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Albertarocks
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I was born and raised in southern Alberta and graduated from the department of Structural Engineering Technology at S.A.I.T. in Calgary. My background is mainly in construction management although I spent 10 years selling real estate where I gained some very valuable knowledge about how... More
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  • Hindenburg Omen Blog - Heading Into The New Year 139 comments
    Apr 24, 2012 1:16 AM

    This is the continuation of a discussion on the Hindenburg Omen which was originated by our friend John Lounsbury over 2 full years ago. Again, we offer a great big "thank you" to John for having maintained this series of instas for over a year and a half, until I finally learned how to create one by myself and take this endeavor off his hands.

    The preceding blog can be read here. For further reference, or to read about actual Hindenburg events we have covered including the near misses which occurred in the "week before" and the "day of" the flash crash, the entire series began with John's original post which can be found here.


    ---------------------Mystery City.... is Vancouver-----------------------

    ============

    The Hindenberg Omen is once again back in operation. However, as evidenced by the price action of 50 days ago, it would appear that the HO might be in danger of going off-line yet again should the NYSE head lower in the last few days of December and the first week of January. Such action would cause the 50 day moving average to turn lower around Jan. 9th or so. Perhaps sooner if the NYSE were to head sharply lower before that date. For quick reference, here's a 'still picture' of how we measure the all-important 50 day moving average. Feel free to click the link at the bottom of the chart for a live and updated version:

    (click to enlarge)
    Live and Updated Version

    We will now pick up where we left off, since the odds are very high that if/when the HO issues another signal, it will almost assuredly be something we dare not ignore. The main thing to keep in mind is that due to its rather strict requirements, any signal from the HO will likely be issued somewhat late. "Late" being a relative term in this case. It may seem 'late' at the time a signal is issued but if history has any say in the matter, it could well turn out that the signal actually occurs relatively early in what has sometimes turned out to be a severe pullback. In a perfect world, the HO would have issued a signal at some point last May. Unfortunately, for the reasons given above... it didn't. Not "officially".

    ==============

    I'm pleased to announce that on December 10th I published the first entry in my new blog. For the longest time I had been very reluctant to create a blog of my own, but for so many different reasons (trolls on other sites being the main one) I finally decided that it was probably better if I do. It's also about the only way any of you are ever going to see any of my technical work other than the HO business since SA is unfortunately so non-supportive of articles that are based on TA. You'll also find links to blog sites that I visit often, most of which are run by like-minded friends of mine who are also analysts and technicians. It's a work in progress but so far it's progressing nicely. So if you find that kind of stuff at all interesting, please bookmark it and check in every now and again as more content will be added on a semi-regular basis. I will also assemble and publish articles there, which feels a bit strange since up until now I've always used an editor at somebody else's site. Albertarocks' TA Discussions

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  • John Lounsbury
    , contributor
    Comments (3980) | Send Message
     
    AR - - -

     

    Logging in to follow more chatter and TA news. Merry Christmas and Happy New Year.
    26 Dec 2011, 02:29 PM Reply Like
  • Albertarocks
    , contributor
    Comments (2230) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Thanks John, and I wish you the very best as well. I sure hope the HO doesn't go off-line again, as it appears is now possible should the NYSE head lower over the next week or 10 days. But the market could just as well continue higher, in which case those thoughts become a moot point.

     

    By the way John, I thought I'd sent you an email yesterday but I now see that it's still in the draft folder. I've just sent it now.
    26 Dec 2011, 02:46 PM Reply Like
  • thaihawaii
    , contributor
    Comments (6) | Send Message
     
    AR

     

    Excuse me for my ignorance, but what causes the HO to go off line?
    27 Dec 2011, 10:02 AM Reply Like
  • Albertarocks
    , contributor
    Comments (2230) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Hello thaihawaii. There are a half dozen rules and conditions that must 'all' be met before an HO signal can be issued. The primary rule is that the 50 day moving average of the NYSE must be rising at the time. Right now that moving average 'is' rising but if the NYSE were to head much lower than it is at the present time, or if it were to be below 7800 somewhere around Jan. 9th or so, that moving average will have turned lower. At that point the HO is no longer permitted to issue a signal. That's the cause of every instance where the HO has gone "off line" in the past.
    27 Dec 2011, 04:27 PM Reply Like
  • DigDeep
    , contributor
    Comments (2375) | Send Message
     
    Thanks AR
    A thumbs up "like" doesn't keep me connected to the string.
    Connected.....Thanks again
    28 Dec 2011, 11:12 AM Reply Like
  • Albertarocks
    , contributor
    Comments (2230) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » You're welcome DigDeep. Hope you had a wonderful visit with Santa and that 2012 is a super successful year for you. My attitude toward that is probably reflected best by repeating a statement I made on a different website this weekend: "I hope so sincerely that 2012 turns out to be a knockout good year for all of us. I don't see why it can't, in spite of the fact that it's almost assuredly going to leave a dark stain on the entire global economic system."

     

    If we have any upper hand at all, it's in the fact that at least we're monitoring the markets on a daily basis and staying open minded about all possible outcomes. It's the 99% of 'investors' who are entrusting their pensions to brain dead "money managers" who are going to get absolutely slaughtered if the markets decide to crash in the style that is entirely possible, but which very few are imagining. My dear sister and most of my friends are in that camp. I must sound like such a quack to them. Maybe I *am* way off base but I don't believe I am. In any case, it never ceases to amaze me how utterly confident and trusting they are to go with the majority... everybody else who has their money with a "manager". That in itself is at least 'dangerous'. Heartbreaking. As they say, "ignorance is bliss".

     

    While I'm here, I might as well give a bit of a report because the HO is again rumbling. As of this moment, with a little under 3 hours to go in the trading day, the numbers for the new highs and lows are as follows (with about 85 required):

     

    New 52 week highs - 104 and stalled out
    New 52 week lows - 37 and climbing 'very' slowly

     

    At this very moment there are also 'another' 112 issues that are within 2% of attaining a new low of their own. So seeing a signal be issued today is definitely within reach. I'm not sure it will happen though considering that the broader markets are already down by about 1% on the day. Some are down quite a bit more though, such as the $CRX (commodities only stocks) which is down 2%, the implications of which are quite deflationary. That's one of the components of a study I've been working on that will be published Jan. 3rd on http://bit.ly/sAZYU8

     

    I should add that a very key level now is 1242 on the S&P. If the market falls below that level today or tomorrow, it would be a bit of a game changer since that would really hand the momentum over to the bearish camp with implications for much lower prices.

     

    It'll be published on my own blog on the same day as well. In the meantime for anybody who might be interested, this morning I published a short post on the DAX , which I think is 'the' market to watch in Europe. You could look at that here if you have a mind to:
    http://bit.ly/vcvlG8
    28 Dec 2011, 01:27 PM Reply Like
  • John Lounsbury
    , contributor
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    Thanks for the plug AR.
    28 Dec 2011, 02:21 PM Reply Like
  • Albertarocks
    , contributor
    Comments (2230) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » No worries JL, there's lots more where that came from, lol. Truthfully, I leave 'em all over the place because I think your site is a real good source for a lot of great articles. I also like Erik McCurdy's stuff and as far as I know, your site is the only place where readers can get a daily (or bi-daily) update from him via your email service. I know a whole lot of TA people who would appreciate Erik's take on things. In fact I'll bet that at least a small handful have signed up to your email service for that reason alone.

     

    Also, bar none, the best article I've ever read on the $VIX was published on your site. And no, I'm not talking about my own, lol. I'm talking about the one written by Shah Gilani. A superb piece that meshed so well with my own analysis of the VIX that if I post a link to my own piece, I 'always' include a link to Mr. Gilani's as well. Mine describes "what happens" with the VIX and Shah's piece describes "why it happens". To be totally up front, I didn't know why it happens until I read Shah's explanation. A very, very informative combo in my opinion (others have agreed).
    28 Dec 2011, 02:32 PM Reply Like
  • jhooper
    , contributor
    Comments (6045) | Send Message
     
    "I should add that a very key level now is 1242 on the S&P. If the market falls below that level today or tomorrow, it would be a bit of a game changer since that would really hand the momentum over to the bearish camp with implications for much lower prices."

     

    I still have to remind myself that we are in a cycle of "good news is good news and bad news is good news". Any serious declines in markets will bring out the central banks with guns blazing, and without fiscal stimulus to aid them they will have to really blast away. Following this line of reasoning, declines in the S&P should really be buying opportunities, at least for awhile. Eventually the damage done by these wealth transfers will take their toll. Of course knowing when this will happen for the US is the tricky part. Perhaps when the US debt to GDP is 300% and everyone else is 500%. At any rate, there still seems room for more market juicing, and recognizing this is one way to take advantage of this environment.
    28 Dec 2011, 02:33 PM Reply Like
  • Albertarocks
    , contributor
    Comments (2230) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Could be Mr. Hooper (that name always reminds me of the shark hunter from Jaws, lol).

     

    In fact, if the S&P *doesn't* fall below that 1242 level, I could sure make a case for another fast rocket shot up towards the 1290 area. But like I said, if 1242 is taken out, the odds of that occurrence will likely vaporize in pretty short order. Both are still possible that's for sure.
    28 Dec 2011, 02:41 PM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
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    Albertarocks: Greetings. I trust your festivities were all you hoped for. Falling below the 1250 mark will almost certainly bring out the PPT. While it's not really a significant point technically it's a phsychological bench mark. There is a down gap still remaining @ 1177-1188 as per H.T.Loves answer to a question posed earlier.
    28 Dec 2011, 03:06 PM Reply Like
  • Albertarocks
    , contributor
    Comments (2230) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Happy New Year RBF. Let me quickly show you why I'm focused on the 1242 level. It has more to do with 'impulse' vs. 'corrective' than anything else. This is only theory and certainly not cast in stone, but it's theory that very often pans out. Just for your interest more than anything else. I don't pretend to be a very good practitioner of Elliott Wave theory. In fact, for me personally it's downright dangerous stuff, lol.
    http://bit.ly/viRbHo
    28 Dec 2011, 03:28 PM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
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    As you can see on the chart 1242 is a resistance marker with 1225-1230 being a repetitive support line. Should that support line @ 1230 be taken out it could go below 1200 and fill the gap.
    28 Dec 2011, 03:41 PM Reply Like
  • Stilldazed
    , contributor
    Comments (2141) | Send Message
     
    Happy New Year AR and RBF,
    I am fairly new to this financial stuff (been trying to learn on SA for a year). If you are interested in EW check out Avi Gilbert here on SA, he has made some good calls for stocks and PMs. I don't understand how EW works, but for Avi it seems to work very well. http://seekingalpha.co...
    28 Dec 2011, 03:53 PM Reply Like
  • Albertarocks
    , contributor
    Comments (2230) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Thanks. Are you still dazed? ;-)

     

    Yeah, I like Avi. Have chatted with him a time or two. He interests me because he's a lawyer, my second least favorite species. Yet he's got a tremendously good grasp on the arguments for deflation and doesn't buy into the "money printing will save us all" mantra. That really, really surprised me. Not to mention that he's a nice guy with a sense of humour to boot.

     

    Well the day ended pretty much as a non-event as far as the HO is concerned, other than the fact that the market is still hovering right where it needs to be in order for a signal to be possible.

     

    It ended up with 115 new highs and 46 new lows. Tune in tomorrow if you have time.
    28 Dec 2011, 04:09 PM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10802) | Send Message
     
    AR: Greetings. I'm thinking we may see more downside tomorrow if the Italian bond auction does not go well. http://bit.ly/v0N2oZ
    28 Dec 2011, 04:14 PM Reply Like
  • Stilldazed
    , contributor
    Comments (2141) | Send Message
     
    Unfortunately I am still dazed and confused. All the stuff having to do with the financial world leaves me with a headache. ;-) I have come to the conclusion that I am not knowledgeable enough and don't have the time to become so, to be a profitable trader without relying on an analyst with a good track record. The more I learn, the more I find that I don't know. I understand why people hire money managers, but I am finding that many money managers know less than I do (or have worse luck). The best I can do in this crap shoot is my DD and cross my fingers. ;-)
    28 Dec 2011, 04:46 PM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10802) | Send Message
     
    Stilldazed: Greetings. That is just about your best bet. As you become more proficient your picks will get better. You will be able to look back over a three or four year period tracking your performance and clearly see your gains and losses which will easily show mistakes. I would suggest that you keep notes on your DD as well in chronological order which will show what you were thinking and why. Hanging out with the group you've found here is a blessing as well. At least it has been for me. Don't get down on yourself when you don't pick a winner every time either. As far as I know none of us has a perfect track record.
    28 Dec 2011, 05:07 PM Reply Like
  • Mark Bern, CFA
    , contributor
    Comments (4888) | Send Message
     
    Stilldazed - My recommendation to you is to stick with companies that you can understand that hold sustainable, dominant positions in their respective industries and have a great track record for raising dividends every year. There are enough that fit that description that you can build a well-diversified portfolio that will fall less than the rest of the market in bad times and rebound better than the overall market. Plus, you get some of your investment back in the form of dividends every quarter. Look for consistency in rising cash flow, rising earnings, rising revenue, and stable or rising profit margins. Also look for less debt as a % of capital compared to the rest of the industry, and higher return on equity (ROE) than the average for the respective industry. I also like to look at return on total capital relative to the industry. Then I like to make sure that ROE is higher than return of capital to give me assurance that management is using the debt efficiently. The greater the difference, the better the job they're doing, imo. These are the basics and if you are just starting out, that is where I would start. Why dividends? They may be boring, but historically about 38% of the total return on the S&P 500 has come from dividends. One final note: I also like companies that use excess cash to buy back outstanding shares because it tends to increase all the other metrics in per share terms and that is how a stock price is measured. I don't like companies that borrow to pay dividends or buy back stock, but there are instances where those actions make sense on a temporary basis. But for now, I'd stay away from those.

     

    You can do with my recommendations what you will. Take 'em or leave 'em. I'm just trying to give you some practical advice. Trying to hit home runs usually doesn't work very well in the long run. Hitting a lot of singles and doubles gets you around the bases more consistently. Or, if you're a football fan; throwing the long-ball every play also doesn't work in the long run. The teams that usually win are those that control the ball, control the clock, and move the ball down the field with first downs. If you can make 10% on average per year on a compounded basis you will beat the vast majority of money managers. And that is an achievable goal. Good luck!
    28 Dec 2011, 05:14 PM Reply Like
  • Stilldazed
    , contributor
    Comments (2141) | Send Message
     
    RBF,
    Thanks for the support and wisdom. You are correct in that I have read and followed some very smart and honest people in this group (not to mention that they politely agree to disagree at times) and do consider stumbling onto this group a blessing.
    28 Dec 2011, 05:16 PM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10802) | Send Message
     
    MB: Greetings. I trust all went well with your holiday festivities. Very sage advice. Especially if your platform lets you reinvest dividends at no cost to you. That is where some serious coin can be made. Ummmm free money.
    28 Dec 2011, 06:25 PM Reply Like
  • Albertarocks
    , contributor
    Comments (2230) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Stilldazed, I just re-read my reply to you (below) and it suddenly dawned on me that it sounded rather rude... as though I had ignored your Happy NY wish. I sure didn't mean it to come across like that... my apologies.

     

    Happy New Year to you as well... and many more after this one too. :-)
    28 Dec 2011, 07:19 PM Reply Like
  • Stilldazed
    , contributor
    Comments (2141) | Send Message
     
    Thank you.
    28 Dec 2011, 07:19 PM Reply Like
  • Mark Bern, CFA
    , contributor
    Comments (4888) | Send Message
     
    Yes, indeed. I also like to sell calls on some of my holdings to increase my yield by 4-6% a year on top of the dividends. That's working out pretty well in this volatile market as well. But that goes a little beyond the basics. I've actually written a whole series of articles on that along with selling puts to buy stocks at discounts. It's a work in progress designed to last two years. Readers seem to like the articles and so far I've written about 30 in that series alone.
    28 Dec 2011, 07:20 PM Reply Like
  • Stilldazed
    , contributor
    Comments (2141) | Send Message
     
    AR,
    I didn't notice any rudeness and was thankful for the answer. I sometimes get focused on something and tend to forget the pleasantries (my wife has a fulltime job reminding me to use social graces). ;-)
    28 Dec 2011, 07:35 PM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10802) | Send Message
     
    I saw a post I think it was from TB. Rocky: Bullwinkle it says here that to inherit the fortune you must stay in Abominable Manor over night. Bullwinkle: No problem I've lived in an abominable manner for my whole life. Or something like that. LOL.
    29 Dec 2011, 11:43 AM Reply Like
  • Mark Bern, CFA
    , contributor
    Comments (4888) | Send Message
     
    Robert,

     

    We had a great Christmas and are looking forward to 2012 with expectations that surpass what was achieved in 2011. My kids are doing great in school and both have a firm moral foundation that they demonstrate often in how they handle difficulties with others. One couldn't ask for much more than that!
    29 Dec 2011, 11:51 AM Reply Like
  • Albertarocks
    , contributor
    Comments (2230) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Haha. That reminds me of one that actually happened years ago. I can't remember where I saw this, whether it was in a newspaper or in a video clip on the news but it was kind of cute.

     

    A little old lady had the pleasure of meeting an NBA player, an African American if I'm not mistaken. She was so stunned by the size of the guy that the conversation went something like this:

     

    Lady: "Oh my god you're a big man, where were you born?"
    NBA: "In a hospital"
    Lady: "No, I mean where did you come from?"
    NBA: "From my mother."
    Lady: "No, no I mean in what state?"
    NBA: "In a state of confusion."

     

    Obviously the player was having a bit of fun with her but the little lady was a bit exasperated until she realized that he was just toying with her. I don't think she ever got the answer she was after.

     

    While I'm here... from the perspective of the HO, today is developing as a mirror of yesterday pretty much. The number of new highs appears to have stalled out at 85 (that's enough) with 28 new lows. In spite of the upward movement today there are also 126 'additional' stocks that are within 2% of reaching a new low of their own, So the stage is set. All we can do is to continue to monitor it.
    29 Dec 2011, 12:24 PM Reply Like
  • Albertarocks
    , contributor
    Comments (2230) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Well today produced very similar results as yesterday did. The NYSE ended up with 110 new highs and 34 new lows. These numbers show without any doubt that the market is right where it needs to be for a signal to happen. One of these days it most likely will at this rate.
    29 Dec 2011, 04:05 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6023) | Send Message
     
    Hi Rocks. That poor chicken looks like my current investment portfolio.
    30 Dec 2011, 05:34 AM Reply Like
  • Albertarocks
    , contributor
    Comments (2230) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Good morning FPA. You're not alone. This market has been a nightmare for both bullish and bearish biased investors. I imagine the only people who don't really feel all that beaten up yet are those who are complacent, trusting their accounts to lobotomized pension fund managers. They're also most likely the ones to be hit hardest in the event of a nasty downturn and will no doubt be the people who will hold onto losing positions the longest. It's just standard procedure unfortunately.

     

    But you aren't one of those people because you're paying attention. I don't know the answer obviously but I have a real bearish bias... that's all I'm fairly confident about but who knows, maybe the global banking monsters will pull off yet another bandaid fix and make the markets run up another 50%. I'll end up like that rooster too. Except I won't be arrogant about it either way.

     

    I couldn't help myself. I think that picture is just so funny because I know a lot of people who behave like that rooster. Actually it's more on the internet that I encounter them. That's what I think of when I see a comment by some arrogant 'know it all' or a troll. That picture just seems to perfectly represent an arrogant blowhard who has nothing left to do now but to try to bring others down to his beaten level.

     

    But don't you worry, I'm going to put up a picture in an hour or two that will soothe your soul. It's a picture that, after viewing, John Lounsbury said in an email to me: "You know how to make a heart bleed!" You'll like it. It's a place I have been visiting since my parents first took me there as a toddler, 40 miles from my birthplace. Watch for it at about 1:00 eastern.
    30 Dec 2011, 11:26 AM Reply Like
  • Mark Bern, CFA
    , contributor
    Comments (4888) | Send Message
     
    You should see the other guy!
    30 Dec 2011, 11:49 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6023) | Send Message
     
    Hi Rocks
    I had to borrow the chicken picture for my avatar for a few days. It’s a perfect description of how my investments turned out for this year. LOL!
    30 Dec 2011, 12:23 PM Reply Like
  • Albertarocks
    , contributor
    Comments (2230) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Haha. Glad you like it. It's one of those pictures that even a thousand words couldn't describe. I just sit back and go "wow" because it's so incredibly descriptive on so many levels.
    30 Dec 2011, 12:46 PM Reply Like
  • Agbug
    , contributor
    Comments (1132) | Send Message
     
    Love the picture from Waterton AR. My goat is down the range on the Glacier side. Waterton/Glacier International Peace Park - a place where you can still go and lose cell phone coverage.
    30 Dec 2011, 02:46 PM Reply Like
  • Albertarocks
    , contributor
    Comments (2230) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Right you are Agbug. In fact if we take an excursion boat to the far end of the lake, we end up at a place in the USA called Goat Haunt, Montana. It's just one building on the edge of the lake (out in the middle of nowhere but in one of nature's most beautiful little secrets) that sells expensive souvenirs. But the boat trip is so gorgeous. Bald eagle country. I absolutely love the Montana end of that Park too. It's so beautiful it's hard to describe.
    http://bit.ly/s3Ssxs
    30 Dec 2011, 03:13 PM Reply Like
  • Agbug
    , contributor
    Comments (1132) | Send Message
     
    Great link, AR. For those that have never visited Glacier, take the tour from the link for a respite from your portfolio. It is a beautiful place. (The goat in my profile posed for me 100 yards from the Logan Pass Visitors Center.)
    30 Dec 2011, 05:04 PM Reply Like
  • Kingsdyke
    , contributor
    Comments (21) | Send Message
     
    Rocks
    What a wonderful view. I can understand why your parents took you there. Sometimes we are too young to appreciate such natural beauty.
    The world of finance comes a poor second. Now, to give you a little lift at this time of year, here is a joke from my home country of Scotland.
    God and the angels were looking down on the earth. One of the angels said, God, have you not been over generous to that country, Scotland. You have given them wonderful hills with purple heather, glens with clear sparkling water. You have even given them whisky as their national drink. Yes, God said, but look who I have given them as neighbours.
    May I wish all at seekingalpha a happy and prosperous new year.
    30 Dec 2011, 06:45 PM Reply Like
  • thaihawaii
    , contributor
    Comments (6) | Send Message
     
    Any posts yet for the New Year??
    5 Jan 2012, 05:02 AM Reply Like
  • Albertarocks
    , contributor
    Comments (2230) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Interesting timing for your question thaihawaii. As I mentioned near the top of the comments thread (actually it was in a reply to you), the HO would be in danger of switching off somewhere between today and Jan. 9th. That possibility was due to an increasing potential for a violation of the rule about "the 50 day moving average of the NYSE must be rising". At this very moment, that's exactly what has just happened. The HO just flickered off.

     

    At the close of today, the NYSE must be higher than 7547.63. It has just dropped below that level. So as of this moment, the HO has gone "offline" and is disallowed from issuing a valid signal. It's entirely possible that the NYSE could put in the required bounce today that would be necessary for the HO to remain online. That level is 7547.63. Tomorrow it will be given a bit more breathing room and will come back online provided the NYSE is above 7400.82.

     

    Other than that, the numbers of new highs and new lows are still being ground out and it's too early in the day to get any sense of where they'll end up. There are currently only 9 new 52 week lows and only 51 more issues that are within 2% of putting in a new low of their own. So the odds of seeing a signal today seem rather remote.
    5 Jan 2012, 10:49 AM Reply Like
  • Albertarocks
    , contributor
    Comments (2230) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » This is actually a pretty interesting day on the HO front. As I mentioned, the HO did flicker off for a short while there and as I also mentioned, it was possible for it to flicker back to life if the NYSE were to bounce. And that's exactly what has happened. The NYSE bounced and the HO is still online.

     

    In the meantime, the required number of new 52 week highs has almost been attained thanks in part to the little blast-off that happened off today's low, and yet the number of stocks within 2% of their own new 52 week low has actually *risen*.
    .
    5 Jan 2012, 01:14 PM Reply Like
  • Albertarocks
    , contributor
    Comments (2230) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Day after day after day, the HO flirts with us, lol. The more I watch this thing in action, the more respect I gain (I already had plenty) for its inventor, Jim Meikka. If you haven't already visited a little piece I did on the HO on my blog, where I go into a little detail about who Mr. Meikka really is, I think you'd enjoy that visit. The paragraphs above and below his picture will suffice:
    http://bit.ly/s9ortW

     

    Ok, at the moment we're seeing 73 new highs (with about 85 required) but there are just 12 new lows. The number of stocks within striking distance of attaining a new low are more than sufficient though... should the markets suddenly decide to finish the week with a big Friday dump. Maybe some of you will do the same thing? I'm not suggesting that's what's coming, but who'd be surprised? The markets are so wacky, so fragile right now that absolutely anything is possible.

     

    So stay tuned... for some reason my spidey senses are tingling just a bit. On the other hand, perhaps they shouldn't be because I really can see the potential for a rocket shot as well.
    6 Jan 2012, 12:52 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18033) | Send Message
     
    I don't think a rocket is in the offing - S & P has hit $1290 in spite of all the "good news" and struggling to move towards it.

     

    SPXU still on for me thinking mid-Jan will have some re-trace start.

     

    'Course, I've lost a small amount on all but one of my attempts in this play.

     

    HardToLove
    6 Jan 2012, 01:03 PM Reply Like
  • Albertarocks
    , contributor
    Comments (2230) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » You won't get any argument from me on that one H.T. You're making a very, very good point there.

     

    Mind you, if the S&P breaks through and goes above 1285 the bulls will be salivating. It 'could' go higher from a chart pattern point of view. But you're right, bull markets don't end on bad news, they end on good news that just wasn't good enough.
    6 Jan 2012, 01:31 PM Reply Like
  • Albertarocks
    , contributor
    Comments (2230) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » By the way, completely off topic, I've been meaning to do this for quite a while now and keep forgetting. I was just reminded on another site. Have any of you seen these 3 incredible kids from Italy who call themselves Il Volo (Flight)? Absolutely stunning considering that they're only 17 years old. They're taking the world by storm and for darned good reason. Simply unbelievable:
    http://bit.ly/z1bkWE
    6 Jan 2012, 01:44 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18033) | Send Message
     
    I just listened - they're terrific!

     

    HardToLove
    6 Jan 2012, 02:51 PM Reply Like
  • Albertarocks
    , contributor
    Comments (2230) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I'm glad you liked it H.T. In fact on my blog there's one post that I kind of consider like a pub. Just a place where people can chat... and I just learned how to add videos there. I added this one and another by Andrea Boccelli and Sarah Brightman. It's real nice stuff that's so welcome in my humble little world.
    6 Jan 2012, 02:58 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18033) | Send Message
     
    Get some old Placido Domingo and/or "The Three Tenors".

     

    Instant audience!

     

    HardToLove
    6 Jan 2012, 03:05 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6023) | Send Message
     
    I just listened... they are excellent! I want to hear them do some opera. Tremendous talents. All three are Tremendous, but I have to admit I had a preference for one of the voices probably because he demonstrated a wider range.
    6 Jan 2012, 03:29 PM Reply Like
  • Albertarocks
    , contributor
    Comments (2230) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Same here. All 3 are spectacular but the one voice that stands out for me personally is that of the big guy, Ignazio. But all are just so talented. 17 years of age. My god.
    6 Jan 2012, 03:33 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18033) | Send Message
     
    Well, he's "built right". See Pavoratti, Domingo, ...

     

    Gotta have all the right tools!

     

    HardToLove
    6 Jan 2012, 03:39 PM Reply Like
  • Albertarocks
    , contributor
    Comments (2230) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » The smaller guy is the youngest... and prettiest according to my daughter, lol. He was only 16 at the time of this video. It's incredible how much he reminds me of Sal Mineo. Do you remember that name? I was just a tyke in Mineo's day but I can remember a whole lot of stuff from when I was 2 and 3... my entire childhood is still that fresh in my memory. I sure hope he doesn't have an end like Mineo did though. He won't.
    6 Jan 2012, 03:45 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18033) | Send Message
     
    I remember him. I was older, but now that you mention it, that young man does remind of him.

     

    HardToLove
    6 Jan 2012, 03:52 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6023) | Send Message
     
    Yes, I saw that right away.
    6 Jan 2012, 07:02 PM Reply Like
  • jhooper
    , contributor
    Comments (6045) | Send Message
     
    This is the real standard setter.

     

    http://bit.ly/yKP3mt
    6 Jan 2012, 07:36 PM Reply Like
  • DigDeep
    , contributor
    Comments (2375) | Send Message
     
    Tremendous stuff
    beats the hell out of what my 16 yr old kid listens to
    Pavarotti type quality - tremendous
    7 Jan 2012, 12:04 AM Reply Like
  • Albertarocks
    , contributor
    Comments (2230) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Isn't that such a sad truth? The word I'm getting around here is that these young guys are not only good enough to be appreciated by the younger generation (your son represents the exact category I'm referring to), but they are attractive enough to look at (not to mention superbly 'clean' and healthy looking for a change) that they are garnering a great deal of attention from the young ladies. I honestly believe these kids might be ushering in a rarely seen "change for the better, much better" in the music world. Let's hope so!

     

    As a matter of further interest, let me tell you how they came together. All 3 were competing against each other (and no doubt hundreds more) in an Italian version of American Idol. One Italian music producer hand picked these 3 guys and gave them a task (as part of the contest). He ordered them to join together and see what they could come up with singing O Sole Mio as a trio. And this is what they came up with. Remarkable to say the least. On a side note, that competition was eventually won by Gianluca Genoble... the smallest guy (and youngest) in this trio. Immediately, that music producer contacted a music producer in the United States and they were signed up immediately in the US... a thing the American music producer had never done before.
    8 Jan 2012, 02:11 PM Reply Like
  • DigDeep
    , contributor
    Comments (2375) | Send Message
     
    Yes - actually my 16 yr old is a girl - my wife (who loves them) and I spashed them on the tv screen when the kid came down for breakfast --- needless to say she was impressed ( or more....). Il Volo will make a big impression here!

     

    thanks for the link and background
    8 Jan 2012, 04:00 PM Reply Like
  • SS76
    , contributor
    Comments (9) | Send Message
     
    Lots of new highs I'm sure, but probably not enough new lows to warrant a comment eh AR. I am thinking the markets are feeling kind of toppy right now.
    10 Jan 2012, 12:05 PM Reply Like
  • Albertarocks
    , contributor
    Comments (2230) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Yes, the markets are very toppy right now. Volume is pathetic at a point that appears to be the tail end of an ending diagonal. This is so typical at tops and in fact waning volume is a requirement for an ending diagonal to be considered valid. And you're absolutely correct about the new highs and new lows with 139 and 13 in the books at this moment. However, with today's action the HO has switched off. It is not permitted to issue a signal today no matter what. Here's an excerpt from a comment I posted only moments ago on my own blog. It was intended for a different audience, one which is not as informed as you people who have been following 'this' insta for a long time now. It is in reference to the fact that the 50 day moving average on the NYSE turned lower at the open today:

     

    =========

     

    And as we all know, when a market reaches a top, sooner or later that 50 day moving average is going to roll over and start moving downward. This obviously is a very bearish development. How ironic is it then, that at a market top, when the 50 day moving average does roll over, it also switches off the HO. The HO cannot issue a signal once the MA has turned lower. That's exactly where we are today.

     

    This is one of many reasons why the HO does not go off all that often. The rules were strict enough 10 years ago, but with the advent of the changes instituted by its inventor at least two years ago, today it is even 27% more difficult for the HO to go off. And contrary to numerous reports (by the experts who are still unaware of those rule changes), http://bit.ly/xsP0AR ... the HO has not issued a signal since August of 2010. And as of today, it is not permitted to. This condition is most likely going to persist until at least Thursday, Jan. 12th.

     

    It's too bad that the HO doesn't issue a signal just before a market top, but by it's very strict nature... it won't. It needs to see very strict and concrete evidence. Therefore it is usually late, just as a 50 day moving average is late. But once the HO comes back on line probably later this week, watch out. That would mean the 50 day moving average is flickering... a sure sign that the market is at a decision point... perhaps an inflection point. Such conditions within the market create an atmosphere that is absolutely prime for an HO signal. Of course this doesn't necessarily mean that a signal is imminent... not necessarily, since the market action could certainly resolve to the upside. But it's a big fat amber flag to be sure.
    10 Jan 2012, 02:14 PM Reply Like
  • Albertarocks
    , contributor
    Comments (2230) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » As I mentioned on Tuesday, the HO has come back online now because the 50 day moving average on the NYSE has flickered higher again. Barring a catastrophe, the HO should stay online for a few days at least, and much longer than that should the NYSE continue to melt higher on ever decreasing volume. The odds of that are slim though. If volume was "convinced" or showing any type of conviction at all, I'd say the market has legs. As it is though, it's pretty obvious that the participants are not at all serious right now. I've updated the 'picture' of the NYSE chart above, and don't forget that you can click the link beneath it for a look at the live action any time you like.
    12 Jan 2012, 01:38 PM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10802) | Send Message
     
    Rocks: Greetings. Thanks for the update.
    12 Jan 2012, 01:49 PM Reply Like
  • Mark Bern, CFA
    , contributor
    Comments (4888) | Send Message
     
    Ditto! I check every post just to stay informed on the underlying conditions of the market internals. I appreciate your devotion, AR.
    12 Jan 2012, 01:51 PM Reply Like
  • Albertarocks
    , contributor
    Comments (2230) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » You're welcome fellas. It doesn't really take much effort these days. I made a promise to JL nearly two years ago and I intend to keep it. That's just the way I are :-)

     

    I suppose at some point I'll drop it all, probably after (and IF) the marked does ever correct properly. I still think we're in for one hell of a rude deflationary awakening in the not-too-distant future. But who knows, the Orcs of New York keep pulling these giant green rabbits out of their asses so who knows how long they can keep the charade up? As long as they keep creating money that's driving food prices right through the roof globally, they're going to cause consumers to suffocate under ever-increasing rising prices. I don't care what Bernanke the Liar thinks, that is a very stifling practice.

     

    I don't mind telling you, I've actually started to have a bit of fun with the new blog. I've posted a Ron Paul quotes page that you might want to check out, some cute or interesting videos on a different page, and several articles. Any of those articles that investigate whether or not we're going to be seeing a deflationary outcome are pointing to the same conclusions in every case... probably. Not confirmed yet, but probably. Just for fun, here's the Ron Paul page:
    http://bit.ly/ACTEl0

     

    There's also a kind of a pub, where friends can just drop off a comment to anybody they think might see it there. I'm treating it kind of like these HO instas. When it grows a bit too cluttered, I post a new one. The old ones show a picture of an empty beer mug and the current one shows a nice frosty full mug of tasty micro-brew, lol. A new one just started today:
    http://bit.ly/ypbBQD
    12 Jan 2012, 02:44 PM Reply Like
  • Allan Q
    , contributor
    Comment (1) | Send Message
     
    The way my trading is going of late If it was raining palaces, I'd get hit by a dunny door.
    So there's no point me giving any technical analysis because what I know about TA wouldn't fit on the back of your hand and it would be about as welcome as a fart in a phone box. However what I do know is that the market on an earning basis is expensive....VERY expensive.
    Sooner or later this market has to reestablish some value. But would I know huh?
    17 Jan 2012, 06:06 PM Reply Like
  • bigpicture22
    , contributor
    Comment (1) | Send Message
     
    is there a new insta somwhere? I see the last comment was on Jan 17 and nothing since...
    30 Jan 2012, 12:10 PM Reply Like
  • Albertarocks
    , contributor
    Comments (2230) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Negative. You're in the right spot. The HO has just been very quiet and there's really nothing to report. But I'm here :-)
    31 Jan 2012, 02:08 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13542) | Send Message
     
    And we all appreciate it, AR.
    31 Jan 2012, 06:39 AM Reply Like
  • thaihawaii
    , contributor
    Comments (6) | Send Message
     
    Thanks AR. I check in daily.
    31 Jan 2012, 09:37 AM Reply Like
  • Mark Bern, CFA
    , contributor
    Comments (4888) | Send Message
     
    I have the boxed checked so I know whenever there is a new comment and come on over immediately. Glad you're still with us AR and I never doubted for a minute that you were still monitoring the HO. Keep up the great work!
    31 Jan 2012, 10:47 AM Reply Like
  • mds5375
    , contributor
    Comments (159) | Send Message
     
    Sorry for the blazing stupidity, but where is the box to check that will alert upon new comments?
    31 Jan 2012, 03:12 PM Reply Like
  • Mark Bern, CFA
    , contributor
    Comments (4888) | Send Message
     
    Just below the end of the blog post at the top of the comment section.
    31 Jan 2012, 03:20 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18033) | Send Message
     
    That's not stupidity - it's what I suffer from: blind in one eye and can't see out of the other! :-))

     

    I had the same problem at various times. I think it's something to do with design not the for best user-friendliness.

     

    HardToLove
    31 Jan 2012, 03:41 PM Reply Like
  • mds5375
    , contributor
    Comments (159) | Send Message
     
    Thanks!
    As you say, "user-nonfriendliness" - the location is *anything* but obvious.
    BTW - I think it gets set automatically if you make a comment(?)
    31 Jan 2012, 08:08 PM Reply Like
  • Stilldazed
    , contributor
    Comments (2141) | Send Message
     
    mds,
    yes
    31 Jan 2012, 08:53 PM Reply Like
  • Albertarocks
    , contributor
    Comments (2230) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » You'll find it immediately below the end of every post on SA. It's just above the very first comment.
    1 Feb 2012, 12:39 AM Reply Like
  • Albertarocks
    , contributor
    Comments (2230) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I thought that since bigpicture22 asked the question, maybe I should just give a quick overview of what's happening on the HO front.

     

    Basically, from the perspective of the HO, the market is pretty healthy although the numbers of new 52 week highs being attained is rather anemic when compared to most of 2011 when it was producing a daily average of approximately 250 with a peak of 550. The average is climbing though.and recently broke the 200 mark (average) for the first time since the May high. So in a nutshell, the market is healthy from the perspective of the HO.

     

    Don't forget that I started up a little blog and have published a few articles since it began about 7 weeks ago. Let's see... there are about 15 articles there now. Most recently, I've taken a look at:

     

    Clues from the DAX: http://bit.ly/vcvlG8

     

    Clues from the DAX as priced in terms of the entire DJ European Financial Index:http://bit.ly/v66SDx

     

    Questioning the entire inflationary vs. deflationary argument:http:http://bit.ly/zDHvsh

     

    The Baltic Dry's stunning collapse - down 94% from its peak:http://bit.ly/yF0WwS

     

    Signals from LIBOR:http://bit.ly/wmhxGs

     

    If any of that type of analysis is of interest, feel free to check in from time to time. Those pieces are certainly being read by "somebody". I have to admit that I'm really surprised by the number of visitors that little site is getting with an average of about 10,000 per month right now and growing steadily. I'm *really* surprised at the number of visitors from Europe (especially England) and Australia. Of course the majority come from the USA and Canada.
    31 Jan 2012, 11:06 AM Reply Like
  • Augustus
    , contributor
    Comments (2056) | Send Message
     
    AR,
    Are you still observing the Blimp for signs of trouble? I've not found any posts for several weeks and want to make sure you are still following it here.
    3 Mar 2012, 02:38 PM Reply Like
  • Albertarocks
    , contributor
    Comments (2230) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Yes sir. I'm still here. I'll probably post a comment later today (Monday). Basically the numbers for the new highs is very weak considering that we're at a point where the market has run up for about 2 months straight. So I'd say they're primed.

     

    But the numbers for the new lows is also low, and not quite within reach because there are barely enough stocks that are within even 4% of attaining a new low. Therefore I don't think the HO has any chance of going off for a day or two at the earliest.

     

    However, I did post a chart about 10 days ago on the new highs which shows a huge negative divergence with price on the NYSE. This is a rare event and suggests that there's definitely market weakness beneath the surface. The brief article was not on the HO itself but is related to the HO:
    http://bit.ly/vWGtPv

     

    I post very little at SA these days but have been quite busy at my own blog. It's too bad SA doesn't support articles that are based on TA, otherwise I'd be here. But I have a whole world of friends who also have their own TA blogs as well as well known commenters and we run into each other all over the place. But never on SA.
    5 Mar 2012, 09:26 AM Reply Like
  • jhooper
    , contributor
    Comments (6045) | Send Message
     
    "Basically the numbers for the new highs is very weak considering that we're at a point where the market has run up for about 2 months straight."

     

    We seem to be in a period of hybrid stimulus between EU jawboning and actual ECB QE via LTRO. Apprently, March and April hold some key dates wherein we will find out if the financial markets will be bailed out yet again via wealth transfer from the general populace of Europe (and maybe the US) to the financial markets.

     

    In other words, will the govs of the world use their force to require people to continuing purchasing financial assets that they would rather not be purchasing in the first place? It these govs think they can get away with this politially, then they will. If this is the case, then the markets should stay strong. If not, there could be some serious pull back. Its all about the perceived willingness of respective govs to give continued support for the purchasers of financial assets. Its no different that the control of margin requirements. We saw the same thing with silver back in the spring of 2011. Margin requirments for silver were tightened, and the price of silver failed.

     

    EU action in March and April will tell us about the commitment by the govs to keep margin requirements easy for financial assets via their ability to use force to keep them easy. A bunch of selling with lower and lower prices will definitely signal the markets perception about the various govs desire to keep margins easy. It all depends on the gov's confidence that they have sold the populace on the "benefits" of giving up more of their wealth for the financial markets.
    5 Mar 2012, 09:49 AM Reply Like
  • Augustus
    , contributor
    Comments (2056) | Send Message
     
    Thanks for the update on the analysis.
    This chart of the Nasdaq NH - NL shows about the same picture.
    http://bit.ly/ACw7qm
    5 Mar 2012, 09:53 AM Reply Like
  • Albertarocks
    , contributor
    Comments (2230) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Thanks Augustus. As you know, that's a chart of new highs 'minus' new lows. If you'd showed advancers 'minus' decliners, we'd be looking at "net advancers" which of course converts into the $NYAD, or more commonly known as the A/D Line. Here's what that one looks like:
    http://bit.ly/xEU6Jt

     

    That chart is from my own library and I don't normally publish it, so it ain't very pretty, lol. But as you can see, it too shows a heck of a divergence with price on the broader NASDAQ. The NAS continues to churn higher but the number of advancing stocks is diminishing. IOW, thank god for APPLEs. AAPL is one of those big horses I keep harping on that pull the market higher. But as the HO discovers an equal number of horses that are pulling it lower, that's when we get an HO signal. As much as it is scoffed at, the HO really is a gem of an indicator, wouldn't you say? It's just too bad that there are so many TA guys who are just dying to be the first to say "the HO went off! The HO went off!", when in fact it didn't. That's why it gets a bad rap.
    5 Mar 2012, 10:20 AM Reply Like
  • Albertarocks
    , contributor
    Comments (2230) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » All good points Jhoop. There are so many theories out there. One of the more popular ones is that Bernanke's going to need a disaster in order to attempt to justify more QE. He has already declared that there won't be any more QE for at least 3 months. So the theory is that the US markets will incur a rather scary pullback providing the excuse he needs. Sounds reasonable to me, especially since the market has been jacked up for about 50 days straight. Perhaps that was in preparation for the pullback?
    5 Mar 2012, 10:44 AM Reply Like
  • DigDeep
    , contributor
    Comments (2375) | Send Message
     
    It's spring break time; "intervention gone wild".
    Just waiting for the liquidity merry-go-round to play itself out.
    The rush to the exits could get ugly as the (un)likelihood of hedge fund compliance with the haircut seems slim to me....looming CDS trigger. Then Ireland, Portugal, Spain.....

     

    Thanks for you analysis AR. Not being a TA guy myself, your insights are invaluable.
    5 Mar 2012, 10:59 AM Reply Like
  • Augustus
    , contributor
    Comments (2056) | Send Message
     
    Thanks for the link to your chart setup. In one sense, both your NAAD thad the NH-NL both measure broad market sentiment. Unless that is positive, it is difficult for index prices to continue to increase for very long. Unless the general index is rising, the MoMo stocks will not be getting the money rush, further pressuring the NH-NL value. Neither does very well at identifying the absolute top or bottom on a particular day, however, the turning points and the crossing into negative territory are pretty good clues.

     

    I have read some remarkable backtests covering long periods for the NH-NL indicator crossing the Zero line. Stay long if above Zero. Re-entry can be improved by taking an earlier shot when the short term avg. crosses the longer one on the way up, even if below Zero. It also helps when there has been a long and deep decline as it takes some time for prices to improve for a large number of stocks following that and new highs are quite a bit above the recent lows.

     

    Thanks for your thoughts.
    5 Mar 2012, 12:58 PM Reply Like
  • thaihawaii
    , contributor
    Comments (6) | Send Message
     
    DITTO
    5 Mar 2012, 08:35 AM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10802) | Send Message
     
    AR & company: Greetings. With a Greek default a near certainty and an Israeli air strike against nuclear facilities in Iran more likely every day things are likely to go south very quickly with or without a signal from the HO. Thanks for tracking this and keeping us abreast of this data AR. Good job. http://tgr.ph/z0phwS
    5 Mar 2012, 12:06 PM Reply Like
  • Albertarocks
    , contributor
    Comments (2230) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Holy smokes... I haven't been paying close enough attention today, lol.

     

    The number of new highs is currently at 71 with 85 required.
    The number of new lows is currently at 63 with the same requirement.

     

    We're much closer today than I was anticipating. Stay tuned.
    5 Mar 2012, 02:17 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18033) | Send Message
     
    98.7 FM on your dial.

     

    HardToLove
    5 Mar 2012, 02:22 PM Reply Like
  • Albertarocks
    , contributor
    Comments (2230) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Roger that. You might also want to see what I'm posting on my own blog on the topic. I post updates there now as well as here. I basically try to include the same data there as I do here, but that audience hasn't been following the HO for nearly as long as you folks have. So more explanation is required over there. But just in case I post something over there that I don't post here, I'd feel horrible. That's not likely to happen but just in case...
    http://bit.ly/s9ortW

     

    It also provides a few more links, such as the page that explains about "Maria", lol.
    5 Mar 2012, 02:58 PM Reply Like
  • Albertarocks
    , contributor
    Comments (2230) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » At the end of the day the numbers ended up as follows. 85 of each were required:

     

    New 52 week highs - 81
    New 52 week lows - 61

     

    Those numbers are often adjusted by a digit or two after hours but they're close enough to paint the picture. So clearly the market internals are shifting from very weak to 'weaker yet'. All I can say is that the market internals are residing in an area where the HO is more or less drooling, and at a time when we've just witnessed almost 50 days of straight 'up' action. It's also an occasion when I saw the HO awaken from a slumber faster than I've ever noticed in the past. Obviously something's wrong. We'll post updates tomorrow for sure.
    5 Mar 2012, 04:00 PM Reply Like
  • Albertarocks
    , contributor
    Comments (2230) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » G'day my friends. Well guess what! Yesterday we got duped by the Wall Street Journal. They were issuing false data which would explain why I felt that somehow I'd fallen asleep at the switch. Please accept my apologies this one time but I'm just going to ask you to read the entire explanation on my own blog. The only reason I want to do this is because the explanation is rather tedious and would just take up unnecessary space here:
    http://bit.ly/s9ortW

     

    But no worries, I'll still do the updates here as things move along. For today then, the bottom line is that it still doesn't look like we're going to be seeing an HO signal for a while yet. Once a bounce gets underway we should see things start to get a bit more shaky. IOW, the next bounce is most likely going to reveal a lot of cracks.

     

    Have a great day and stay safe :-)
    6 Mar 2012, 01:29 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18033) | Send Message
     
    Well, if the only source of data lies to you, maybe we should assume they are part of the U.S. Government?

     

    Then nobody else would blame you either! :-))

     

    BTW, I didn't find the explanation tedious at all - concise IMO.

     

    HardToLove
    6 Mar 2012, 01:43 PM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4161) | Send Message
     
    Thanks for all your hard and fine work on this Albertarocks. If we only had someone so thorough with the data on every front we might be able to fix a few things in this country's economy :-)
    6 Mar 2012, 03:30 PM Reply Like
  • Albertarocks
    , contributor
    Comments (2230) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Yeah, that entered my mind, lol.
    6 Mar 2012, 03:46 PM Reply Like
  • Albertarocks
    , contributor
    Comments (2230) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Thanks Jon. Isn't that the truth... if people could just be honest and deal with the truth things would indeed be better. Ron Paul seems to have that figured out. But of course the propaganda branch of the FED won't let the people know much about him nor his recent successes. That's 80% of the problem right there... the media is as corrupt as their owners.
    6 Mar 2012, 03:49 PM Reply Like
  • Albertarocks
    , contributor
    Comments (2230) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » At the end of trading today the numbers are quite muted. According to the WSJ they are as follows:

     

    New highs - 25
    New lows - 30

     

    And for backup, according to StockCharts there are 28 highs and 27 lows. So I think we can trust the WSJ's figures for today. Bottom line is that although the numbers of new highs had been incredibly anemic running up to the recent top, the HO is not all that upset just yet. I'm guessing that on the next bounce we'll actually see both numbers increase from today's levels.
    6 Mar 2012, 04:18 PM Reply Like
  • Albertarocks
    , contributor
    Comments (2230) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » There is very little to report today after that little bit of drama on Monday courtesy of the WSJ. The numbers for the new highs and lows ended up at 56 and 13 respectively. Nothing to be concerned about other than that the numbers for the new highs is very weak considering that the average has been closer to 350-400 during previous run-ups similar to the one we recently witnessed.
    7 Mar 2012, 04:02 PM Reply Like
  • Albertarocks
    , contributor
    Comments (2230) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Perhaps some of you are wondering what has been going on with the market internals now that the torrid ramp job in the markets seem to be slowing down. I apologize that it's been so quiet in here, but really there has been so little to report.

     

    Basically, during the last half of the run-up the number of new 52 week highs (say from early Feb. onward) has become very anemic and has fallen off sharply, especially as of late. From the beginning of the rally though, starting in November, those numbers had been rising nicely. Here's a chart showing what the production of new 52 week highs looks like graphically: In order to smooth it out a bit, it's probably helpful to note the white line which is a 7 day moving average of the new 52 week highs. You'll also note how badly it is diverging from the rising NYSE:
    http://bit.ly/GKD4vT

     

    All this is telling us is that the rally is weakening considerably. However, during the past week or so, the numbers of new highs has been so low that it has actually been "too low" for the HO to issue any form of warning. Really, the only warning we're getting right now is the evidence shown on the chart above.

     

    As far as the new 52 week lows are concerned, they too have been so low as to not be raising any warnings yet... averaging about 25 per day as of late, and remaining relatively steady.

     

    So that's the reason I've been very quiet in here... the market is relatively fragile and is in range of triggering an HO signal... but the stars just haven't been aligned for it to occur. If we get fairly close though, you'll be the first to know.
    23 Mar 2012, 11:05 AM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4161) | Send Message
     
    'rocks,

     

    Your efforts are greatly appreciated, be they quiet, thorough, or both.
    23 Mar 2012, 12:23 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18033) | Send Message
     
    "I apologize that it's been so quiet in here, but really there has been so little to report".

     

    Well, with "up, up and away on anemic volume (SPX)", there's only so many ways to say brrrthththth!

     

    HardToLove
    23 Mar 2012, 11:15 AM Reply Like
  • Albertarocks
    , contributor
    Comments (2230) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » LOL... thanks for the support bro.
    23 Mar 2012, 11:19 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6023) | Send Message
     
    It's great to see you Rocks. The sneak QE is ending soon...
    23 Mar 2012, 11:19 AM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4161) | Send Message
     
    ...and then?
    23 Mar 2012, 12:23 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6023) | Send Message
     
    http://tinyurl.com/8yw...
    23 Mar 2012, 12:34 PM Reply Like
  • Albertarocks
    , contributor
    Comments (2230) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Thanks FPA, it's great to see you too. See that tiny little glassy dot on your computer? That's a camera. I can actually see you, but dude I kinda wish you'd get some clothes on.

     

    I'm not current on the status of QE to be honest. Shame on me... I tend to focus on so many other things that to be truthful I just haven't paid any attention to it. Can you give me a brief rundown on the key date or dates? Just a sentence or two if you have time. Thamks in advamce.
    23 Mar 2012, 01:00 PM Reply Like
  • jhooper
    , contributor
    Comments (6045) | Send Message
     
    Doesn't OT end in June? They've also seemed to float a trial balloon for more OT, but this time they are calling it sterilization (we're starting to sound more and more like an autocracy every day with terms like this).
    23 Mar 2012, 01:08 PM Reply Like
  • Mercy Jimenez
    , contributor
    Comments (2140) | Send Message
     
    AR, maybe it has been "quiet in here" but we all take comfort in knowing you will make some big racket IF and when it is warranted. Many thanks,
    mj
    23 Mar 2012, 12:09 PM Reply Like
  • Albertarocks
    , contributor
    Comments (2230) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Oh hell ya Merci. I can get real loud and boisterous. I'm a ton of fun to drink with, lol. Take your pick... this one's on me:
    http://bit.ly/GIM5He
    23 Mar 2012, 12:55 PM Reply Like
  • Albertarocks
    , contributor
    Comments (2230) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Here's a good example of the kind of numbers I was referring to. After today's action the numbers for the new highs and lows were 67 and 10 respectively.

     

    Have a great weekend :-)
    23 Mar 2012, 05:41 PM Reply Like
  • Albertarocks
    , contributor
    Comments (2230) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Good morning friends. I just dropped in to let you know I'm still alive. Basically there's nothing to report from the perspective of the HO. We're just not seeing the kind of numbers required for it to issue a signal. In theory this is a good thing I guess.

     

    At the present moment, although it's only very early in the session and lots is going to happen before this day is done, we're seeing 10 new highs and 43 new lows. Yesterday there were 188 new highs and 29 lows. So it's in the ballpark but we're probably going to have to see a bounce in the market today or some wild swings in order that the HO starts to flare up with some bad intentions. I'm watching.

     

    But there are certainly other areas of technical analysis where I focus my energies. I've just got to bring one of those to your attention today. The Aussie:Yen currency pair is, bar none, the best measure of risk off I've every come across, since it's correlation with the S&P is stunning. They move in tandem, and very tightly so. Much better than the oft-used Aussie:USD pair as a measure of the appetite for risk. True, that pair is also very closely related to equities, but for different reasons. Reasons that aren't as good.

     

    Today the Aussie:Yen pair broke through a neckline of a pretty impressive H&S pattern that will result in a measurable move... giving us a minimum target for the 'pair'. It's waaaay down there. So the implications for equities is clear... there is a lot more downside to come. Either that or TA doesn't work these days. I go with the former. Here's a link to the chart of that pair:
    http://bit.ly/HlPvhl

     

    And here's a link to my little blog where I've discussed this pair with a couple of paragraphs.
    http://bit.ly/HUrHiZ

     

    You'll also find links to a couple of different views of the chart above. I don't run that blog with a daily dose of pablum like a lot of them do, so I don't have a huge readership. About 11,000 per month. I only post when I'm in the mood to write an article basically. There are lots of those to see if you like and I'd say all of them are as valid today as the day they were written. All of them are geared toward looking for signals. So they're all worth visiting for those who might be so inclined.

     

    You'll also find some very good friends of mine who drop in from time to time with their own excellent TA analysis. It's a clean and fun place I'm running over there, where trolls are shot on sight. Lots of fun comments from time to time as well. One of my friends has an incredibly successful blog and I was honored to have been there the other day when his 1 millionth viewer passed through. His blog is less than a year old if I'm not mistaken. So feel free to drop in at any time. But for today, I'd especially like to invite you to read about what this Aussie:Yen pair is doing. It's a very important metric... "risk is definitely off".
    4 Apr 2012, 10:40 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18033) | Send Message
     
    Thx for the AUD/Yen pair and the charts 'Rocks!

     

    I've been using just the plain old DXY stuff so far - not as strongly correlated as I would like.

     

    Still heavy in learning mode and your tidbits help the cause!

     

    HardToLove
    4 Apr 2012, 11:02 AM Reply Like
  • Albertarocks
    , contributor
    Comments (2230) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » My pleasure H.T. I know many people who use the Aussie:USD pair as a measure of the appetite for risk and I just have a hell of a difficult time explaining why, although it's good, it's not "as good" as the Aussie:Yen pair. They listen, but then they just go back to the Aussie:USD thing. lol

     

    But some of them also actually trade the Aussie:USD currencies and of course in that case, they're using it for a totally different purpose than I do since I don't actually trade it. And I wish them stellar success in that trade. They'll probably do very well.

     

    One thing they just can't seem to wrap their heads around though is that the Aussie dollar is a pure currency, the Yen is a pure currency but the US Dollar Index is not. It is an index that is priced against a basket.of pure currencies. For that reason alone, a ratio of the Aussie:USD (Index) isn't even a pure currency "pair". It would be kind of like pricing gold against wheat, or corn or rice or oats or "grains". The "grains" would be the equivalent of the USD Index... kind of, lol.
    4 Apr 2012, 11:28 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13542) | Send Message
     
    Thanks, Rocks.

     

    I have been monitoring the series of interventions staged by the BOJ to bring the value of the yen down. The first intervention managed to push it up in the low 80's vs the US$, while the latest (which ended a few weeks ago) reached 84-85.

     

    Now the yen is strengthening again vs the US$.

     

    I do not customarily track the yen/A$ pair, but I agree, it is a revealing dataset.

     

    With the major currencies becoming increasingly bifurcated between commodity producers (A$, C$, rial, oil producers, etc) and deficit consumers ($, yen, euro, etc), pairing a major commodity producer with a deficit fueled consumer has real possiblities...

     

    Temporary periods where one of the pair intervenes in their currency (either to raise its value as occurs when a commodity producer increases interest rates, or a deficit consumer decreases interest rates or intervenes directly in the currency exchange markets) require some footnoting and special analysis, but could well be extremely revealing of how much spring is left in the economic "rubber band".

     

    I had initially believed that the BOJ would content themselves with a single, brief intervention, but this second round has to be included in any analysis. I believe that its weak result (despite what looks like an all-out effort by the Japanese) should be laid at the feet of Japan's competition rather than any surprising strength in the US dollar...

     

    I would expect the yen to strengthen to about where it was before the attempt to intervene, say about 80.
    4 Apr 2012, 02:26 PM Reply Like
  • Albertarocks
    , contributor
    Comments (2230) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I had to look up "bifurcated". lol

     

    I use the Aussie:Yen cross because of the use of their extensive use in the currency trade circus. It's the unwinding of those "free money trades courtesy of the central banks" that I'm watching for. It's value as a measure of the appetite for risk as seen through the eyes of those big players who just buy one currency and short the other can't be overstated.

     

    I also have a post going that's dedicated to currencies. It's more for my friends than for myself... just a place where they can find a few charts for quick reference. If you're interested in checking it out you can drop in there anytime you like. It's not a very active post, but the charts are always updated:
    http://bit.ly/HlwwnX

     

    Ok, I found "bifurcated": "having two leaves"
    http://bit.ly/HlwwnZ

     

    Did I mention that I have a bit of truble with speling?
    4 Apr 2012, 03:26 PM Reply Like
  • John Lounsbury
    , contributor
    Comments (3980) | Send Message
     
    Thanks for the update AR.
    4 Apr 2012, 04:37 PM Reply Like
  • Albertarocks
    , contributor
    Comments (2230) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » You're welcome John. I feel a bit guilty for having been gone for so long, but really there's just been nothing exciting to report. Hope you're feeling better now. Here, maybe this will bring a chuckle. It's a photograph I like to call "pfffffft"
    http://bit.ly/Hpfq4j
    4 Apr 2012, 07:35 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18033) | Send Message
     
    I love that photo!

     

    It would be interesting to know the back-story.

     

    HardToLove
    5 Apr 2012, 04:10 AM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10802) | Send Message
     
    Yup! It's a keeper. Thanks for the update and the chuckle AR.
    5 Apr 2012, 09:46 AM Reply Like
  • Albertarocks
    , contributor
    Comments (2230) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » You're welcome RBF. I'd love to stay and chat but my neighbor's dog wandered in again to watch TV with us. Sometimes it's a bit of a chore to get him to leave, especially when his favorite show is on.
    http://bit.ly/HrxdYP
    5 Apr 2012, 12:13 PM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10802) | Send Message
     
    I can see how that might be a problem. I hope he's house trained! LOL.
    9 Apr 2012, 12:31 PM Reply Like
  • Stilldazed
    , contributor
    Comments (2141) | Send Message
     
    AR,
    Thought you might be interested in this article on SA.
    http://seekingalpha.co...
    5 Apr 2012, 03:15 PM Reply Like
  • Albertarocks
    , contributor
    Comments (2230) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Hey there partner... how are ya? How ironic... on one of those rare days (over the past few months at least) when I perused the 'Macro Veiw' tab at the top of the page I had spotted that article by Mr. Santos and read it. Good eye, lol.

     

    Paulo puts forth a lot of points that just seem to make so much sense why we could see a flash crash-type event. I'll be honest though, it has come to the point where I myself am almost as conditioned by the manipulators to believe that the markets will never go down. Me, of all people! Of course that's nonsense, but the illusion the FED and the ECB have been able to produce has been incredibly frustrating and effective in messing with peoples' minds. Even mine, lol. And even in light of the fact that my own understanding of where money comes from allows for the possibility of all that money to just vanish... it isn't happening.

     

    Greece defaulted. And the world of equities celebrates that blessed event of Greece having given birth to a dead baby by throwing a party that until very recently had run for 17 weeks straight. It might not be over either, but my own work says it is. From the technical side, weakening market internals, moving averages starting to roll over, "risk off" ratios showing we might be on the precipice, etc.... I'd have to agree with Mr. Santos that the table is set. I don't know if it would be a spectacular as the May 6, 2010 flash crash and I kind of doubt it. But a severe down draft of frightening proportions is probably in the works.

     

    There are just so many reasons why a crash could be imminent. One of those is the fact that in order for Bernanke to have an excuse for firing off QE3 he's going to need a panic. Provided of course that they 'are intending to' issue another round. I can't imagine how they could "not be" planning on it. Somebody has to buy bonds in the future and we've finally reached the point where no other buyers remain on this planet. Certainly not at the current low rates. What better time to initiate a panic than over a 3 day weekend?

     

    The one indication I'm focusing on that has me so convinced, and which enticed me to add to short positions on yesterday's close was the Aussie:Yen cross. It sits on a precipice: http://bit.ly/Hm8RFW

     

    Also, there are air pockets (based on past volume, or lack thereof) beneath all markets, and there are H&S patterns all over the place where price closed for the weekend sitting right on those necklines. All I can say is that I think the ducks are all lined up for all of them to crash right through those necklines on Monday .

     

    Having said that, I need to disclose that my accuracy as of late for making predictions is running somewhere around 9%. You might want to consider my opinions with a grain of salt, lol

     

    Have a great weekend :-)
    6 Apr 2012, 02:26 PM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4161) | Send Message
     
    Fantastic post AR. Thank for sharing your efforts and insights! and humor and wit!
    6 Apr 2012, 04:10 PM Reply Like
  • Stilldazed
    , contributor
    Comments (2141) | Send Message
     
    Hi AR,
    Your welcome, I try to pass on articles to people that delve in certain areas. It seems that my reading of tea leaves and chicken bones doesn't do so well either. There seems to be a lot of backroom or off the books dealings going on that have been artificially propping up the market (JMHO). Official numbers may help Wall Street but haven't shown any results on Main Street, this is all anecdotal evidence, however in my part of the country a recent job had over 200 applicants for a low level management position around 50% of applicants had a BS degree or better and 17% had a BS degree with no experience the rest were like me with an AS degree and long on experience. Can you imagine a BS degree or better with experience applying for a less than $50 thousand a year job? More anecdotal, my wife is a teacher with a Masters in Psychology and in Educational Leadership. She was offered a job working with kids with ADD, ADHD, and Autism for $9.50 an hour (that is her specialty). In our State that is about $1 an hour over minimum wage. BTW, the job did require a teaching cert. and a Masters in Psychology. Talk about wage deflation.
    6 Apr 2012, 07:01 PM Reply Like
  • Albertarocks
    , contributor
    Comments (2230) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Geez... that's really a sad state of affairs. I'm finding that in certain sectors up here, like retail, the competition is extremely tough and margins are razor thin. So employers are offering terrible wages for rather mundane positions like stocking shelves and work those people to the bone. They run it almost like an Asian sweat shop, thinking that the only way to increase revenues even in the slightest is to whip the mules just a bit harder each and every day. It's horrible in retail.

     

    Overall though, the province where I live continues to enjoy an incredibly robust economy. And even though Alberta has diversified somewhat, it's still mainly resource based. The entire economy of the City of Calgary was at one time 70% related to the energy sector in one form or another. But the city has diversified into other areas including banking, bringing the total reliance upon the oil sector down to 30%. Nonetheless, unless there is a war in the Gulf, oil should be headed much lower. In such an event we're going to get creamed and sadly it seems very few of the population know even 10% of what you and I know. They think this fantastic economy is just going to go on forever. It would... if there was a war that which might at least maintained oil prices where they currently are. But other than that, I think the pressures of a global collapse into deeper and deeper recession would put a damper on the price of oil to be sure.

     

    Wait until these people try to find a job 'then'. They'll be facing the same music you're describing. Thank god our province has no debt because we're very vulnerable. But with no debt, in a collapse we probably stand to survive about as well as anybody. It's still gonna be tough goin' though. Wage deflation at a time when food and energy prices are way up there... what a sick recipe.

     

    Hope you're having a great weekend and try not to eat too many of those candy Easter eggs. They make you phart. Take care :-)
    7 Apr 2012, 01:38 AM Reply Like
  • Stilldazed
    , contributor
    Comments (2141) | Send Message
     
    Hi AR,
    Sounds like you are better off economically, but on employment similar to us. Thanks for the holiday greetings and I hope you have a great weekend also. Fortunately all the grandkids live a long ways away, I'm already becoming all gut and no butt. ;-)
    7 Apr 2012, 01:49 AM Reply Like
  • mds5375
    , contributor
    Comments (159) | Send Message
     
    Perhaps 2012 will be like 1987 and crash in the fall?
    http://seekingalpha.co...
    12 Apr 2012, 11:58 AM Reply Like
  • Albertarocks
    , contributor
    Comments (2230) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Perhaps. I think that would be the preference of those who wield some power and would like Obama to be re-elected. I don't qualify as either, lol.
    12 Apr 2012, 03:07 PM Reply Like
  • Mark Bern, CFA
    , contributor
    Comments (4888) | Send Message
     
    Actually, I don't think it matters who gets elected this fall as far as whether we will experience a major correction or not. Think about what is going to be facing the lame-duck Congress: increase the debt ceiling, cut spending by the required amount agreed to last fall (1/2 from Defense and there will be a lot of special projects plugged into the bill in order to buy the necessary votes), a vote on extending the Bush tax cuts on dividends and capital gains. The country will be in crisis mode again as the debt ceiling debate goes until the very last minute. We could even see another credit rating fiasco that could do one of two things: require an increase in the return to draw enough investors to continue to finance the ever-growing debt; or cause stock and bond markets around the world into turmoil with a flight to the "safety" of U.S. Treasuries. Or it could do both in sequence; or it could do something completely different this time around. After all, this is uncharted waters we're heading into. With all three of those issues on the table and a vote required before the new Congress takes office, it is likely to get pretty dicey this fall. I think that just the anticipation will get markets nervous. Fortunately, I think it will be late summer to mid-fall before the Street wakes up to what is coming, what with all the noise that the elections will be putting out. We'll definitely have to earn our money over the next 12-month period.
    16 Apr 2012, 04:46 PM Reply Like
  • Albertarocks
    , contributor
    Comments (2230) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Good day folks. I thought it was time for an update since the markets have been hovering right in the zone required for the HO to issue a signal. Yesterday for example, the numbers for the new highs and lows were something like 55 and 53. I didn't jot them down nor does it really matter. Once again we find ourselves in the situation where the HO is about to shut down due to the rule that the 50 day moving average on the NYSE must be rising. At this moment it's dead flat. But let's just ignore that little detail for today.

     

    Right now the numbers for the new highs and lows are 41 and 36 respectively (with 82 of each required at minimum). Theoretically we could get a signal any day now, even today. However, if by chance that happened 'and' the 50 day MA was pointed lower, the HO would not be allowed to legally issue a signal. But you know what? I could care less about whether or not it happened on 'the day' that the MA turned south. The message would be the same. So let's just monitor it for the day and see where it ends up. With OPEX Friday just around the corner there's every chance that the overlords will be trying their best to jack the market up so they can at least steal the options premiums way up there at the Max Pain levels of 139 on SPY and 82 on IWM. At least, normally that's what they do and if there's any way they can do it this week, they will. If they can't achieve that goal, then I'd absolutely consider that as another sign of serious weakness.

     

    On a side note, if there was any such thing as an HO for the NASDAQ, it would have come even closer yesterday to triggering than the 'real' HO did. As I recall the numbers of new highs and lows on the NAS were about dead even and about 15 short of what would have been required.

     

    So stay tuned my friends and I'll let you know how today ended up.
    18 Apr 2012, 12:17 PM Reply Like
  • Albertarocks
    , contributor
    Comments (2230) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » The day ended up with 51 highs and 42 lows. Again, not enough of either.
    19 Apr 2012, 09:05 AM Reply Like
  • Albertarocks
    , contributor
    Comments (2230) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » A new HO thread has been started. Let's take the conversation over there and start all over again. Thanks for your patience with that "broken link" issue... something I was completely unaware of until alerted by FPA and K202. I think everything is fixed now, but then I for the longest time I also thought Patio Furniture was the name of an Irish jockey... so take my "thoughts" with that proverbial grain of salt.
    http://seekingalpha.co...
    24 Apr 2012, 12:32 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6023) | Send Message
     
    It's all working again :)
    24 Apr 2012, 12:35 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18033) | Send Message
     
    LoL! Follow your link and it takes you to the list of instablogs.

     

    And there's no new one shown!

     

    And the gremlins that provide SA's service continue their mischief.

     

    HardToLove
    24 Apr 2012, 12:39 PM Reply Like
  • Albertarocks
    , contributor
    Comments (2230) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Damnit. When 'I' click it, it takes me to the new insta.
    24 Apr 2012, 12:41 PM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4161) | Send Message
     
    Works for me just fine.
    24 Apr 2012, 12:42 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18033) | Send Message
     
    This time it worked!

     

    Hey! What's that picture - a Canadian luxury rest stop?! ;-))

     

    HardToLove
    24 Apr 2012, 12:42 PM Reply Like
  • Albertarocks
    , contributor
    Comments (2230) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I assume you're speaking of the pooper? No... the Canadian luxury rest stop is the picture at the top of "this" page :-)
    24 Apr 2012, 12:48 PM Reply Like
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