also:
    http://bit.ly/srUr5f

     

    Although the HO switched off near the end of the day, the message is still pretty clear. There are twice as many new lows being generated as new highs. Had the market generated more highs today, the HO could well have issued an initial signal. Had it not switched off, lol. But we're in the ballpark.

     

    So the bottom line is that we would be well advised to have some hedges in place if we're holding long positions. It's so difficult to judge whether or not the market will bounce tomorrow, but indications appear to be favoring that outcome for now. But who knows what drama will come out of Europe at any time in the next few hours? Nothing to panic about, but plenty of warning to be careful.
    .
    22 Nov 2011, 05:47 PM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10612) | Send Message
     
    AR: Seasons greetings to you and yours. Thanks for the update.
    22 Nov 2011, 05:56 PM Reply Like
  • Albertarocks
    , contributor
    Comments (2233) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Thanks Mr. Fergie. Happy Thanksgiving to you and your family. Give 'am all a hug for me.
    22 Nov 2011, 06:20 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18495) | Send Message
     
    I've been so tied up I almost forgot - happy holidays to you and yours!

     

    Let's hope that that the EZ contagion is contained - I doubt it though.

     

    HardToLove
    23 Nov 2011, 04:16 PM Reply Like
  • Mark Bern, CFA
    , contributor
    Comments (5243) | Send Message
     
    Happy Thanksgiving to all!
    23 Nov 2011, 05:06 PM Reply Like
  • Albertarocks
    , contributor
    Comments (2233) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Just some Tuesday afternoon amusement :-)

     

    This is kind of what it's like trying to short the market when the FED doesn't want you to:
    http://yhoo.it/sQ3iLg

     

    And this is a guy who I consider to be one hell of a trooper. Talk about focus and determination. And all the while, he disguised his condition so well that nobody even realized he was a bit tipsy. I'm pretty sure his rudder is jammed to the right though, judging by his tendency to drift to starboard, lol:
    http://bit.ly/tq286Q
    29 Nov 2011, 05:36 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18495) | Send Message
     
    I liked the "trooper" one a lot.

     

    I have never seen anybody that drunk before.

     

    I hope he (and everyone else he encountered) survived the experience.

     

    HardToLove
    29 Nov 2011, 06:23 PM Reply Like
  • Albertarocks
    , contributor
    Comments (2233) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Although I laugh pretty darned hard at his antics, the one thing that keeps me from enjoying that video to it's fullest potential is the nagging thought that maybe he's impaired with something else, besides his beloved beer. For his sake I sure hope not but his tendency to fall backward and to the right leads me to believe that maybe there was some other substance involved. I sure hope not. Other than that little nagging question and my feeling of concern for him... that is one funny clip. I actually wanted to add these thoughts after I'd posted those videos but my time had run out.

     

    My brother and I used to do the escalator thing all the time just for laughs. But we had some power. That girl in the video... she's just about run out of gas. I was just waiting for something like that to happen, like in a cartoon. Lucky thing she had two arms because without those babies there's no way she would have reached the top of that mountain. No wonder the camera lady was laughing so hard.
    29 Nov 2011, 06:45 PM Reply Like
  • Albertarocks
    , contributor
    Comments (2233) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » With that remarkable opening we saw this morning, the Hindenberg Omen has suddenly sprung back to life. As evidenced by the price action of 50 days ago, it also seems like it should remain on stream for quite some time. So with the new found party atmosphere on Wall Street, now that all of Europe's debt problems must have been solved forever, and in consideration that this is the last day of November, let's move the party to a new location. A new insta has been started here: http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    I never have broadcast anything about the HO anywhere else on Seeking Alpha, and don't plan to. I only tell my original friends (that would be 'you') about it. So if there are any other people you know of who might find the topic interesting or valuable, please pass the new link forward. See you on the flip side.
    30 Nov 2011, 12:20 PM Reply Like
  • Albertarocks
    , contributor
    Comments (2233) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » This insta continues in the next page, which is found here:
    http://bit.ly/o0FAH3
    14 Dec 2011, 11:55 PM Reply Like
Full index of posts »
Latest Followers
Posts by Themes
Instablogs are Seeking Alpha's free blogging platform customized for finance, with instant set up and exposure to millions of readers interested in the financial markets. Publish your own instablog in minutes.