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  • GeoInvesting.com Releases Updated Valuation Scenarios for CGA, MED, TIS, CMFO, CBPO 0 comments
    May 18, 2009 10:56 AM | about stocks: CGA, TIS, MED, CBPO

    GeoInvesting would like to alert investors to updated valuation scenarios for the following companies:

    China Green Agriculture (AMEX:CGA)
    Medifast Inc. (NASDAQ:MED)
    Orchids Paper Products (AMEX:TIS)
    China Marine Food Group (OTCBB:CMFO)
    China Biologic Products Inc. (OTCBB:CBPO)

    Potential Valuation Scenarios - CGA

    Data Inputs:

    Fiscal Year Ends in June

    Date   4/13/09   5/15/09
    Price   $4.26   $7.16
    12 Months Trailing EPS   $0.39   $0.48
    Published 2010 Analyst EPS Estimates a   $0.71   $0.71
    Future EPS Growth Rate Based on 2010 Estimates a   43%   23%
    Trailing P/E Ratio   10.92   14.91
    PEG Ratio (P/E divided by growth rate) a   0.25   0.65

    a CGA is not paying a full U.S. tax rate. Therefore, all EPS numbers have been adjusted by the GeoTeam® to reflect a U.S. tax rate of 36%.

    Short-Term Valuation Scenarios

    Date   4/13/09   5/15/09
    Price Based on P/E of 25 on Four Quarters Trailing EPS   $9.75   $12.00
    Price Based on P/E of 20 on Four Quarters Trailing EPS   $7.80   $9.60
    Price Based on P/E of 15 on 2010 Analyst EPS Estimates b   $10.65   $10.65

    Long-Term (12 Months Forward) Valuation Scenarios

    Date   4/13/09   5/15/09
    Price Based on P/E of 25 on 2010 Analyst EPS Estimates b   $17.75   $17.75
    Price Based on P/E of 20 on 2010 Analyst EPS Estimates b   $14.20   $14.20

    Peg Ratio Analysis - Common rule of thumb that PEG ratio should be less than 1.0

    PEG Ratio Less than 1? YES

     b 2010 Analyst estimates and the future EPS growth rate may prove to be conservative in light of the company's third quarter report.  The GeoTeam® will provide an update if warranted.


    Potential Valuation Scenarios - MED

    Data Inputs:
     

    Date   5/15/09
    Price   $8.20
    12 Months Trailing EPS   $0.45
    Published 2009 Analyst EPS Estimates   $0.58
    Future EPS Growth Rate Based on  Estimates   65%
    Trailing P/E Ratio   18.22
    PEG Ratio (P/E divided by growth rate)   0.28

    Short-Term Valuation Scenarios

    Date   5/15/09
    Price Based on P/E of 25 on Four Quarters Trailing EPS   $11.25
    Price Based on P/E of 20 on Four Quarters Trailing EPS   $9.00
    Price Based on P/E of 15 on 2009 Analyst EPS Estimates
      $8.70

    Long-Term (12 Months Forward) Valuation Scenarios

    Date   5/15/09
    Price Based on P/E of 25 on 2009 Analyst EPS Estimates   $14.50
    Price Based on P/E of 20 on 2009 Analyst EPS Estimates   $11.60

    Peg Ratio Analysis - Common rule of thumb that PEG ratio should be less than 1.0

    PEG Ratio Less than 1? YES

    Potential Valuation Scenario - TIS

    Data Inputs:

    Date   2/26/09   5/15/09
    Price   $12.98   $17.61
    12 Months Trailing EPS   $0.79   $1.12
    Published 2009 Analyst EPS Estimates   $1.40   $1.73
    Future EPS Growth Rate Based on 2009 Estimates   78%   119%
    Trailing P/E Ratio   12.63   15.72
    PEG Ratio (P/E divided by growth rate)   0.63   0.13

    Short-Term Valuation Scenarios

    Date   2/26/09   5/15/09
    Price Based on P/E of 25 on Four Quarters Trailing EPS   $19.75   $25.00
    Price Based on P/E of 20 on Four Quarters Trailing EPS   $15.8   $22.40
    Price Based on P/E of 15 on 2009 Analyst EPS Estimates   $21.0   $25.95


    Long-Term (12 Months Forward) Valuation Scenarios

    Date   2/26/09   5/15/09
    Price Based on P/E of 25 on 2009 Analyst EPS Estimates   $35.00   $43.25
    Price Based on P/E of 20 on 2009 Analyst EPS Estimates   $28.0   $34.60


    Peg Ratio Analysis - Common rule of thumb that PEG ratio should be less than 1.0

    PEG Ratio Less than 1? YES

    Potential Valuation Scenarios - CMFO

    Data Inputs:

    Date   5/15/09
    Price   $2.83
    12 Months Trailing EPS a   $0.37
    Published 2009 Average EPS Guidance b   $0.50
    Future EPS Growth Rate Based on  Estimates   35%
    Trailing P/E Ratio   7.64
    PEG Ratio (P/E divided by growth rate)   0.22

    a CMFO is not paying a full U.S. tax rate. Therefore, all EPS numbers have been adjusted by the GeoTeam® to reflect a U.S. tax rate of 36%.

    b While the company did not provide EPS guidance, they did provide net income guidance.  Therefore, the GeoTeam used the 2008 year ending outstanding share count of 23,010,842 to calculate an implied EPS figure.  Commentary in the company's March 31 10Q, page 58infers that dilution from capital raises may not be an issue:

    "We believe that the current operating activities would be able to generate adequate cash flows supporting the daily operations. We do not have any fund raising plan at the moment."

    It should be noted that the company does have 2 million outstanding warrants with an exercise price of $4.20.  This could come into play if the stock gains momentum.

    Short-Term Valuation Scenarios

    Date   5/15/09
    Price Based on P/E of 25 on Four Quarters Trailing EPS   $9.25
    Price Based on P/E of 20 on Four Quarters Trailing EPS   $7.40
    Price Based on P/E of 15 on 2009 Average EPS Guidance   $7.50

    Long-Term (12 Months Forward) Valuation Scenarios

    Date   5/15/09
    Price Based on P/E of 25 on 2009 Average EPS Guidance   $12.50
    Price Based on P/E of 20 on 2009 Average EPS Guidance   $10.0

    Peg Ratio Analysis - Common rule of thumb that PEG ratio should be less than 1.0

    PEG Ratio Less than 1? YES

    Valuation Scenarios - CBPO

    Data Inputs:

    Date   5/15/09
    Price   $3.95
    12 Months Trailing EPS a   $0.54
    Published 2009 Analyst EPS Estimates   $0.81
    Future EPS Growth Rate Based on  Estimates   50%
    Trailing P/E Ratio   7.22
    PEG Ratio (P/E divided by growth rate)   0.14

     a CBPO is not paying a full U.S. tax rate. Therefore, all EPS numbers have been adjusted by the GeoTeam® to reflect a U.S. tax rate of 36%.

    Short-Term Valuation Scenarios

    Date   5/15/09
    Price Based on P/E of 25 on Four Quarters Trailing EPS   $13.50
    Price Based on P/E of 20 on Four Quarters Trailing EPS   $10.80
    Price Based on P/E of 15 on 2009 Analyst EPS Estimates   $12.15

    Long-Term (12 Months Forward) Valuation Scenarios

    Date   5/15/09
    Price Based on P/E of 25 on 2009 Analyst EPS Estimates   $20.25
    Price Based on P/E of 20 on 2009 Analyst EPS Estimates   $16.20

    Peg Ratio Analysis - Common rule of thumb that PEG ratio should be less than 1.0

    PEG Ratio Less than 1? YES


    These scenarios are not investment advice, but are scenarios based on some commonly used investment guidelines.  They are provided to aid investors in making their own investment decisions.

    Disclosure: Long CGA, TIS, MED, CMFO, CBPO

    Stocks: CGA, TIS, MED, CBPO
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