Seeking Alpha

LookingConfident's  Instablog

LookingConfident
Send Message
Longstanding investor in Looksmart (and a 70 yr old ex-tradesman), who has a passionate interest in the problems of newspapers along with their success in all their monetisation attempts made, on the web. For the "times are indeed, a changin", I feel. [17th of Aug, 2011 - Print media... More
  • Facebook (Looksmart) - What To Expect In Tuesday's Mystery Press Conference? 2 comments
    Jan 13, 2013 9:29 PM

    Exactly what will Facebook announce in a mystery press conference scheduled for next Tuesday? For starters, I do feel that there's every chance that an emerging winner in Product/Service Listings may be part of their message they'll be telling of, to all interested parties.

    Product Listing Ads (PLAs) are well described within that linked Dec. article as being an evolving best practice in what the writer describes, as that of a new (yet misunderstood) hybrid-bidded marketplace.

    For Publishers (both big and small and within a few posts back) I had suggested that they become part of a global marketplace that allows advertisers (in real time), to target and follow users showing search intent-no matter where that user next lands, within that marketplace.

    It's clear to me the likes of Google, Yahoo and Bing can already see the 'win-win-win' for advertisers, publishers and themselves (I feel) and that they have long been involved in 'linking-up' and the testing of the merits of this coming ONE (global) marketplace.

    For Looksmart, the departing CEO had made it pretty clear (08/03/12) that in 2013 - - the company would be about delivering traffic through unlimited display supply & effectively targeting it to search advertising campaigns- a game-changing event advertisers and publishers are resoundingly asking for. (Albeit I'm not at all convinced that there's any need for his 'talked of' new product suite - - including the click server, online analytics, ad server and advertiser and publisher center.)

    Google-Yahoo-Bing and Facebook?

    In serving RT 'buyer ready' individual impressions (anonymous to all partners) across that ONE huge-combined publisher base (& globally), should ultimately be the extent of Looksmart's role and or, limitations.

    To me it appears that Looksmart (here's the advice) have now closed it's own Ad Network. (Referred to in Looksmart's above linked Filing as being the "intermediary business".)

    This was always to be the case-so as the company could then become neutral or, completely independent in it's role- the operation of a global Open marketplace, based on RT (real time) 'search intent'. (Referred to in that linked Filing as the Company's distribution network.)

    Facebook? (Yes .... It's ALL about, Facebook)

    With Facebook's New Rules in 2013 it's not hard to see how intent based ads (in specific geographical post-code areas) can so easily be served to Facebook users with relative (current) business or, deal offer details, being all nicely laid out on a business' Facebook page.

    So- what we could see is a self-serve Google advertiser, say a mechanic on what is a quiet work day (who's offering discounted basic car services for certain post-codes/zip-codes- in areas that surround his work-shop), being connected up with a user (who just happens to have searched on another of Looksmart's search intent partner engines for a car 'service' close to him/her), then being found (on his/her very next landing page or, 'port of call'- that could even be Facebook) and being served an ad with brief details & a link to the workshop's Facebook business page!

    Looksmart's RT (global) marketplace is about scale, eliminates click fraud, has no friction in ad buying and avoids any 'Data leakage'.

    Facebook - A Buyer and Seller (Of Ads.)

    Now Facebook (will it buy Atlas?) with it's own ad network connected into this Open independent marketplace, may well see the mechanic having initiated his advertisement, on Facebook!

    This then results in Facebook gaining an advertiser Fee, plus there's that treasure, being the publisher's share.-- Looksmart (in each instance and in the case of the Google search initiation), would receive ~ 20% of the winning bid value (is my guess), of which-some 50% is then passed on to Google, for passing on that 'in market' (IP addy), 'user intent'.

    User intent data suddenly becomes of real value not only to the major search engines but it provides a new revenue source for sites where users may express an interest or, show 'intent'- in a product search.

    An example

    Feedsmixer (feedsmixer.org)

    ............."Whatever you are looking for answers or want to get answers to your questions, check our Questions and Answers section or join our community now to win...with Feedsmixer"

    Feedsmixer is part of UK based Nixxie Ltd, a high quality publishers network. [See Upstream Sites in Nixxie's Clickstream - nixxie.com]

    Both have appeared in Looksmart's Traffic percentages in recent times,

    About us

    Nixxie enables websites to boost online income with precisely targeted Internet advertising from leading providers such as Yahoo & Miva. Our service is a win-win-win for international web publishers, advertisers and end users. [Miva ='s AdKnowledge]

    The timing of a rise in Search percentages (as shown @ Alexa), does fit with my theory that Looksmart closed-down it's own ad network, in the 1st few days of January. Clearly this would produce a 'bounce' effect.

    The closure (or, sale of) is something that I've always claimed was to be a mandatory 'move' to consolidate Looksmart's uniquely independent or, neutral role in the conductance of a new hybrid-bidded marketplace.

    Estimated percentage of visits to looksmart.com that came from a search engine:

    7 day8.6%+231%Change in Search % over the trailing 7 day period

    [Above] Trailing ONE Month

    www.alexa.com/siteinfo/looksmart.com#

    Upstream Sites

    Which sites did users visit immediately preceding looksmart.com?

    % of Unique Visits Upstream Site
    7.15% google.com
    5.27% answerherefinders.in
    5.22% shopguidefinds.com
    4.78% discount-find.in
    4.54% topmarket-search.com
    4.39% easycashesfinder.in
    4.10% busines-search.in
    4.07% feedsmixer.org
    2.83% protection-searcher.com
    2.32% market-find.com

    Downstream Sites

    Where do visitors go after leaving looksmart.com?

    % of Unique Visits Downstream Site
    15.61% google.com
    3.47% shopguidefinds.com
    3.21% answerherefinders.in
    3.16% discount-find.in
    3.14% topmarket-search.com
    2.76% busines-search.in
    2.76% yahoo.com
    2.61% easycashesfinder.in
    2.35% feedsmixer.org
    1.97% 

    protection-searcher.com

    ***********************************

    Yet another to check is (topmarket-search.com)

    TopMarketSearch.com (I've proven), is Clicksor (YesUp)

    topmarketsearch.com/people.htm (Link, now removed?)

    They have an Advertising Marketplace based in Toronto, Canada.

    Did I say "CANADA?" Looksmart had also 'set up shop' in Toronto, Canada. tinyurl.com/3bmwvpl

    ***********************************

    An Intent-Based global marketplace (with up to 100 billion 'events' per day, capability), is now on our door-step. Is there any doubt?

    There's little more that I can add (yet there's so much more - that can and will likely be posted), save from replying to 'equityval's' two recent posts (Re;Tender Offer and This one), over on Yahoo's LOOK board.

    Always, only an opinion.

    LOOK: $0.8080 Down 0.0520 (-6.05%) Jan 11, 2:43PM EST

    Market Cap:$13.95M

    LC

    ps; Google PLAs Proving Way More Effective Than Text Ads - - According to Kenshoo's findings, "eye-catching" PLAs draw about one and a half times the click through rate of regular text ads, and convert 23% better, resulting in a 31% higher return on advertising spending (ROAS).

    Disclosure: Long LOOK

    .

Back To LookingConfident's Instablog HomePage »

Instablogs are blogs which are instantly set up and networked within the Seeking Alpha community. Instablog posts are not selected, edited or screened by Seeking Alpha editors, in contrast to contributors' articles.

Comments (2)
Track new comments
  • LookingConfident
    , contributor
    Comments (892) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » .
    UP by 300% now (as @ January, 12th), is Alexa's estimated percentage of visits to looksmart.com - that came from a search engine:

     

    Estimated percentage of visits to looksmart.com that came from a search engine:
    Search % Change
    7 day 10.4% +300% Change in Search % over the trailing 7 day period
    1 month 4.5% -12% Change in Search % over the trailing 1 month period
    3 month 4.8% -38% Change in Search % over the trailing 3 month period

     

    http://bit.ly/HDwBit#

     

    This supports my above reasoning that the Looksmart ad network has now closed for business.

     

    In a reply over on Yahoo Finance, here are my own thoughts on reasoning the stated drop in revenue. (Un that the Co's daily gross margin has decreased from $14,000 as of June 2012 to $9,000 as of January 2013.)

     

    ...What this clearly tells us (I feel) is that the publisher solution's revenue (for this Q1 2013 period we are in), is already UP ( @ $3000/ day -- and at this point in time, of course), when compared with the $200,000 recorded total publisher revenues - for the Q3 2012 period. ($3000 X's 93 days ='s ??)

     

    This augers well for shareholders and certainly for the new (64%) 'control' - in PEEK.

     

    ..............Certainly in knowing that the daily share or, that percentage of an advertiser's spend .......or, what becomes the Co's actual total comprehensive revenue - and when after TAC is paid to the search engines for those RT 'in market' queries that are sold to advertisers, its the comprehensive income or, margin. (This is totally unrelated to the now defunct or, the closed Looksmart ad network - or, that what was known to us as being, the "intermediary business".)

     

    And yes, I'm meaning that this (the $6,000 and $3,000 respectively), is soley related to the OPEN (global), independent marketplace, Folkz

     

    Or, that, what is known to us as being called, the "Distribution Network business", as has been stated. (Again. It relates to daily revenues at this point in time - meaning, for the first few days of this Q1 quarter).

     

    Now, as that publisher base begins to grow quickly in partners (can we possibly get to include Facebook after tomorrow? - who knows?), then the total publisher solutions revenue will also grow, accordingly. And no doubt PEEK will already know of this now, besides their having been told of it often enough, by me.

     

    More advertisers will be attracted to this anticipated exponential growth of publishers joining this unique marketplace - that can then provide them with the kind of 'scale' the market is screaming out for, and as was best described by the soon to depart, disgraced CEO Dexmier, in the CC following the Q2 - - and as is contained within the amended FORM SC 14D9/A (Filed 08/03/12)

     

    "When discussing game-changing events for online advertising with our customers and partners, there is strong consensus regarding the significant value that an integrated Search and Display open marketplace would have for them.

     

    There is a clear opportunity to create value by providing such a marketplace, enabling advertisers, who are primarily focused on search-based advertising and the publishers, who mostly provide display opportunities, to directly meet and efficiently settle - in real time - individual search ad placements."

     

    And the "Distribution Network" business' $6,000 comprehensive revenue and the $3,000 comprehensive income or, that margin derived from it (for the first few days of this new Q1 period), will have, no doubt too, been efficiently "settled" - in real time!

     

    (Don't you just love it?)

     

    .....Now with the huge investment in technology - the many millions that Looksmart have spent (quarter after quarter/year after year), for anyone to even consider the thought that PEEK are shelling out circa $9m to get their hands on circa $12m, is plain madness. PEEK will be making many 'multiples' on any shares they may ever decide to sell to the market, and for many years to come.

     

    LC
    .
    15 Jan 2013, 04:44 AM Reply Like
  • LookingConfident
    , contributor
    Comments (892) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » .
    The Facebook news of an involvement in search (that will include results from Microsoft's Bing), has me still convinced that my above PLA 'scenario' is still 'on target', in time.

     

    I feel that Facebook will now buy Atlas and that whilst there was no direct mention of PLAs, I can definitely see some 'workings' in the making, with both the Foursquare and Yelp involvements.

     

    As this article sums it up:

     

    ........."The social media king pins announced a new navigation feature called "Graph Search" - a product that allows users to enter queries on Facebook and get answers in real time."

     

    http://yhoo.it/V7c1Et

     

    And after-all (apart from the obvious scale in Facebook), is this any different than the example given in my above blog-post, in that of a known Looksmart partner, in Feedsmixer?

     

    (http://feedsmixer.org)

     

    ............."Whatever you are looking for answers or want to get answers to your questions, check our Questions and Answers section or join our community now to win...with Feedsmixer"

     

    SCALE, for 'search intent' based advertising.

     

    LC
    .
    15 Jan 2013, 03:29 PM Reply Like
Full index of posts »
Latest Followers

StockTalks

More »

Latest Comments


Posts by Themes
Instablogs are Seeking Alpha's free blogging platform customized for finance, with instant set up and exposure to millions of readers interested in the financial markets. Publish your own instablog in minutes.