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Crop Progress: Corn Harvest on Schedule

|Includes:AGCO, BAL, PowerShares DB Agriculture ETF (DBA), JJG, POT, RJA

This afternoon, the USDA released its weekly crop progress report. The corn harvest is 10% complete which is on pace with the 11% 5-year historical average. The USDA estimated 51% of the corn crop is in good or excellent condition, down 2% from last week. The estimate for corn condition in very poor or poor condition increased to 21%, compared to 20% last week. Last year at this time, 11% of the crop was in very poor or poor condition while 68% was in good or excellent condition.

This week the USDA estimated that 92% of the corn crop was dented while 97% was last year in the third week of September; the 5-year historical average is 91%. Out of the entire corn crop, 46% was considered mature by the USDA this week, 29% was mature last week, 67% was mature last year, and the 5-year historical average is 48% in the third week of September.

Of the 18 primary soybean producing states, 18% of the soybean crop is in poor or very poor condition while 53% is in good or excellent condition, which is well off 2010 estimates of 12% and 63% for the third week in September. The USDA estimated that 33% of soybeans were dropping leaves by this week, which is again severely lagging the 5-year historical average of 47% for the third week of September.

The spring wheat harvest is slightly ahead of historical averages with 93% of the harvest complete so far. The 5-year historical average is that 92% of the spring wheat crop has been harvested by this week in September.

Corn prices decreased by 6.1% over the past week ending at $6.92 per bushel, soybeans were down 3.8% to $13.36 per bushel, and wheat ended the week down 3.9% closing at $6.73 per bushel. Year-over-year corn prices are up 36.0%, soybeans are up 27.0%, and wheat is up 4.6%.

-Colvin

http://farmlandforecast.colvin-co.com/

Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

Stocks: DBA, AGCO, BAL, JJG, POT, RJA